You just don’t see something like this every winter. Once every 4-10 or so.
This is the front/system/moisture map. Look at that vertical in the plains and the big dig out of the Gulf…
RichVR
2042
But global warming is bullshit! Cause the whole world isn’t warm.
Hey Charlatan, Abiding Dude…buckle up y’all. The GFS run that just happened appears poised to dump as much as 36" of snow out in parts of Loudoun. Leesburg and Ashburn are like a snow bomb going off.
Will have to see if the EURO backs it up at midnight.
And then after that, it’s important to note that both EURO and GFS are global models. They’re good for looking at 2-5 day trends and modeling possibilities. They’re probably at the tail end of their useful life for this storm on the east coast.
But now that we’re within the 24 hour window for much of the storm hit, the short run forecasts take over. SREF and RGEM take over. I’d say NAM too, but NAM’s 8:30pm run tonight was so ludicrous that if it happens, the entire eastern seaboard will be in an unprecedented and historic state of emergency, so I’m tossing it out. Plus no other models but NAM are doing what NAM did.
(NAM’s sin–or amazing prescience if it happens–was to have the pressure cell that drives this storm “tuck in” and move straight up the coast instead of drifting east to sea around Maryland/NJ like every single model so far. NAM had that pressure cell coming straight up the Chesapeake and then cutting across Jersey and south of Long Island. Until some other model makes this storm do that, it’s a fun “what if” and nothing more.)
Currently (midnight, little after) on the east coast, and there’s rain and freezing drizzle in eastern TN and light snow coming down in western Carolina, stating to edge towards the Triangle.
Take a look. This is what the storm looks like at 2am EST.
That little comma tail that extends into the Gulf? That’s like a straw, drawing deep, deep water vapor and moisture up into the storm.
This is going to be as big as advertised.
Oh, and now we have four different weather models in a row, including short range ensemble forecasters (which are the ones to start paying more attention to now) that have NYC getting somewhere between 6-12" of snow.
Welcome to the party!
Time to post this with no more caveats. If you’re a QT3’er living in NYC, south CT, Long Island, New Jersey…as soon as you get up this morning, you need to be at a store (if you haven’t already) getting ready for this nonsense.
Too many models in the last 8 hours have taken a north and west jump to ignore. This storm went from being a DC and Baltimore dump that was going to fringe Philly to being a storm that’s going to take out everything from DC to NYC to CT. If this holds–and it’s forming up in perfect fashion to do so, in fact, it’s scary how strong this thing is building right now–it’s going to be a pretty historic snowstorm.
Lemme post this. This is a QPF projection from a short range model. These short-rangers start to paint the most accurate picture as the storm moves in. QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) is basically a measurement of how much liquid water is sitting inside a storm, and how much of that water will be discharged over a given area. And, with snow, every inch of QPF roughly equals 10 inches of snow.
And so, I’ll let y’all do the math here.
FWIW, reaction to this model run from the meteorological community has been along the lines of “Yes, NYC is going to get some significant snow…but cut those precips by at least 33% in most places, too, it’s way oversampled.” So yeah, maybe not two feet of snow in NYC, but a foot is absolutely possible.
Local stations here in the Lehigh Valley are still saying 6-12" , down near Philly where I work they are saying 12+ , my company had a billion reflective stakes put in yesterday around the lots, 2 big truckloads of salt dropped, and a front loader delivered.
State of Maryland is closing today at 1pm, employees have been given liberal leave for the day and from the look here in the office, many folks have taken them up on the offer.
I’m buckled down! My wife and I both went to the store yesterday, her for general supplies and me for my white chicken chili ingredients.
I’m also able to work from home so it’s all good.
We just moved in December, and this is the first year I’ve had a garage. Did I also mention that my driveway is (at most) one car length? So the amount of shoveling I’ll have to do is going to be about 1/3 as much as in prior years (not to mention skipping the old ‘clear the snow off the cars’ task).
Plus I’ve got a brand spanking new show shovel I bought back in December when it was in the 70s!
So bring it on, Ol’ Man Winter.
It’s been lightly sleeting/snowing here for a couple of hours without much in the way of accumulation. Already heard a couple of sirens go wailing by on the main drag, nonetheless.
#RaleighSnowpocalypse2016 hype!
Snow is booming up in to VA ahead of schedule, and bringing gigantic amounts of moisture. Should start coming down in the suburbs of DC between noon and 2 pm.
They’re closing the Federal Government offices at noon today, which is pretty wise: that’ll put the rush-hour at 11 to 2 today, which means that when it starts to get heavy around 3 PM the roads should be less-populated. That might make the difference between heavy traffic and total gridlock.
Hopefully the folks who run services like Netflix, Amazon, and whatnot are ready to switch server farms over the weekend. Hard to imagine that the ginormous Ashburn, VA AWS farm isn’t going to be at risk for extended interruption.
Dulles and Reagan both now reporting virga (precip that dies in the atmosphere before hitting the ground.)
So here’s what’s up now.
The surface low pressure driving this big blizzard boat is moving at the speed that the models showed and meteorologists predicted. What’s happening though is that the precip field out in front of it is expanding, larger than expected. That creates the illusion of a “faster” moving storm. In reality, the storm is moving at the projected speed, but the precipitation its generating is bigger. Which means more snow.
Think of it like a wargame, where tanks suddenly went from a zone of control of one hex around them to two hexes. Tanks aren’t moving faster, they’re just exerting a bigger presence.
I’m supposed to be moving from NJ to Arlington this weekend to start a new job on Monday. This storm is really messing up my shit. I appreciate the updates. Do you think I-95 will be drivable by Sunday? What about the local Virginia roads? I’m used to living in states that are well prepared for these types of storms, so I’m not totally sure what to expect down there.
edit: My job fully expects to be closed on Monday so I probably won’t start until at least Tuesday, but I would like to get down there as soon as I can.
Sunday will be really iffy, even in southern NJ and SEPA. I95 will probably be clear by really late in the day…but may have issues. Plus, it’ll be a zoo, most likely, of stranded travelers trying to get out or get into the DC area.
Monday and Tuesday most major arteries should start to be OK in DC and Arlington, but side roads are still going to be iffy. Temps will be in the 40s, so that’s good. But…if we get 2 feet of snow, side roads are still going to struggle.
Forget the crap you heard about Wednesday. DOT trucks for Maryland, DC, and Virginia are all over the place, almost like a military presence, loaded with salt and chem treatments, with plow blades ready. They’ll do as well as can be expected, but this is going to be a pretty historic snowfall.
Your employer is nuts if they think a new hire is making it in on Tuesday on an out of town move. I mean, kudos to you if you can swing it, but I’d stay in communication with them.
My experience of that part of DC/MD is that 95 and its arteries will be open fairly quickly but anything else will take more time.
The other thing is, if there aren’t widespread outages, people will be trying to go into work on Monday and Tuesday. Because the side roads may not even be passable by then, the traffic funneling onto main roads is going to create some seriously amazing gridlock, even with Metro projecting to reopen on Monday.
Thanks man. They don’t expect me to be there Tuesday, but I’d like to get started as soon as I can. Just trying to figure out what is realistic. Sounds like I might be better off taking it slower than I want to.
Especially if you’re living in Arlington. A lot of larger apartment complexes and condo complexes are hooked to parking garages, where I could see you getting in somewhat close to your schedule. But…a whole lot of Arlington is street parking, and HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA! (sorry) If that’s your situation, just ain’t no way to actually physically do the moving part. You stick a moving van or even a pickup in the road on Tuesday and someone may come at you with a hammer.
