The Mother 'Effin WEATHER Thread

[Misguided]

Strongest outside the gulf or Caribbean. If it makes it to the Florida straits without losing too much intensity in the process, it could wind up the strongest storm on record. CBS quoted a meteorologist from MIT saying it could hit 225, which is bonkers. Not sure I buy that, since it’s never happened, but the point is, it could strengthen significantly, because the water there is even warmer than in the Atlantic.

[triggercut]

Ryan Maue | weathermodels.com (RyanMaue)

That eastward track has an eyewall at hit near enough to Miami. Much better result for the Gulf coast. Not so much for the Carolinas and eastern FL.

[TimJames]

Let’s hope EGRI and UKXI are BS.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/11L_tracks_latest.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/11L_intensity_latest.png

[Woolen_Horde]

At times during Harvey, the European model outperformed humans

[TimJames]

The NHC has some helpful text explaining the forecast situation.

Irma is currently being steered by
the subtropical ridge to the north, and a general west-
northwestward motion on the south side of the ridge is expected
during the next 48-72 h. This portion of the forecast track is
little changed and is in best overall agreement with the ECMWF
model. The forecast has become more uncertain after 72 h due to
large eastward shifts by the ECMWF, Canadian, and HWRF models
related to forecasts of the mid- to upper-level trough over the
southeastern United States. The bulk of the guidance now calls for
Irma to turn northward between 78W-80W, moving near or over the
Florida east coast or the northwestern Bahamas. The official
forecast has also been shifted eastward, but out of respect for the
previous forecast and the possibility the guidance may shift back
to the west, it lies to the left of the bulk of the guidance. The
forecast now calls for landfall in south Florida between 96-120 h.
Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track,
especially at the longer ranges, since the average NHC track errors
are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.

Almost like politics. This is the first hurricane that I’ve become aware of the limits of the NHC forecast.

[sharaleo]

Let’s hope EGRI and UKXI are BS.

I assume all those tracks/codes are differing analysis and predictive models?

[TimJames]

There are so many fucking acronyms that weather geeks eat right up that I have no clue about.

[Woolen_Horde]

So a Cat-5 right off Miami pretty much is a worst-case scenario, right? The storm keeps feeding on the ocean water, but dumps monstrous amounts of rain all over Florida, while the eye continuously pushes a storm surge all over the coast. And Miami is pretty much entirely sea-level.

[dgallina]

Which one is the european model ?

[TimJames]

I’m pretty sure it’s not in there. I can’t find a single track for the European model. Just ensembles.

[triggercut]

The ECMWF is the European model.

[Juan_Raigada]

This I think shows the path according to the European model.

European model is closer to FL coast but slight miss -- instead heads directly north into Carolinas (still not good). pic.twitter.com/cc4JtPJqDq

— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) September 6, 2017

[TimJames]

Is this a bad time for a “just the tip” joke?

Really this might be the worst scenario because it maintains energy over the water and affects a huge swath of the coast.

[TimJames]

I-75 already looks a little congested on Google Maps. Maybe people from the Keys and Miami chose west instead of north to evacuate.

[dgallina]

Thank you

[TimJames]

I had never seen these NHC discussions before. They are really helpful.

Irma is moving west-northwestward or 285/14 kt. A strong high
pressure ridge extending from the central Atlantic westward is
expected to keep Irma moving west-northwestward during the next 2
to 3 days. The track guidance is in good agreement during this
period and the NHC track is along the southern edge of the guidance
envelope in best agreement with the ECMWF and HFIP corrected
consensus model. After that time, a shortwave trough moving
southward over the east-central United States is expected to erode
the western portion of the ridge. As a result, Irma is forecast to
turn northwestward and northward, but there is still a fair amount
of uncertainty regarding the exact timing and location of
recurvature. The NHC forecast has been shifted eastward to be in
better agreement with the latest model guidance, however it should
be noted that there are numerous GEFS and ECMWF ensemble members
that take Irma over and/or west of Florida. The updated NHC track
is in best agreement with the latest ECMWF ensemble mean. Users are
reminded that the average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are
about 175 and 225 statue miles, respectively.

That looks really bad.

[CraigM]

The Virgin Islands are in for a beating

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Brace for Hurricane Irma

People forget its part of the US, because there is so few people there. Hope they are all right in the islands.

Will see how they survive first hand too, since I’m heading there in February.

[YakAttack]

If only we could move all these climate change denialists to one of those islands before landfall…

One can dream.

Prayer is the answer to global warming of course.

[Timex]

So a Cat-5 right off Miami pretty much is a worst-case scenario, right?

Ya, basically those guys are turbo fucked in that case.

[stusser]

Oddly, you didn’t see any of the fire n’ brimstone preachers claiming Harvey was divine punishment for the godless homosexuals and deviants in Houston as they previously did for NYC and New Orleans and presumably will for Miami.