That’s perfectly normal. Well, as normal as things can be for a hurricane. I tell you, reading the discussions (which are separate from the official forecast) are fascinating, because you come to understand how much of an art forecasting is and why the official forecast is sometimes an unlikely scenario made for public health and safety reasons or because of model uncertainty. There isn’t just one model or one forecast, but they have to give one and only one. I don’t envy their job, honestly.
stusser
2755
They don’t give only one forecast, those “blobs” are the result of simulations run many thousands of times showing where the event will probably end up. It could be anywhere within that blob, which is why it gets wider as you move your time window further out.
Dude. Semantics.
The point is, they don’t say in the official forecast “well, it might do this, or it may do that, or it could…”
So much scary uncertainty right now with Irma. Stay safe all you QT3 folks in PR and FL.
Hopefully the storm will weaken and/or miss landfall by the time it makes it to Florida, and the worst we’ll see is some pissed off Disney vacationers and a whole slew of entertaining “A Florida man” stories. Fingers crossed.
Here’s the acronym list, by the way.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/data/nhc_model_list.txt
Apparently it’s the Brits who think we’re all going to die in a Cat 5 storm that never weakens.
Richard Branson is going to use the opportunity to become the world’s richest drunken gopher.
See! Fake news, just like Rush warned us!
Clearly, Harvey was caused by the godless homosexuals in NYC and New Orleans, and only affected those in Houston.
Why does the liberal media do this? For chrissake, CNN!
Enidigm
2762
Quaro
2763
Barbuda sounds catastrophic. 90% structure damage. Flat island. Where do you even hide? :(
Although going up the east coast is not a pleasant scenario to think about, having the models narrow possibilities like that may help convince people to get the hell out (perhaps indirectly as the forecast becomes a bit more targeted, e.g. a narrower cone). It’s going to be ugly. Even uglier if the eye stays off shore (that would keep the NE quadrant away from people in Florida, but presumably the storm would maintain more strength for when it hits GA/SC).
Be interesting to see what the update says in 10 minutes.
Jose has earned the Hurricane achievement.
CraigM
2768
The Atlantic storm engine is in full FUCK YOU mode, apparently.
And Tropical Storm Katia, which was mucking around in the western Gulf, has now earned the Hurricane achievement.
A whole lot of conflicting reports re: Barbuda. I’d take all of them with a grain of salt right now and be careful with retweets.
KevinC
2771
Please tell me that this, at least, is fake news.
Clay
2773
Reddit piled on the woman whose tweets were posted above… death and rape threats, etc. She deleted most of them. Sad to read her stream now. Reddit fucking sucks.
