There’s a chance that it is.
Quaro
2775
The woman reported what the PM said. It has not been confirmed.
https://twitter.com/ldobsonhughes/status/905533597511274496
Enidigm
2776
The video reports from St. Martin looked dramatic but survivable. More buildings standing than i expected, though of course widespread damage. Partly due to concrete-style construction. I hope the same for Barbuda. Storm surge i worry about there though… I remind myself that there are stronger tornadic winds.
Saba, the island my gf did a whole summer on for research purposes, weathered surprisingly well. No reports of injuries, but some structural damage, including power loss island-wide. But like St. Martin, lots of steel reinforced concrete structures there, plus huge mountains shielding many towns. But even the city deep in the valley came through more or less okay.
They’ve been forecasting it to weaken for at least 48 hours now. Maybe 72+. Hasn’t happened. I’m flagellating a deceased equine here, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see that continue. Maybe one of the individual models/groups has been a good predictor, but I’m not sure.
Zephyr
2780
When I came into work this morning, I did see some reports that the four strongest buildings in St Martin were destroyed. My first thought was, uhh structural folks, didn’t we just design one of the strongest buildings? Word around the office is that a lot of people took shelter in one of the university buildings we designed for a Cat 5 and the news may not be entirely correct.
Timex
2781
Guys, I think it’s time we started talking about human sacrifice.
We’ve angered the gods. We must atone for our sins.
CraigM
2782
I nominate we start with the Orange One, after all if the buck stops at the top…
If it was built recently, perhaps the info on the strongest buildings was out of date?
French Interior Minister Gérard Collomb said some of the strongest buildings on the island of 75,000 people had been destroyed, boding ill for weaker structures on St. Martin.
“In terms of material damage, the four strongest buildings on the island of St. Martin have been destroyed,” which meant that weaker structures likely had been damaged or destroyed, he told reporters.
Clay
2784
Barbuda does look like it was pretty well pummeled. Hope they don’t discover more dead there.
Zephyr
2785
Yeah, I poked around the school website and sounds like everyone that made it to the shelter is safe.
**Posted 9/6 at 10:35 AM ET
We have made contact with our Sint Maarten campus. All students who sheltered in Building 2 and the on-campus forms have been confirmed safe and accounted for. Inclement weather continues and we will more more information available as soon as possible.
Our Florida office was in contact with campus until early this morning. Nearly 400 community members are sheltering with us and they were in good spirits as Irma approached. AUC colleagues were checking in with everyone, providing support, and helping our community weather the storm together. Building 2, where we setup shelter, and the on-campus dorms were engineered and outfitted to sustain a category 5 hurricane.
I’d say it looks more like tornado damage if I didn’t know better.
It’s also weird that Harvey dumped so much water and this one hasn’t. Is there flooding? I guess every hurricane is unique.
Ack I’ve always wanted a hip roof but never had to replace a roof yet. Meanwhile, it looks like every intact roof there is a hip roof. Argh
I need to install storm shutters too. We’re dumb in this state. Rather than getting an insurance discount, we should require these things.
I had the same thought, given there were demolished houses right next to those that seemed intact.
I guess islands also don’t flood as much since they are mostly convex instead of concave.
If Irma slides just a little bit more to the east, the US may miss the full brunt of it. She’ll still hit the Carolinas, but perhaps as a Cat 2 or lower, and without doing too much brush-by damage to FL.
If it doesn’t interact significantly with Florida, it isn’t liable to weaken like that while cruising up the Gulf Stream (unless other conditions change–see below)
I’m looking at a bunch of models in the Euro composite that show that it could be Cat 2 or 3 even without making landfall in FL if it tracks east and hits South Carolina just above the Georgia border.
And while that’s severe, it’s not Category 5 eyewall hit on Miami severe.
Yeah, I just came back to post that they forecast an increase in wind shear late in the forecast.
The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one except at day 5 when stronger shear should cause more weakening.
Finally, a drop to 180, pressure at 921. Hopefully that trend continues.
