The Mother 'Effin WEATHER Thread

Quaro · 2017-09-07T06:49:09.353Z

What’s a good site to see the model breakdown?

Left_Empty · 2017-09-07T07:40:07.772Z

Keraunos (KeraunosObs)

La plage de Maho Beach sous des conditions extrêmes à #SaintMartin. Vidéo complète 2017 Ptztv youtu.be/M2Zb2rtuzUY #Irma https://t.co/SMcxoa6LoI

11:20 AM - 6 Sep 2017 1.7K 2.8K

I have had my share of tropical storms, but this is just insane.

TimJames · 2017-09-07T11:43:01.105Z

More model uncertainty again, except the Euro model and NHC guidance remain right up the east Florida coast.

After 48 h, a mid- to upper-level trough digging into the eastern United States is expected to create a break in the ridge and allow Irma to turn northward. The timing of the turn is the most important question and one still filled with uncertainty. The UKMET, UK Ensemble mean, and the NAVGEM are the models showing the latest turn, and they forecast Irma to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and near the west coast of the Florida Peninsula. The ECMWF and ECMWF Ensemble mean are in the middle of the model pack and show Irma moving over the southeastern portion of the Florida Peninsula. The GFS, Canadian, and GFS Ensemble mean show the earliest turn and show Irma moving east of the coast of Florida toward the southeastern United States. The new forecast track will best follow the ECMWF, as well as the Florida State Superensemble and the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and it calls for the center to move over portions of the southeastern Florida Peninsula between 72-96 h and then across the Atlantic into southern South Carolina by 120 h. Users are again reminded not to focus on the exact track since the average NHC track errors at days 3, 4, and 5 are about 120, 175, and 225 miles, respectively.

Irma should remain in warm-water, and a low shear environment for about the next three days, and thus is expected to remain a strong hurricane, most likely Category 5 or 4. Fluctuations in intensity are likely during the time due to internal eyewall replacement cycles. The large-scale models suggest that shear could increase starting at about 72 hr. However, due to the uncertainty as to whether this will happen, the intensity forecast keeps Irma at category 4 strength until landfall in Florida. The 96-120 h points now have a lower intensity due to the forecast of shear and land interaction, but Irma is still expected to be a hurricane when it reaches the southeastern United States.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/11L_tracks_latest.png

lordkosc · 2017-09-07T14:57:34.698Z

HNLMS Zeeland had a helicopter capture footage of St Maarten yesterday.

Mr_Bismarck · 2017-09-07T15:08:04.193Z

Check out this crazy motherfucker.

“It’s a bit windy, but it’s probably fine!”

I presume “reefer” isn’t describing the ship.

rowe33 · 2017-09-07T15:10:21.386Z

Don’t worry everyone. I assume the President has been carefully studying the models in order to best assist the country. Especially the European ones. He’s been preparing for this moment his entire life, believe me.

arrendek · 2017-09-07T15:22:11.203Z

Sea warnings from a couple days ago said 12 meter waves. It’s hard to believe anyone would venture into that. Scary.

stusser · 2017-09-07T15:25:36.567Z

rowe33:

Don’t worry everyone. I assume the President has been carefully studying the models in order to best assist the country. Especially the European ones. He’s been preparing for this moment his entire life, believe me.

So far his support has been appropriate. He even reached across the aisle to democrats yesterday, and is taking an insane amount of heat for it. There’s plenty of batshit behavior to attack Trump on, no need to invent new ones when he’s actually doing OK.

Skipper · 2017-09-07T15:30:16.576Z

Mr_Bismarck:

I presume “reefer” isn’t describing the ship.

Not sure if joking … but yep, refrigerated ship, and that pilot must be on reefer as well.

arrendek:

Sea warnings from a couple days ago said 12 meter waves.

Holy fuck! That is insane.

rowe33 · 2017-09-07T15:33:37.175Z

I can’t make a joke about his years of beauty pageant ownership just because he’s done a couple things any president would do?

stusser · 2017-09-07T15:37:06.899Z

Heh, I didn’t get your joke. Whoosh.

Mr_Bismarck · 2017-09-07T15:39:45.723Z

arrendek:

Sea warnings from a couple days ago said 12 meter waves. It’s hard to believe anyone would venture into that. Scary.

Good news for the Reefer! Swells are currently “only” six to nine meters.

arrendek · 2017-09-07T15:43:05.503Z

I just started getting into this and that’s an average of some sort for wave height, I guess? From the marine advisory for the region just NW of Puerto Rico:

AMZ125 Zone Forecast

AMZ125-080315-
Atlantic S of 22N between 65W and 70W including Puerto Rico
Trench-
1108 AM EDT Thu Sep 7 2017

…HURRICANE WARNING…

.TODAY…HURRICANE CONDITIONS. SE winds 95 to 115 kt. Seas
43 to 46 ft. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
.TONIGHT…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SE winds 45 to
50 kt, diminishing to 25 to 30 kt late. Seas 21 ft,
subsiding to 14 ft late. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms.

See that “Seas 21ft”?

From the info that leads into the forecast:

Seas given as significant wave height, which is the average
height of the highest 1/3 of the waves. Individual waves may be
more than twice the significant wave height.

So, basically, AHHHHHHHHHHHH

Edit: missed the seas 43-46 feet bit. Jesus

Edit 2: I’m assuming that the reefer man headed out early enough to not get hit with the worst of that though. So you’re probably more accurate for what he would’ve been seeing as he exited the area.

arrendek · 2017-09-07T15:45:28.213Z

Also saw this:

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and large breaking
waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS by the
following amounts within the hurricane warning area near and to the
north of the center of Irma. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Turks and Caicos Islands…15 to 20 ft
Southeastern and central Bahamas…15 to 20 ft
Northwestern Bahamas…5 to 10 ft
Northern coast of the Dominican Republic…3 to 5 ft
Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave…1 to 3 ft
Northern coast of Cuba in the warning area…5 to 10 ft

rowe33 · 2017-09-07T15:45:28.313Z

I do give him some small amount of credit for working with the democrats, even if it’s bound to end soon.

Skipper · 2017-09-07T15:46:35.183Z

Mr_Bismarck:

Swells are currently “only” six to nine meters

I’ve been in 4 meter seas on a large ship. There is no way in hell you could pay me to be in even 6-9 meter seas. I feel for that crew.

Mr_Bismarck · 2017-09-07T15:56:29.899Z

A kiteboarding place in Cabarete still has their webcam going if you want to see what their beach looks like at the moment.

Probably not the best time to go kiteboarding though.

arrendek · 2017-09-07T16:08:11.333Z

Mr_Bismarck:

Probably not the best time to go kiteboarding though.

God damn I lost it on this comment. Good thing I wasn’t drinking.

Clay · 2017-09-07T16:11:29.340Z

Skipper:

I’ve been in 4 meter seas on a large ship.

Closest I could find.

arrendek · 2017-09-07T16:14:25.770Z

But don’t worry, they really like it!