The Mother 'Effin WEATHER Thread

Clay · 2017-09-08T10:16:36.459Z

“We should be naming hurricanes after Exxon and Chevron, not Harvey and Irma.”

That’s the environmental group 350.org’s takeaway from a peer-reviewed study published today in the journal Climatic Change, which seeks to hold individual fossil fuel corporations accountable for causing global warming. The study’s authors say they...

TimJames · 2017-09-08T11:08:21.926Z

You guys love your disaster porn and politics! :-)

Meanwhile the storm is projected to be a “mere” hurricane in Orlando now instead of a major hurricane. I like this weakening trend.

Also:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/11L_tracks_latest.png

Fuck yo evacuation destination!

TimJames · 2017-09-08T11:54:10.629Z

Down to 150. This concentric eyewall thing sounds weird. It appears it will weaken, and then get strong again.

Left_Empty · 2017-09-08T12:02:55.896Z

The only thing predictable about storms is how unpredictable they are. We had a pretty major typhoon last month that ended up being merely an annoyance when it stroke us directly, while it sent huge trombs of water in the remote and unlucky north-east part of the country.

Mark_Crump · 2017-09-08T13:18:12.967Z

Up until Irene and Sandy, I didnt mind hurricanes. In the northeast, they’ve lost a lot of their punch and aren’t hugely worse than a good winter nor-easter. The coastal communities take a pounding, but a lot of them do with winter storms anyway.

It feels like Sandy and Irene we really felt the effects of the climate change and even northern storms packed a punch.

triggercut · 2017-09-08T13:27:39.843Z

twitter.com

Jonathan Erdman (wxjerdman)

Some of the highest heat content still lies ahead for #Irma. No reason to tick downward outside of eyewall replacements before landfall. https://t.co/sQWWCQwZu2

9:53 AM - 8 Sep 2017 32 29

Enidigm · 2017-09-08T13:30:22.622Z

TimJames:

Down to 150. This concentric eyewall thing sounds weird. It appears it will weaken, and then get strong again.

Out of the loop on this “concentric eyewall”, would someone mind explaining?

gruntled · 2017-09-08T13:39:11.659Z

Eyewall replacement cycles, also called concentric eyewall cycles, naturally occur in intense tropical cyclones, generally with winds greater than 185 km/h (115 mph), or major hurricanes (Category 3 or above). When tropical cyclones reach this intensity, and the eyewall contracts or is already sufficiently small, some of the outer rainbands may strengthen and organize into a ring of thunderstorms—an outer eyewall—that slowly moves inward and robs the inner eyewall of its needed moisture and angular momentum. Since the strongest winds are in a cyclone’s eyewall, the tropical cyclone usually weakens during this phase, as the inner wall is “choked” by the outer wall. Eventually the outer eyewall replaces the inner one completely, and the storm may re-intensify.

Hurricane Allen in 1980 went through repeated eyewall replacement cycles, fluctuating between Category 5 and Category 3 status

– wikipedia

triggercut · 2017-09-08T14:12:53.116Z

twitter.com

Jim Cantore (JimCantore)

Some internal structure issues taking place with Irma. Its unknown how that will impact #Irma long term. Stay on point w/major cane landfall twitter.com/NASA_SPoRT/sta…

2:11 PM - 8 Sep 2017 200 120

MrGrumpy · 2017-09-08T15:42:53.594Z

Barbuda is about to get by Jose, now a Cat 4 Hurricane.

twitter.com

Laura Bicker (BBCLBicker)

The aim is to get everyone off the island in the next few hours. It's a race against time before Jose comes through https://t.co/79QFa7IK2h

2:37 PM - 8 Sep 2017 1.6K 1.7K

SlainteMhath · 2017-09-08T17:16:17.158Z

My family has rental property on the beach outside of Tampa Bay (Indian Shores). My dad was down there this week for work, and swung by yesterday to bolt down the storm shutters and make sure everything was inside and secured. Even though Tampa wasn’t forecast to get a direct hit, everyone there is apparently still pretty worried and taking no chances. Dad says lots of stuff is closed and boarded/bolted up already for the weekend. He was supposed to hop a flight out this afternoon, having moved it up from departing Saturday afternoon (by which time nothing will be flying in South Florida).

Stay safe QT3 Floridians. Check in over the weekend when you can!

KallDrexx · 2017-09-08T17:32:20.803Z

twitter.com

John Morales (JohnMoralesNBC6)

I repeat: eyewall replacement cycle completed. New Irma eye is nearly double the size it was yesterday. Many more to experience dreaded eye.

2:59 PM - 8 Sep 2017 260 380

Since the replacement cycle is complete, from what I gather that could mean strength gathering will resume :-/

triggercut · 2017-09-08T17:33:35.437Z

That was definitely the worry I saw a lot of forecasters expressing – that it could easily get organized and build up as it runs north from Cuba through warm waters.