2916

Graphics suggesting how to shoot at a hurricane have sprung up online, with the suggestion that if you fire correctly the bullet might not come back and kill you.

2917
2918

Jose looks like he’s going to turn out to sea after smacking the Leewards.

2919
2920

And 25 minutes after that, half the eye is over Cuba heading wsw (well, mostly west, but a little south). Not good for Cuba, but ought to weaken the storm some.

Correction, it is over an archipelago, not Cuba proper. It is headed that way, though if the course holds.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/mobile/sat_zoom_2/ge_gmex_loop.html

2921

Welcome to the club. We have only been in our new Lake Mary house for 3 weeks :( Hoping both our houses stand strong.

Edit: Oh yeah and it’s officially a cat 5 storm again.

Edit2 Looking at the Key west Duval street live cam on Youtube and the past 3 hours, man there are a lot of people still there (where a lot compared to the none I think should still be there).

2922

Ooh, this one has sound.

2923

That’s the thing. It isn’t going to “weaken” to any point that makes this non-catastrophic on its current path. This storm is going to have enough open, warm water as it turns north from Cuba to reorganize and hit FL very, very hard.

2924

Too creepy to see people driving around on scooters and stuff.

2925

I see them too… they are playing with fate.

2926
2927
2928

New GFS model just went back east, which is a little scary. NAM moved east a little too.

The GFS track means the eye misses most of NE Cuba, which also would be bad.

Unfortunately, by the time we get our next EURO solution we’ll probably have a 90% solution on where she’s hitting.

https://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at201711_model.gif

2929

Yeah, if you load the loop I posted above, the eye is skimming right along the coast of Cuba…dammit,

2930

Here’s a better look at that troubling GFS model (click for GIF)

One issue that gives pause: traditionally GFS gets much more accurate at 12 hours and in forecasts. ECMWF is usually much better at 24-72 hours.

Normally I’d dismiss the GFS out of hand as an outlier, but we’re kind of inside the window where starts to show more accuracy. Still–it’s the only model showing that track as of now.

2931

Why is tracking east worse? Storm surge is worse on the eastern side?

2932

Closer to populated areas.

2933

What Ginger said. Puts Miami/Palm Beach back in a bad situation, especially on storm surge.

2934

We are getting a new Euro right now. Doesn’t sound too hot.

2935

That GFS definitely looking like an outlier.

This is NOT good for Tampa/St. Pete. At all. Definitely a better outlook for Miami/SE FL.