CraigM
4313
The Virgin Islands are getting nailed as well.
Was just there in April and the marks of the last hurricanes are still clearly visible. Things are barely returning to normal, as there is still many places were services are only partially restored.
Yikes. At least it isn’t hurricane strength yet.
Hurricane maps are never accurate for that far out.
Tman
4315
Man I would pay some serious grift to Mother Nature if she veered just a bit south & hit Mar a Lago head on.
KevinC
4316
That’s when you know we would nuke a hurricane.
Nah, he’d just use it to grift some damage compensation, like he did last time.
Damnit, the storm keeps slowing down as it hits Florida. While they can’t predict where in florida it’s going to hit if it’s central florida or north then there’s a very high chance now that I’ll be stuck in VA more than 24 hours due to how slow it’s projected to move once in land. It needs to commit to slowing down a lot more so I can make it home before it hits, or I need to figure out if I should just cancel my trip before tomorrow morning.
I would either get out of town to escape or cancel your trip to stay. Expecting to get out and back seems highly unlikely.
Yeah we went ahead and cancelled the trip womp womp. Now that I did that it’ll probably hit south florida and not disrupt flights, but I really did not want to be stuck in VA. Especially since we were flying a budget airline that only flies 2 days a week, meaning if they cancelled our monday flight we were probably stuck until friday.
The way I rationalize it is if bad weather misses me and I overprepared or cancelled a trip for nothing, then that’s still a GREAT thing because I don’t have to deal with the aftermath!
Yeah and more of the point, the $200 in airfare we are losing is nothing compared to the potential 3-4 days of extra hotels + food + PTO.
In other news looking at the latest spagetti models is fun
Almost all the models are concentrating on me (yesterday they were scattered all over the place), but since it’s now coming in from the south instead of directly east it won’t be as bad at home. Of course that sucks more for the people south east of me.
Edit: And then I saw this
Was looking at that article a few minutes. Feels like they are overstating the case a bit to me. There’s pretty good consensus (there’s always variation after all) on the rough forecast track. Yeah, some models show it moving more slowly. It basically comes down to how quickly the high pressure ridge to the north forms, I think.
jpinard
4324
I hope it’s not the NVGI model.
I think they just didn’t show enough data, but watching Tropical Tidbits and some of the exact models that the GFS and Euro showing they all show a lot of different things, even it hitting south most Florida. His video has a good discussion on why there’s so much uncertainty (essentially a high pressure system forming high up above Florida may push it to south florida on some models).
Right, it’s that high pressure that creates the turn to the West. The strength of that ridge and how quickly it forms is a major factor in the path the storm ultimately takes.
Oh hey look it slowed down again so most likely I would have been able to get back in time. Oh well.
For anyone interested, today’s Tropical Tidbits is pretty fascinating about why we still don’t know where it will hit the US and there’s more of a possibility now it can hit landfall even in SC.
However it does seem certain that it’s going to sit over Grand Bahama for 2 days and it doesn’t sound like GB is large enough to disrupt the strength of the storm. Oh yeah and it’s already a Category 4, so while there’s a chance it’ll weaken before then that’s a very not good situation for them.
In other news it’s a good thing I cancelled my vacation as I just found out that earlier today they closed the local Orlando airports as of 2am monday, so I definitely would have been stuck in VA, maybe till the end of the week.
There’s a definite eastward shift now, a lot like Matthew. The storm is super slow though.
Yup, some combination of decreased speed and weakening of the western side of the ridge to the north. If the storm hadn’t slowed down, it could have easily slammed into Florida.
Damn…max sustained winds up to 180 this morning.
