Silly me, I was talking about AFTER landfall.
To answer the original question, it formed in the Carribean rather than further out, so it hasn’t been tracking for very long.
Houngan
5603
All signs look the same to worse this morning. Eye is forming up, intensification is starting, and some models shifted slightly East, from what I’m reading. Official forecast went from 3 to 4 at landfall.
If we could only get Donald Trump drawing one of his magical maps that redirects the storm. Thanks, Joe!
The thought of another Katrina is just unbearable.
I came to the US in 2010, and lived on the Gulf Coast after the one-two punch of Katrina and the economic crisis. There were an awful lot of people who had lost absolutely everything.
Houngan
5606
Oof, current graphic suggests that we need an unlikely center hit to the far left of the cone for NO to avoid the surge, but outer wind speeds are still indeterminate. Ida has done what everyone thought, starting to intensify, though the eye is still a bit open. Here’s hoping it stays open and unravels well before the landfall.
RichVR
5607
Last forecast I saw says possibly cat 4 at landfall. Lots of warm water in the gulf.
Houngan
5608
The NHC is still the gold standard for the best aggregation and careful consideration of data, it has it up to 130mph, which is the bottom of Cat 4, so it’s definitely in play. That said, NHC is usually a bit conservative on the downside from my general impression of watching the 2020 season. The big thing right now is if it forms up quickly for maximum extraction of energy from the Gulf, they pretty much know the cone at this point, and there’s no argument that conditions are horrible/perfect for maximum intensification, but the storm itself is still a bit disorganized which doesn’t pull energy as efficiently. The lucky result seems to be the storm stays unstructured, stays moving fast so it can’t pick up every little bit of energy, and slides West far enough to spare NOLA the worst of the surge up the inlet on the east side. Worst case is the opposite of all that, and I don’t know enough to say how likely the coin toss looks.
They have to be, from a public health standpoint. They have to give a single forecast. The one they chose will often present the worst case scenario (such as projecting a cat4 when most models predict cat3) or shifting a track more toward a large population center than might otherwise be called for. Reading the discussions can be very illuminating in that regard.
While NO will be in the NE quadrant of the storm, that isn’t the worst case scenario for NO. Being just East of the city would be worse (I.e. Katrina)
Not necessarily. A direct hit is obviously the worst case scenario, but being in the NE quadrant is only slightly worse.
With New Orleans it’s not the wind, it’s the water. Much of the city is already below sea level (the average elevation is between 1 and 2 feet below mean sea level), and a strong storm surge combined with heavy rains can cause catastrophic flooding. Atlantic hurricanes spin counter-clockwise, so being on the NE side of the storm greatly increases the storm surge, versus being on the western side where the wind literally blows the water away from land. The eastern side also has the vast majority of rainfall, so being in the NE quadrant is definitely not where you’d want to be. Also, in this particular situation the predicted turn to the NE after landfall could cause a train effect in which rain bands dump massive amounts of water over the same area, which could exacerbate an already bad situation.
If I lived in New Orleans, I’d get the hell out while I could.
Houngan
5612
To noun “unstructure” the storm is holding onto its unstructure, which is a good thing. Still early in the going but I’ll take whatever good signs I can get.
Bad news is that it seems to be shifting East a bit, and still has time to form up and explode.
Yes, but if the storm is East of the city, like Katrina, I’d think it could push that much more water into the city. I’m aware the water is the issue. That was the point.
I’ve heard 15 foot storm surge, and 18-24" of rain for the coast and quite a bit inland.
Houngan
5615
It formed up and exploded. Best of luck to Louisiana.
Houngan
5616
It’s the East side of the storm that pushes the most water due to rotation, so a slight miss to the West produces more surge. That said, it’s tracking far enough west that NO shouldn’t take as relatively bad a hit as was possible.
The latest data indicates that this thing has sustained winds right around 156 mph and is still becoming more organized only hours from landfall. The eye is still shrinking and becoming better defined. At this point it’s probably a cat 5 but the NHC is traditionally very conservative about declaring cat 5s. For Andrew, they didn’t declare it a cat 5 until long after it was over. It doesn’t really matter, this thing is going to be devastating. It looks like it will intensify right up to landfall.
The hospitals are full of covid patients in New Orleans and with loss of power and severe flooding from 15+ inches of rain, things could turn very tragic there. I hope everyone that could evacuate has done so.
Houngan
5618
Yeah, a major power outage is the primary risk to NO now, they’re still going to catch a hell of a lot of rain and wind but avoided the worst of the surge. Houma, however, is going to get a direct hit and Ida isn’t expected to weaken over “land” (marsh) until well north of the ocean. Houma might get hit with a full Cat 5.
Looks like an eyewall replacement cycle is just starting. That will stop the strengthening and keep it at a strong cat 4 for landfall. It will still be very, very bad. It does look like NO has dodged a major bullet. Tornadoes in the NE quadrant are something to be worried about along with flooding and power outages, though. It will be a long day down there in LA.
I’m referring to the shape of the coastline.
