6084

The storm is doing something unusual where it’s getting weaker as it approaches land. It might only be a cat 1 by the time it hits, although of course that can change.

The storm surge is the real issue, plus the rain since the state is already waterlogged.

6085

Right, the bigger issue is the Eastern side will be scraping the coast while it’s still a major storm, so the surge is going to likely be intense. Still a few days, it’s not out of the question for it to veer enough West to significantly decrease the impact. Of course, the opposite is also true.

6086

Well… if it veers West it may decrease the impact on Florida. But it will increase the impact on, say, Louisiana.

6087

Most of the damage from Harvey was that it parked itself right off the coast and basically dumped a large amount of the Gulf of Mexico onto Houston in the form of rain, right?

6088

By the current forecasts, which are remarkably good these days, that’s not much of a risk. By the time it’s even with Tampa it will be weakening a bunch, it’s more a question of where it is right before that. Hitting the panhandle as a Cat 1 is preferable to it being a Cat 3 and sawblading the West Coast of Florida.

Edit: Apologies, the track has moved considerably East, Tampa is now in bad, likely trouble.

6089

Expecting 5 to 10 foot storm surge in Tampa Bay. The bay is shallow. Very bad news.

Edit: Artemis will be rolled back to the VAB.

6090

5 to 10 seems like it’s a NHS report behind, FWIW. Not being Chicken Little but during 2020 and 2021 I followed way too many storms, and the tracks suggest a harder hit. Could be that it gets a F1 eye instead of surge, and the surge wrecks the southern areas, but man the new track looks rough.

6091

Ugh, yes. My parents live in St Pete, they’re getting evac warnings. And they just got back from a trip up to Illinois, if this stupid storm had showed up last weekend, they wouldn’t have even been home!

6092

Latest weather shows a stationary front North of Tampa. That means that the storm will slow and maybe move more to the East. Tampa is expecting its worst storm in 100 years. But that’s the new normal. Bigger storms and more unpredictable.

6093

I hope they’re heading out. I don’t think they’re going to die or anything but it’s probably going to be a mess there for a bit.

6094

Ian strengthened to category 3 overnight; tracking towards west-central coast of Fl.

6095

Well, on the bright side they were home long enough to deploy the storm shutters or whatever other measures to try and prepare the property.

6096

It’s gonna be a bad one. Track is down to where it hits from Ft. Myers to Tampa, not much chance of otherwise, probably a mid-3 on impact. Cape Coral will likely get the surge, Tampa the eye.

6097

Is that a good thing or a bad thing, relatively speaking?

6098

No idea, probably a bit good as it will be decreasing in strength and the buildings are likely built for hurricanes, for the most part. Not much you can do against surge if you’re living at sea level, so wherever gets the worst of the surge is probably going to be the damage center.

6099

We’re four days from October and it’s 80F in Seattle. Unreal.

6100

What’s the average end of September day like up your way? We hit 90 down here today, yet another record high.

6101

Bit of a mixed bag after Cuba landfall, the eye stayed very structured so intensification is expected. The timeline of wind shear is compromised because an Eastern turn suggests it will make landfall sooner than expected in earlier tracks. This means that the eye is poised to hit sooner, but more South of Tampa, but also sooner, so less time for that shear to weaken it before landfall. Highest probability, the eye will hit between Tampa and Ft. Myers, but also will be a bit stronger than hoped. This guy is the equivalent of 538, a non-professional who is a professional, and unlike political polling etc. is dealing with hard data and science rather than social data, so what he says is pretty solid:

6102

Just read the average high in Sept is 69 historically here in the Seattle area. This year a little over 75 average. Been great.

6103

We got off to a bit of a slow start with the summer, though. It was pretty cool up until late June, wasn’t it?