Yeah, we got lucky with that cold line that brought the storms in here in D/FW.
Interesting article about basements in Oklahoma:
Looks like the general thought about clay and groundwater tables may not be as bad (or hampering) as I originally thought.
— Alan
Moderate risk for severe weather in a smallish zone for northwest Texas and the lower panhandle. Prime chase country, actually.
— Alan
Edit:
ALTHOUGH MIXING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE RICH
GULF MOISTURE PLUME…RESULTING IN LOWERING SURFACE DEW
POINTS…VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE AOA 2500 J/KG WILL
PROMOTE RAPID SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT ONCE INITIATION OCCURS. LARGE TO
GIANT HAIL IS QUITE LIKELY WHERE THIS OCCURS.
Love the end of that quote–“large to giant hail”.
What’s that, golf ball and larger?
I’m thinking “giant” refers to baseball-size and larger. 4"+ hail would not be out of the question.
And the first warning of the day. Okay so that’s not in great chasing conditions–it’s kinda over the Palo Duro canyon complex.
— Alan
Last week the Texas weather was kind of a bust; small tornadoes developed but the cells weren’t particularly exciting after awhile. Didn’t even hear anything about giant hail.
Today there’s a particularly good chance for severe weather in the central plains, especially around southern Nebraska and northern Kansas:
12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG AIR MASS
DESTABILIZATION /I.E. AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000-4000
J PER KG/ WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OWING TO VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES ATOP A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY LOWEST-100-MB
MEAN MIXING RATIOS OF 13.5-14.5 G/KG. EXPLOSIVE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OVER N-CNTRL KS/S-CNTRL
NEB…NEAR THE SURFACE TRIPLE POINT WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
MAXIMIZED. HERE…FORECAST HODOGRAPHS SHOW PRONOUNCED VEERING OF
WINDS WITH HEIGHT WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND EFFECTIVE
SRH OF 200-300+ M2/S2 BY THIS EVENING. INTENSE SUPERCELLS APPEAR
LIKELY WITH THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES /SOME POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT/
AND VERY LARGE HAIL. STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO A SEWD-MOVING MCS
TONIGHT WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS PERSISTING
ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS AND WRN/CNTRL MO.
— Alan
A couple of tornadoes were reported today, including some fairly large ones as predicted, in northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. This video was shot from inside TIV2 of a very large tornado in Nebraska (I believe). I think the video also ends right around the time Sean Casey reported that the turret hatch blew open and the IMAX camera was knocked from its housing:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LobCDYO78Us
One amazing thing is just how long it lasts. The mobile instrument package (mesonet I think) they carried on the top measured 150 mph before it got ripped off. They are not in optimal conditions as usually they’d like to be pointed at it, not arranged broadside or at least at a bad angle of attack. But it just keeps going and going–you manage to see chunks of hay and all kinds of other crap get swept by, and there’s some kind of bright red flash near the end that have no idea what it was. It also gets tremendously dark.
Also, this year, for whatever reason, Herb Stein is now driving the TIV2. Herb is a seasoned tornado chaser/driver, as he drove Dr. Josh Wurman’s doppler truck patrol all around tornado alley for years and years in their various guises (VORTEX2, various CSWR gigs and probably ROTATE 2012), and is well known as kind of a sage and cool dude (and he and Sean Casey go back to when TIV was attached to Wurman all the time). Anyway, it’s still interesting to see–maybe Wurman requires it now or something (as since he may still be providing funding for the next Tornado Alley movie), and because the TIV’s driving is what got Casey in trouble in the first place (a chase I happened to be on and was nearby to witness second-hand). Pretty sure that’s about as close he’ll ever get and that was a once-in-a-lifetime experience he’ll never forget.
A “tornado outbreak” is starting to be tossed around as a phrase to describe Wednesday/Thursday in the central plains. Conditions will be fairly ripe yet again, similar to the day Moore got hit.
— Alan
Apparently shit is about to jump off, per what Alan said. Kansas and surrounding as well as potential in N. NY.
Definitely a few tornadoes yesterday but nothing outside of one or two particularly nasty.
SPC revised their forecasting again, and central-to-eastern Oklahoma now under the gun for the next two days.
— Alan
Yesterday wound up being not horrific, with storms only producing small or mild tornadoes in Oklahoma despite reports of bigger monsters that still have yet to be confirmed (they were generally not filmed and reports had them shrouded in rain at best). In fact, Arkansas got a lot more yesterday with more damage.
Today things are shaping up to be potentially bad in central/eastern Oklahoma. Reports are that the SPC may be issuing a high risk warning for this afternoon.
— Alan
A “particularly dangerous situation” Tornado Watch will be issued for the bulk of central Oklahoma soon if not already:
SUMMARY…PDS TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED BY 21Z. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS SHOULD FORM ALONG DRYLINE BETWEEN
21-23Z WITH PRIMARY INITIAL THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
SEVERE WINDS. TORNADO RISK WILL INCREASE TOWARDS 00Z WITH AN
EXPECTATION OF A FEW SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES.
— Alan
Large multi-vortex tornado is on the gorund and moving east roughly along the I-40 corridor right towards Oklahoma City.
— Alan
edit: Tornado Emergency declared for Oklahoma County and OK City area. Reported chaser injuries on the highway (281 I believe); Weather Channel vehicle was “rolled”.
This is from The Weather Channel regarding their Tornado Hunt vehicles that Mike Bettis & crew travel around in for 4-6 weeks in the late spring:
TornadoHunt vehicle was thrown 200 yards by tornado W of OKC. Airbags deployed. All are safe
— Alan
Confused situation in Oklahoma as there is a daisy chain of tornadic situations plowing through OKC metro from west to east. Could be lots of tornadoes, one or two big ones, a bunch of small ones, lots of straight line winds… hard to get it really distinguished as everything is heavily wrapped in rain and massive hail cores.
This is the Weather Channel vehicle:
— Alan
Tornado-warned storms approaching St. Louis metro area; tornado reported on the ground northwest of St. Louis, heading to… Maryland Heights? I think.
— Alan
Edit: Dozens and dozens of power flashes seen from the air in the Norman-Moore area. No idea if they are tornadoes are not, as they are also getting 100 mph straightline gusts. Situation is crazy.
Do they get a prize for finding the tornado?
Well, they survived. People near them… not so lucky.
— Alan
Daily space weather here.
More like daily nutcases.
— Alan
It seems that a lot of chasers had uncomfortably close calls with the El Reno tornado. Unfortunately, reports are filtering out that storm chasers Tim Samaras, his son Paul, and Carl Young were among the 9 victims.
http://www.theweatherspace.com/2013/06/02/tim-samaras-his-son-and-carl-young-oklahoma-tornad/
