Lee is a partisan hack, that rant really surprises me. The briefing they were given must have been offensively bad.

Hmm, I wonder if members of the fake libertarian wing of the GOP, as represented here by Rand Paul and Mike Lee, have been catching flack from their core constituencies of rubes who still believe they have actual libertarian tendencies.

I’d love to see the house speedrun a new article of impeachment for violation of the war powers act to see if these guys will still take a stand or if they were just grandstanding. I’d suspect Lee might actually stand firm while Rand would just again show how corrupt and craven he is.

(Though in reality doing so probably isn’t a winning political move since it shifts focus and turns impeachment into a referendum about the strike where false patriotism can be readily exploited)

This is a guy in a solidly red state who won his seat with 62% in 2010, 68% in 2016, and won’t face reelection for another 2.5 years. His primary in 2016 was a walk in the park. Is this really about him worrying about his seat?

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Hmm, being the only gop senator to vote for impeachment (or let’s say one of a small handful even) would probably lead to the rnc running a high profile and well funded primary challenge against him. I’m not an expert in such things but I would have thought it wouldn’t be difficult for the rnc to dispose of him, especially with 90% of deplorables opposing impeachment.

The fact he is in a solidly red state makes him less likely to survive, I would have thought.

December, 2019:
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January, 2020:
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But he is from Utah, the least pro-Trump red state.

DJT Jr is basically fat Rambo. He can win any asymmetric war on his own.

This whole thing was a huge win for Trump. He did what every previous administration wanted to do, regarding Soleimani, and got away with it.
Saying they’re gonna retaliate with terrorist attacks is silly, the iranians and their allies were already willing to do those before. If you’re saying they’re gonna try to do more damage with them now, that’s silly too, since they’re already terrorist they’re not gonna chose targets with moderation: “Let’s blow US civillians up, but not too many, we don’t wanna go overboard here.”
As for igniting anti-US fervor among some iranians, that is the case, but let’s look at the quality of the people involved: they managed to kill 60 of themselves in a stampede during Soleimani’s funeral, in his hometown. Not many geniuses among that crowd.
Trump, the damn clown, somehow won this. He called Iran’s bluff and they folded. He’s gonna parade around this win in front of his voterbase and they’re gonna cheer about how “he did all he said he was gonna do” again.

It seems a bit early to claim that we’ve seen all the results of this assassination play out.

That’s true. But I think we’ve seen all that Iran is willing to do “in the open”. Now the covert ops start. Or rather, continue.

Good thing no one is saying that, then.

No. You’re conflating the means (assassinating Soleimani) with the ends. Previous administrations did not want to kill Soleimani for the sake of killing him - they wanted to kill him (or in Bush’s case, specifically did not want to kill him, despite having him literally in their crosshairs), because they - probably correctly - assessed that the act would not result in the desired effects. Rational state actors do not assassinate based on “revenge” or someone being a “bad hombre”.

Currently, we’re not even 100% sure why this administration thought assassinating Soleimani was a good idea, because none of their stated reasons actually stand up to scrutiny.

What is patently absurd is declaring this as a win for Trump within the first 72 hours. Especially given the antagonists involved and the complexities of the situation in the middle east.

I’ve given up trying to predict how it will go down among his base. But the next election really isn’t about the base it is about the 10% of so of the population, who isn’t automatically going to vote for Trump or the slightly large group of people who’d vote for a dog over Donald Trump. The undecided.

If we get kicked out if Iraq, reports of ISIS being resurgent, and Iran making big progress on getting a nuclear weapon, than it should backfire on Trump. It is much too early to tell any of that.

The central problem with American so-called policy is that it has no discernible purpose (well, unless you go with the idea that it is expressly designed to make money for global capitalists, which is possible, but rather broad). Instead, the USA lurches from reaction to reaction, with the occasional ill-conceived pro-active SNAFU thrown in for good measure.

Killing any particular individual is only useful to the extent that that death moves you towards your goals. If you don’t have any real goals, assassination can’t be useful, period. And even if you do have some, perhaps nebulous, goals like “reduce terrorism,” or something, killing someone will only advance those goals in very very specific circumstances, like when someone has such specific knowledge or charisma or capabilities that their absence will materially diminish the other side’s ability or will. And even then, that gets really iffy, because someone that important sometimes becomes more, not less, effective as a martyr.

Of course, there are other reasons for assassination of foreign targets–revenge, causing chaos, etc.–but while perhaps clear these reasons usually do not advance any particularly good goal, nor are they easy or practical to fit into any rational policy program.

So, assassinating Soleimani has to be seen in the context of the question, why? What does it gain us? And by why and what, I mean beyond some juvenile and vindictive sort of revengeful glee. From cold, hard, policy perspectives, what does it get us? There may be some gains, sure, but I do not think that any of them add up to a net positive in the context of actually effecting real change (that is, making progress towards real policy goals).

Because, we have no policy, and hence, no goals.

here in europe we don’t have a gun culture, so terrorist have to rely to things like drive a truck trough people

if you want to do a terrorist attack, theres nothing that can really stop it

you could ban pens, trucks, cars, … people will find something else to do a mass murder event for political gains

It’s a huge win forr Iran. They trade two guys for a giant step towards their long-term strategic goal of getting US troops out of Iraq, and shored up the popularity of their Shiite faction in Iraq.

This wasn’t some random guy. He was a 30+ year army general, war hero and mastermind of regional alliances. Sure, he can still serve as a martyr, and someone will replace him eventually but they won’t have the same prestige, experience, and will have the “hey, didn’t the American just bomb your predecessor to pieces, with no great difficulty” thing hanging over them.
Don’t underestimate the demoralizing effect that the possibility of a faceless, unmanned drone blowing you up with missiles, with no warning, no matter where you are (outside of a bunker, tho there’s bombs for that too) has, even on someone otherwise willing to die for their beliefs. There’s no fair fight, not even the possibility of one. It’s scary as fuck. Double effectiveness on someone like DPRK’s Kim, who, I suspect, enjoys being alive very much, and will not risk personal harm for something like “ideals” That guy is just a spoiled child, which explains why Trump kinda likes him, being childlike himself.

All this may well be true, but I question its relevance to the broad scope of what’s going on in the region. If the only goal we have is to mitigate the tactical effectiveness of Iran’s unconventional warfare, that’s pretty vague and hardly worth the effort unless it’s part of a much more meaningful long-term strategy. Which doesn’t exist.

I think this is a somewhat simplistic view of reality right now.

I mean, ignoring that Iran will absolutely continue to commit acts against the US, because I agree that on some level they would be doing that no matter what… I think that the bigger issue is likely going to come in the form of repercussions from Iraq. Their Parliament voted to expel our troops from their country. And the vote was unanimous.

That’s… a thing.