Lorini
2721
So KC opens the game with an onside kick which backfires, as did the Rams. Did any other road team do this? Why the hell would they think this is a good idea? (don’t even go there, the Superbowl is not in either of these teams near future) :)
There’s been a generally commendable trend away from the “safe” play in the last few years, driven in part by the mounting evidence for a lot of aggressiveness (particularly in fourth-down situations) but also by the success of the people who were early adopters on evidence-based approaches, like Belichick.
Because the success rate of surprise onside kicks is very high, especially when compared to the success rate of expected onside kicks, and the idea of getting an extra possession against the Indianapolis Colts is a good one.
I liked both of Todd Haley’s aggressive decisions yesterday. The surprise onside kick was great; potentially less so against Indy on account of them being victimized by it in against the Saints. The decision to go for it on 4th and 2 was also great; the play call, however, wasn’t. Without Jones OR Charles in the backfield, the Colts could ignore the backs and collapse on Bowe and Moeaki, which they did.
Someone in DC tell me! Is Trent Williams going to be all right?
Lorini
2726
I think there’s a risk/reward equation that should be considered. Risking giving up the ball so far back in your backfield doesn’t seem like a good idea. On the other hand I fully agreed with the 4th and 2 call; three points would have done little for them at that point in the game.
balut
2727
From what I hear, it’s over 9000.
Logically all of that makes sense, but I enjoyed the kick as the first play of the game just because it signals to their opponents that they are batshit insane and are capable of doing anything at any time. I wish more coaches would shake things up like that a bit more often but I can’t blame them for potentially risking their career doing so.
There is a risk/reward, and it’s on the side of the surprise onside kick. The Football Outsiders did a study on it in one of their annuals – I’ll hunt around for it, but since they’ve done six books and they’re all 500+ pages, I don’t know when I’ll find it. The numbers, looking at average score per drive based on field position, came out as a positive for the team taking the risk.
Yeah, I’m not against mixing in unexpected onside kicks either. And very much so for going for it on 4th and short given the right field position. Teams that punt from the opponents 40 annoy the shit out of me. Unless you’re a full defense only team, then maybe I can understand.
You need be at least somewhat unpredictable. Keep people guessing. The next five teams that play KC are going to be thinking about an onside kick, putting more hands guys in there and less blockers. Maybe they’ll get a run back out of it or something will break elsewhere…
Before or after powering up?
Suh was the one that tipped it – he popped it way up in the air, turned around, ran three or four yards, and caught it when it came back down. Was a fantastic play (for us Lions fans :)
Not in DC, but according to the WaPo, the MRI was negative. He’s just sore.
sluggo
2734
Yeah, Chris Berman said something about that earlier.
We’ll see how that goes. I’ve been really impressed with Brandon Tate, so far.
Aww, man, are we going to have another rain delay?
jeffd
2737
Holy shit look at that rain!
…and Brett sets a new record!
Say what you will about Favre, but that second TD of his was simply ridiculous.
ckessel
2740
WTF is wrong with coaches and the 2 pt? Childress goes for it at the start of the 4th. Best case, he’s tied. He misses, now a TD by the Jets put them down by 9 instead of 8. Kick the damn PAT with 15 minutes left so that a score, of any kind by the Jets, leaves you within range.
Edit: Confirmed, Childress is a moron down by 2 scores with 4:30 to go.
