3501

Okay, so you’re using this to say the dude sucks, but: 11th in the league is actually REALLY GOOD. It means there are at least 21 teams out there with starters who are worse than him, and puts him solidly in the “above average” camp.

My impression has been that the guy isn’t a great QB, but if the best stats available show he’s the 11th best guy in the world at his position, well.

3502

OK, enough about Vince Young. The byes are over, everyone has played 10 games, Thanksgiving is here and we’re into the home stretch. How is the NFL playoff picture shaping up? Here’s how I see it:

AFC

Jets, Pats, Ravens, Steelers: barring an epic collapse, two of these teams will win their divisions, the other two will get the two wildcards. And they will cause a LOT of trouble for the other two division winners in the first round. I give the Pats a small edge over the Jets, and think the Steelers schedule is a little more favorable than the Ravens.

South: It’s between the Jags and Colts now. At 4-6, the Texans won’t catch up, and the 5-5 Titans are headed backwards. The Jags have done a commendable job this year, but I’d expect the Colts to finish on top.

West: the Chiefs pulled back into first yesterday, and the Raiders are still in it, but I think the Chargers are by far the most talented team in the division – they just don’t show up every week. I think they’ll overtake the Chiefs.

Playoff Predictions:
Byes: Pats (1), Steelers (2)
Ravens (6) @ Colts (3)
Jets (5) @ Chargers (4)

Tiebreakers of note: The Pats have already beaten Baltimore, San Diego, Pittsburgh and Indy, which gives them a huge leg up in the pursuit of the 1 seed. The Jets have beaten the Pats once but lost to Baltimore.

Key Games:
11/28 - San Diego @ Indy (sunday night)
12/5 - Pittsburgh @ Baltimore (sunday night)
12/6 - NY Jets @ New England (monday night)
12/12 - Kansas City @ San Diego
12/19 - NY Jets @ Pittsburgh
1/2 - Oakland @ Kansas City

NFC

East: Philly still has to play the Giants again, but they have a favorable schedule and I think they’ll win the division with 11 wins.

North: The Bears and Packers meet on the last day of the season, and I think that’ll decide the division. I pick the Pack.

South: Who would have figured this would be the NFL’s most competitive division? The Bucs(?!) are 7-3 and are in 3rd place? I’d like to give Atlanta a small edge for the division, but if they slip up somewhere, the Saints could jump right in and take it away.

Worst: It’s a shame one of these teams will actually make the playoffs with so many better teams in the other divisions. The 3-7 49ers could actually win the West. The Rams and Seahwaks play on the last day of the season, and for some reason, I’m picking the Rams as the sacrificial lamb that will escape the division.

Wild Cards: this leaves the Giants, Bears, Saints and Bucs as four teams for two slots. I think the Bucs are overdue for a falloff, and I don’t really believe in the Bears, so I think the Giants and Saints get the slots.

Playoff Predictions:
Byes: Falcons (1), Packers (2)
Giants (6) @ Eagles (3)
Saints (5) @ Rams (4)

Tiebreakers of note: Green Bay has beaten Philly; the Giants beat Chicago; Philly beat Atlanta. These could all be potentially huge down the road and even keep someone out of the playoffs.

Key Games:
11/28 - Green Bay @ Atlanta
11/28 - Philly @ Chicago
12/5 - Atlanta @ Tampa Bay
12/26 - NY Giants @ Green Bay
12/27 - New Orleans @ Atlanta (sunday night)
1/2 - Tampa Bay @ New Orleans
1/2 - Chicago @ Green Bay
1/2 - St Louis @ Seattle

3503

The NFC West could be decided in the next two weeks. Both San Francisco (on the road to Arizona and on the road against Green Bay) and Arizona (home against San Francisco and home against St. Louis) are on the verge of being done, which means that at least for the moment only Seattle and St. Louis are still in the hunt. And while Seattle gets the Chiefs and then the Panthers at home, the Rams have to go to Denver and then Arizona. The Rams haven’t won a road game yet while Seattle has just one home loss.

3504

The NFC West needs to be barred from the playoffs for a third wild card slot. Fucking ridiculous that a 7-3 team at this point could still not make the playoffs but a 3-7 team still has a chance.

The Colts and Jags fighting for the AFC South is going to be interesting.

3505

At least one 8-8 or 9-7 team makes the playoffs every year. Sometimes they are division winners, sometimes they aren’t. Just the way the NFL works.

3506

Someone might need to double check the math on this, but because the Rams already beat the Seahawks earlier in the year, I think it’ll be hard for Seattle to clinch the division early. As long as the Rams match Seattle’s record for the next five weeks, the week 17 matchup becomes a winner-takes-the-division showdown.

3507

Correct, sluggo, as of right now, the Rams control their own destiny:

3508

If I remember correctly, the Niners had a decent QB in Garcia when they drafted Smith. That was what I never understood – Garcia was a better than average NFL QB from what I saw of him. And he was decent for a few years after the Niners let him go. They didn’t have a big problem at QB.

I think the Niners were just unlucky – that was a weak draft year when they had the #1 overall pick. No one wanted to trade up and they had no idea what to do with the pick, and of course they were going to be on the hook for a big contract regardless.

I doubt this Troy Smith is the answer, either, but I guess we get to see him for the rest of the season.

3509

I haven’t seen a lot of evidence about Fisher. VY manages to demonstrate periodically that he’s a problem child.

Every NFL coach has to be a bit of a dick at times. Fisher didn’t let Young go back in because he suffered a throwing injury to his hand. I don’t think that’s being a dick. And yeah, he eventually threw Young under the bus, but not until Young walked out on the team meeting.

My guess is that Young has never really gained Fisher’s trust because Young has never really mastered the position at the NFL level. Yeah, he can play at a high level at times, but it must be frustrating to the coaches if they feel they have to feed him a reduced offense after all this time. That doesn’t generate trust.

3510

The top 10 in 2005:

[ol]
[li]Alex Smith[/li][li]Ronnie Brown[/li][li]Braylon Edwards[/li][li]Cedric Benson[/li][li]Cadillac Williams[/li][li]Adam “Pacman” Jones[/li][li]Troy Williamson[/li][li]Antrel Rolle[/li][li]Carlos Rogers[/li][li]Mike Williams (WR edition to Detroit)[/li][/ol]
The best three picks in the draft were Demarcus Ware, 11th overall to Dallas, Aaron Rodgers, 24th to Green Bay, and Roddy White, 27th to Atlanta, and the last two didn’t hit their stride for a few season thanks to questionable quarterbacks (the ageless Favre and Vick, Horrific Passer Edition).

Man, what an awful top 10, and a fairly bad first round period.

3511

As a Ravens fan, you could do worse than Troy Smith. I don’t know how much his growth was stunted by being dicked around in Baltimore these last few years, though. But he’s always been competent if not great.

3512

Yeah, it was a bad first round. I don’t blame the Niners for picking Smith. There wasn’t any other option.

3513

Man, are you right about that. This inspired me to go look at who the Ravens drafted that year…not so good for a normally solid front office.

3514

Special sympathy goes out to the St. Louis Rams, who got The Human Hold Alex Barron AND Richie Incognito, who is to date the only player I know of whose signing so enraged his new teammates last year in Buffalo that they were mocking him openly on Twitter.

Incognito is an awesome last name, though.

3515

I officially petition to have him renamed Guy. Guy Incognito.

3516

It’s an oxymoronic last name given how Incognito’s the first player the refs are looking at.

Is Barron still starting for the Cowboys? We dumped our trash for theirs. We cut Barbie Carpenter and I think he’s bounced to two different teams since then.

3517

Incognito couldn’t keep it together enough to stay on the team at Nebraska under the same coaching staff that let Lawrence Phillips play all four years. It just hurts my head that he’s still playing pro ball.

3518

I haven’t heard his name being called; he might just be a sub right now, though officially his stats list that he’s played in 7 games this season.

— Alan

3519

Barron hasn’t been starting much for the Cowboys, but he’s seeing playing time. As I said in week one–Alex Barron is not a starting tackle for a playoff-caliber football team.

Oh, and yeah, I cannot understand why Fisher didn’t put VY back into that game. Guy only had a torn flexor tendon on the thumb of his throwing hand, and thumb injuries on QB throwing hands never cause them problems. Just ask Brett Favre and Kurt Warner.

3520

A weird Lawrence Phillips thing I didn’t know until Al Michaels mentioned it on SNF a week or so ago: Phillips was the guy who blew his blocking assignment on a corner blitz on the play that ended Steve Young’s career.

What a terrible human being that guy was (Phillips, obviously).