3661

It’d help if Philly used their actual RB’s more, to save some wear-and-tear on Vick. Last I’d looked, in the third quarter, Vick had more running yards AND rushes than their main RB, and basically had the ball 80%+ of the time.

(Versus Houston’s balanced 50/50 run/pass at the same point in the game; not sure if they went pass-wacky late in the 4th quarter to try to come back.)

3662

I seem to recall the words “run the ball” coming from my mouth several times during the third quarter, perhaps with an exlamation point or two. They did eventually in the fourth quarter, with good results.

3663

re Vick being stopped: I looked up Vick’s record against top 10 teams by defensive DVOA (here). Complicating this is that Vick hasn’t played the full season due to injuries.

Of the top 10 defenses in the NFL, the Eagles have played against:

  • Giants (#3, Vick won this game)
  • Green Bay (#4, iirc Vick played part of this game and lost)
  • Tennessee (#5, Vick didn’t play this game)
  • Chicago (#7, Vick played and lost)
  • San Fransisco (#10, Vick didn’t play this game)

So in terms of Vick’s performance against the top defenses in the league we have a sample size of 2.5 games (Giants, Chicago, and say half the GB game). In those 2.5 games his record is 1-1.5.

Now looking at all of Vick’s wins (someone check me if I’m wrong on this). He’s won games against:

  • Detroit (21 ranked Defensive DVOA)
  • Jacksonville (29 ranked Defensive DVOA)
  • Indianapolis (15 ranked Defensive DVOA)
  • Washington (24 ranked Defensive DVOA)
  • Giants (#3 ranked Defensive DVOA)
  • Houston (#31 ranked Defensive DVOA)

What I’m seeing here is that Vick has kicked the crap out of some cupcake defenses. This has got to maybe be the easiest set of defenses that any quarterback has faced in the league, with the exception of the Giants. He’s a good quarterback, and the Eagles are a very good team this year (relatively speaking). He might even be the best in the NFC. But he’s far from unstoppabble - there are probably at least three or four AFC quarterbacks who are better, and maybe even one or two in the NFC.

3664

You can’t judge a quarterback’s effectiveness based on his wins and losses. Half of that statistic is based on the job that the defense does, which is completely unrelated to the QB’s performance. Take the Chicago loss for example - Vick’s offense scored 26 points and the defense let up 31. In the Green Bay loss, the defense gave up 20 something points in the first half and then Vick came in and score 17 points in the second half. Wins/losses just isn’t really indicative of anything.

Your point is fair that he has beaten up on some easy teams, but you’re also downplaying his games against good teams.

3665

Michael Vick is playing at a very high level. It’s pretty incredible to see where he came from, and the level that he’s playing at now. That being said, he’s also been lucky, as he’s made a lot of bad decisions with the ball that haven’t ended up as INTs, according to KC Joyner of ESPN (written before the Bears game).

The world of pro football has a similar situation with its current Superman, Michael Vick. A cursory look at his statistics this year show a player possessed of once-in-a-lifetime ability, but after taking a closer look at the game tapes and metrics, it is evident Vick could be on the road to suffering a type of defeat similar to Kent’s.

Exhibit No. 1 in this arena is the tremendous volume of bad decisions Vick has made this season. For those unfamiliar with this metric, a bad decision is defined as when a quarterback makes a mistake with the ball that leads to a turnover or a near turnover (e.g. a dropped interception, a fumble that is recovered by the offense, etc.). Common instances of this include forcing passes into coverage, staring at receivers or not seeing zone defenders in a passing lane.

It is a subjective metric, but it is also one that throughout the years has done a very good job of identifying which quarterbacks are taking too many risks, and Vick certainly fits that bill.

The game-video analysis shows him as having made 12 bad decisions in 202 dropbacks. (The dropbacks in this case include plays that were nullified by penalties but do not include spiked passes or sacks.) That equates to a 5.9 percent bad-decision rate. That means one out of every 17 passes Vick has thrown this season have been unnecessarily risk-laden.
To put that total into perspective, consider that Chicago Bears fans were almost ready to run Jay Cutler out of town last season in large part because of his risk-taking, and he posted a bad-decision rate of 3.4 percent. Vick’s current rate is nearly 75 percent higher.

So why aren’t Philadelphia fans turning on Vick? It is quite simply because he has had phenomenal luck when it comes to passes that could be intercepted. By my count, 15 of his passes landed in the near-interception category (a near interception being defined as a pass that reached a defender’s catching frame but was not picked off).

The typical conversion rate of potential interceptions is around 45 percent. If that were the case for Vick, eight of his passes would have been turnovers this season.

3666

I think you’re swinging a bit too far in the other direction. Win/Loss isn’t everything, but it’s also not nothing. I’m also not disparaging Vick - he’s having a very good season, and given the circumstances (missed two seasons because he was in jail, previous career was nothing to write home about) his performance is pretty much unprecedented.

The point about his interception rate is also a good one. Mark Sanchez went a ton of games this season without throwing a pick before regressing to the mean, I’d expect Vick to do the same.

3667

yeah, lots of guys have had fluky pick rates regress; Jason Campbell and David Garrard also come to mind.

3668

So why aren’t Philadelphia fans turning on Vick? It is quite simply because he has had phenomenal luck when it comes to passes that could be intercepted. By my count, 15 of his passes landed in the near-interception category (a near interception being defined as a pass that reached a defender’s catching frame but was not picked off).

The typical conversion rate of potential interceptions is around 45 percent. If that were the case for Vick, eight of his passes would have been turnovers this season.
I think Carson Palmer is throwing 8 potential interceptions per game this year…(only a slight exaggeration).

3669

Exhibit No. 1 in this arena is the tremendous volume of bad decisions Vick has made this season.

Normally bad decisions by a QB are reflected in interception numbers. P. Manning made more interceptions in at least two single games than Vick has made all year!! That’s a ludicrous conclusion.

I think Chicago showed that a creative defense can get to Vick. While he did score 26 points, those points were hard earned. They threw everything but the kitchen sink at him, and since Vick hasn’t had a lot of positive pocket experience, his reaction to those defenses wasn’t good. You put Brady or Rivers in the situations Vick saw at Chicago and they do a better job.

Brady is ahead of Vick in QB rating by .1 and Rivers is behind him by 2 points. The good news for the Eagles is that both of those QB’s are in the AFC.

3670

You can’t judge a quarterback’s effectiveness based on his wins and losses.

This is what every Payton Manning fan says.<ZING!>

3671

One thing that is interesting about this season is that right now we have 17 QB’s with QB rating’s over 90. Last season finished with 12. 2008 had 9. That latter figure is typical for the mid part of the decade.

So has that number doubled because we have a bunch more good QBs or is it because of changes in how offenses are designed? Or something else? Either way, I think it means that QB rating isn’t quite as valuable a tool.

3672

Isn’t the standard passer efficiency rating system tied to a static formula? i.e. If interception rates fall in half (for example) across the league, then average passer efficiency ratings would improve significantly, correct?

If so, then higher passer efficiency rating may relate to better protection (by rule changes, perhaps) for quarterbacks, giving them more time and less pressure to complete passes and avoid interceptions.

3673

It’s primarily because of the change in offensive play-calling and the way offenses are designed, like you said. I mean, right now Philip Rivers has the highest passer rating in a career, ever. Philip Rivers is a good quarterback. Is he the greatest quarterback ever? Of course not.

3674

You ask me, Phillip Rivers is better than just good.

3675

And Rivers is good in ways that stats don’t measure directly. One of the biggest problems for P. Manning this year is that he has lost the ability to improvise, something Rivers does really well. It appear to me that if things aren’t just like they were in practice, Peyton throws an interception while Rivers will get a TD out of chaos.

Being a Charger hater, it hurts to have to admire Rivers but hey, dude is great this year.

3676

QB Rating is a flawed stat. For starters it doesn’t even come close to accounting for the quality of defense a QB faces…

Here’s Football Outsider’s QB rankings:

By DYAR (which, as I understand it, ranks based on a QB’s total value over a season) Vick ranks 13, with a DYAR of 651. This is comparable to Eli Manning at #12 (also a DYAR of 651, not sure why they rank him higher) and Ben Roethlisberger at #14 (DYAR 645). However I think he gets hurt here because he missed a few games. Vick’s DYAR is below his YAR, which means (I think) that he may be underperforming relative to the defenses he’s played. BaconTastesGood can explain this better; I don’t quite have a grasp on the YAR-DYAR relationship yet.

DVOA measures his value on a per-play basis, and he’s ranked #6 in the league here, with a DVOA of 28.9% which is best in the NFC. The five guys above him in DVOA are Brady, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, and Kyle Orton (?!?).

3677

I thought the various rules changes have also made this a lot friendlier to offenses, particularly with roughing the passer calls that are making defensive linemen back off and pass interference calls over really minor shit.

3678

Did I say Rivers was just good? I – dammit, I did. I didn’t mean to! Rivers is a great quarterback. I don’t like the guy because he comes off as a histrionic crybaby and also I am a Chiefs fan, but Rivers is a damn great quarterback. He doesn’t get mentioned with Brady and Manning like he should. What he has done this year is incredible.

3679

The QB rating formula is overly complex, and flawed. I would be interested in the history of that rating, I should google it! I recall reading that Vince Young was at or near the top earlier in the season, so clearly its flawed. As a Longhorn, I loved him but come on.

Vick, pre-jail, was one of the most overrated players in the history of the NFL, IMO. I didnt think he was good, athletic, yeah, hell yeah. But a QB you could build a championship team around? Fuck no. He is just flat out better now. I dont think its just luck, but who knows. I guess time will tell. Favre had a great season last year, his best ever probably, and then was the worst QB in the league this year.

As for Manning, I dont think its him thats slipping. I think they cant run for shit and he has a lot crappier targets to throw to than in the past. Brady and Manning are the cream of the crop still, IMO, though Rodgers and Rivers are right up there, and Vick too.

edit: Google to the rescue http://www.bluedonut.com/qbrating.htm

3680

He shouldn’t be mentioned with Manning and Brady. Body of work and all that. Don’t get carried away.