The NFL 2010 thread

[Major_Malphunktion]

When he was very good he still had a decent line, either Faulk or Jackson in the backfield, and a younger Torry Holt and Ike Bruce to throw to.

One thing about Mike Martz’s Greatest Show offense: it requires receivers to run long patterns downfield; even a merely “good” offensive line might not be good enough to run that modified Coryell offense. So…even in Bulger’s last season or two with Martz he was getting hit a lot…and Rams fans noticed Bulger seemed to be losing his touch on the deep ball. He just kept under throwing open receivers. Then the line really went south and Bulger got pounded for three years in a row–just a frightening number of hits. He had concussions, shoulder injuries, you name it. His accuracy has plummeted, and there’s reason to think that there are some basic throws that he can no longer make.

So: I think he was as good as he was when he had talented folks around him in abundance…and the combination of losing those key pieces and getting bludgeoned half to death both took a toll on him.

We saw the exact same thing happen to Warner. It took him 3 years post St.L to be great again.

[triggercut]

We saw the exact same thing happen to Warner. It took him 3 years post St.L to be great again.

To be fair, Warner’s main problem for those down years was a really bad thumb; he could barely hold the ball his last few games with the Rams. The down time on the Giants bench and then initially with Arizona let that injured digit recover…and then he went back to being awesome again.

I also think there’s something to the coaching angle with Bulger. Of the three QB’s that Mike Martz took from being journeymen to being real good, you could sort of see how two ended up being successful. Trent Green and Kurt Warner both had measurable skills and smarts and quick releases and were football smart. Both of those guys were rah-rah vocal leaders with a strong field presence.

Bulger was the enigma, and might be Martz’s crowning achievement as a coach. Never had a real strong arm, never real accurate, never really known for making fast decisions on the field. He did have a fairly quick release early on and that helped…but Bulger was always a real quiet and reserved guy. It just seemed like when Martz left Bulger who was already starting to drig just got lost and never really got it back.

I think the situation he’s in in Baltimore is a good one. He can be a backup on a squad with a lot of offensive weapons and a solid QB-friendly coach in Harbaugh where if he’s called on to play maybe he’ll do all right.

[Matt_Bowyer]

Because a shellshocked guy with a slow release and no mobility or receivers to throw to last season and without Jason Brown was only sacked twice per game?

The Rams having a bad O-line is a myth. They protected lousy quarterbacks with no receivers getting open incredibly well last year. Every defense in the league knew the only weapon the Rams possessed was SJ39, and he still ran wild. Some of that is Steven Jackson being a stud, but some of that is also a very underrated offensive line that got better with Roger Saffold being the team’s #2.

The best part about the Rams 1-15 season last year was that for a few years people had thought Marc Bulger’s struggles and terrible offense were due to a leaky line. Last year the Rams discovered that a big part of the problem was just that Bulger had regressed and become a lousy quarterback.

In looking at the Football Outsiders numbers, their line was very poor. Their Adjusted Line Yards ranked 28th in the league. They only succeeded 56% (30th) of the time in Power situations, defined as when the offense needs one or two yards on third or fourth down. They were stuffed (no gain or worse) on 22% of plays, 28th in the league. The quarterbacks were sacked on 7.7% of all dropbacks, 24th in the league. Tackle Alex Barron was the NFL’s most-penalized player last year with 14 penalties. St. Louis was bad on the line, and they have been this bad for the last three years.

They ranked fourth in 2nd-level yards, which means that they got most of their yards from Steven Jackson breaking runs, not evenly grinding it out to keep drives alive.

It’s not a myth. They have a bad line. The good news is that with Barron and Richie Incognito gone, they’ll at least be better disciplined up front.

[triggercut]

Alex Barron is a Dallas Cowboy. 2nd rd pick Roger Saffold takes his place and can’t help but be better.

Richie Incognito was a liability on the line last year.

And yet they were a decent line for a while last year. The stats are skewed by the team losing both their Jasons to injury by week 11 of the season. Until then, both Jason Brown and Jason Smith were doing pretty impressive work holding the line together. Both will be healthy this season, they get Saffold, they lose a moron like Incognito which will be addition by subtraction.

They aren’t a good offensive line…but they aren’t bad either. If the Jasons stay healthy and Saffold is as good as he’s looked so far, they’ll be ok. Not good, not great…but ok.

[triggercut]

In looking at the Football Outsiders numbers, their line was very poor. Their Adjusted Line Yards ranked 28th in the league. They only succeeded 56% (30th) of the time in Power situations, defined as when the offense needs one or two yards on third or fourth down. They were stuffed (no gain or worse) on 22% of plays, 28th in the league. The quarterbacks were sacked on 7.7% of all dropbacks, 24th in the league. Tackle Alex Barron was the NFL’s most-penalized player last year with 14 penalties. St. Louis was bad on the line, and they have been this bad for the last three years.

They ranked fourth in 2nd-level yards, which means that they got most of their yards from Steven Jackson breaking runs, not evenly grinding it out to keep drives alive.

It’s not a myth. They have a bad line. The good news is that with Barron and Richie Incognito gone, they’ll at least be better disciplined up front.

One other thing to add: when Kyle Boller and Keith Null are the quarterbacks you’re facing, and when those two guys have a receiver corps that features Donnie Avery and Danny Amendola, if you’re the DC of the opposing team you’re pretty safely putting 8 or 9 guys in the box pretty much every play. That they weren’t dead last in the league in every single offensive category with what might have been the worst passing game the NFL has seen in years is some kind of miracle.

[Eightball]

One other thing to add: when Kyle Boller and Keith Null are the quarterbacks you’re facing, and when those two guys have a receiver corps that features Donnie Avery and Danny Amendola, if you’re the DC of the opposing team you’re pretty safely putting 8 or 9 guys in the box pretty much every play.

It won’t be any different this year with a rookie QB and the same wide receivers, trig.

[triggercut]

It won’t be any different this year with a rookie QB and the same wide receivers, trig.

I agree, but at least there’s some hope that Bradford’s mobility, arm, and accuracy will keep him from taking the kind of brutal beating that a fellow like David Carr endured early on as a Texan, or like Tim Couch took as a Brown.

I don’t think the Rams are much better than 3-13 this year; I do think there will be glimmers of hope on offense. I’m going to say that the folks who are excited about Bradford on the coaching staff didn’t see Kyle Boller and Keith Null do the kinds of things and make the kinds of throws they’ve seen Bradford make so far. Simply put: those two qb’s are helpless; even with the same receivers (although getting Laurent Robinson back will help immensely, and there’s hope that Mardy Gilyard will be the #2 by season’s end), Bradford will be an improvement.

[Eightball]

I agree, but at least there’s some hope that Bradford’s mobility, arm, and accuracy will keep him from taking the kind of brutal beating that a fellow like David Carr endured early on as a Texan, or like Tim Couch took as a Brown.

I don’t think the Rams are much better than 3-13 this year; I do think there will be glimmers of hope on offense. I’m going to say that the folks who are excited about Bradford on the coaching staff didn’t see Kyle Boller and Keith Null do the kinds of things and make the kinds of throws they’ve seen Bradford make so far. Simply put: those two qb’s are helpless; even with the same receivers (although getting Laurent Robinson back will help immensely, and there’s hope that Mardy Gilyard will be the #2 by season’s end), Bradford will be an improvement.

You or I would be an improvement over Kyle Boller or Keith Null :)

I still remember how they drafted Boller in Baltimore, largely it appeared because he could throw a football 70 yards while kneeling on the ground. Which is a skill you often need in football, I’ve heard.

I have a lot of respect for Bradford, and I think he’ll be an excellent QB. He’s got the 2 things you need imho; intelligence and accuracy (arm strength, as long as you’re not Chad Pennington wimpy, is overrated overall). However, that shoulder makes me really nervous for him…

[BaconTastesGood]

I agree, but at least there’s some hope that Bradford’s mobility, arm, and accuracy will keep him from taking the kind of brutal beating that a fellow like David Carr endured early on as a Texan, or like Tim Couch took as a Brown.

arm and accuracy don’t prevent you from taking a beating. A good offensive line and, more importantly, ability to read the field are the primary factors (along with play action and a running game that the defense actually takes seriously).

I’d hazard that time-to-release is the single greatest factor determining how often a QB gets sacked.

[Sarkus]

arm and accuracy don’t prevent you from taking a beating. A good offensive line and, more importantly, ability to read the field are the primary factors (along with play action and a running game that the defense actually takes seriously).

I’d hazard that time-to-release is the single greatest factor determining how often a QB gets sacked.

I agree, though the margins of error are so low its almost impossible to really measure. A slightly worse offensive line can have a big impact on how a QB looks. Younger QBs obviously struggle at first to make decisions and throw in the time they have. And once an OL drops off in performance too much, even a good/great QB can start to look bad. Favre’s bad years in GB were probably as much due to a bad line as they were to whatever decline in skills he’s had. Warner rebounded in Arizona at least in part because the line was good enough; he probably wouldn’t have had that success had he gone somewhere else.

[Shadarr]

I hope we get to see Null again. So many geeky jokes to yell at the TV. Attempt to pass Null failed!

[BennyProfane]

I think it would be a huge mistake for the Rams to start Bradford this year. Give him some time maturing, learning the system, and staying healthy until you have the protection for him that will make him the superstar you want. Put him out there now, and and he may never play a second year.

[Robert_Sharp]

Maybe, but it will be hard to keep him off the field, too. He’s a great player, and losing a couple of games, or just having awful QB play, will put a lot of pressure on the coaches to go ahead and start him. Even teams with QBs that were very raw and should have sat, still pushed them out too soon (the Titans with Young, for example).

[triggercut]

At some point the Rams will have to put a little faith in that very expensive o-line (I keep forgetting about Jacob Bell at guard) and put Bradford out there. You send a pretty shitty message to a guy like Jackson who desperately needs some help if you don’t.

[Robert_Sharp]

Jacob Bell was mediocre at best with TN. Is he better with the Rams? I was stunned that they paid him so much.

[AndrewMyers]

ESPN is reporting that Suh’s agents are asking for $90mil over six years, $56m guaranteed.

[Mark_Asher]

I think it would be a huge mistake for the Rams to start Bradford this year. Give him some time maturing, learning the system, and staying healthy until you have the protection for him that will make him the superstar you want. Put him out there now, and and he may never play a second year.

He needs to learn and you learn more by playing than by sitting. There are ways to protect the QB that the Rams can employ if they feel their OL can’t do it – quick routes, keeping a TE and/or RB in to block, etc.

And seriously – you think if he starts his rookie year his chances of having a career-ending injury are really that great? And if he starts his second year instead the chances are dramatically diminished?

Whether he starts in game one, he really does need to get some starts under his belt this year at some point.

[triggercut]

Jacob Bell was mediocre at best with TN. Is he better with the Rams? I was stunned that they paid him so much.

I’m not sure that if you put Tom Chick in pads and gave him one of those old school single bar face mask helmets that he’d have been any worse at guard than Bell did for the first half of the season. But then for whatever reason he started to get better week after week, and was playing very well at the end of the season.

I suppose then that it’s a matter of which guy shows up this season to play.

[Cubit]

ESPN is reporting that Suh’s agents are asking for $90mil over six years, $56m guaranteed.

Really? Mort and Schefter on twitter are saying that Suh will not ask for more than Bradford.

Eugene Parker, Suh’s agent, just told me now that Bradford’s deal is in, “you see the market…(Suh’s deal) will be less than Bradford’s.”

[BennyProfane]

He needs to learn and you learn more by playing than by sitting. There are ways to protect the QB that the Rams can employ if they feel their OL can’t do it – quick routes, keeping a TE and/or RB in to block, etc.

And seriously – you think if he starts his rookie year his chances of having a career-ending injury are really that great? And if he starts his second year instead the chances are dramatically diminished?

Whether he starts in game one, he really does need to get some starts under his belt this year at some point.

I’m saying that even the best QB is only one piece of a complex offensive puzzle, and if you don’t have the other pieces, it gives the opposing defense free reign to tee off on the QB every play. All the quick sets or draw plays or hand offs in the world aren’t going to stop a good defense from handing him his head repeatedly if the other tools aren’t sufficient to threaten them.

You hold him out for a year (and frankly I’d do this with ANY brand new QB out of college, I’m not just talking about Bradford) so he can learn the system, see how much faster things move in the pros, get him some reps late in games or when things look pretty safe, and give him a chance to become a real pro, rather than throwing him to the sharks right away. He’s a massive investment for a long period of time, why risk it early if the rest of the pieces aren’t in place anyway? Its not like the Rams are going to the playoffs with him this year anyway. Build around him. Take the time and do it right.