It’s so much of a team game it’s really hard to tell when you only look at stats. The same QB behind a good O line is going to have his stats sag if he plays behind a bad O line. Great receivers will add yards after the catch, inflating a QB’s stats. Mediocre ones won’t. A Hail Mary at the end of the half or game that gets intercepted unfairly lowers stats.
You really just have to watch them play to get a feel for the impact they have on the game.
Just going by what you quoted Alex Smith and Ryan Fitzpatrick are better QBs than Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan. Do you really believe that?
Sarkus
3402
Smith isn’t that good, no, but I’m not sure about Fitzpatrick at this point. And while I think Rivers is pretty good, neither Matt Ryan (or Joe Flacco for that matter) seem to be making the jump everyone expected. And while Atlanta has given up a lot of sacks, Baltimore has not and both those teams seem to have good receivers.
Thongsy
3403
I don’t how Fitzpatrick is doing but Alex Smith is not a top QB. I think it one of the guys on Fox or NFL network mentioning how Niner fans were now saying Alex Smith is an elite QB and that just isn’t true. I don’t know what message board or blog the guy is reading but most Niner fans know he’s nothing more than average even with the current success he is currently having.
He’s playing it smart and safe, throwing short passes and a lot of checkdowns. I don’t even think he has thrown a pass this season for 20 yards or more. His numbers are probably more reflective of the coaching staff than his own abilities, them calling plays for short passes has allowed him to have a high completion percentage while throwing only two interceptions. During the Lions game he tried to throw two relatively medium-long passes and in true Alex Smith fashion, they were poorly thrown and one got intercepted. It’s nice to see him near the top of the chart but he really doesn’t belong there.
Most speculation on the Lloyd trade includes a contract extension as part of the deal.
Check out FO’s DYAR and DVOA. They’ll give you numbers that match up better to intuition. But Romo and Manning are still going to be high, because they’re good QBs. Infuriatingly inconsistent at times, but still good. I mean, Manning has the longest active start streak in the league for a QB; you don’t get to that position unless you’re playing at a noticeably above average level.
As for the up-and-comers, that’s pretty standard: You’ll see people with a few good games, or even a good season, and then they regress big-time the next year. Sometimes they bounce out of it and become awesome, usually they don’t. Pretty much anyone can rattle off a pile of “up and coming” young guys who never panned out despite early promise.
Yeah, for good insight in reading the stats of the NFL, you can’t do better than FO. And even they argue with their own stats – a couple of years ago Adrian Peterson graded out as the 21st-best back in the league, which they said was wrong in their player comment: “There are not 20 running backs in the league better than Adrian Peterson. The VIkings just don’t have any other players, so everything goes through Peterson. As the receivers mature and the quarterback play stabilizes, Peterson’s rankings here will go up when he’s not running draws on 3rd-and-20 and catching dumpoffs for no gain when Tarvaris Jackson panics at the sight of an incoming pass rusher.”
Cubit
3408
Raiders are getting Carson Palmer from the Bengals for a 1st rounder in 2012. That means they won’t have a 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, or 7th rounder next year. I guess the idiocy didn’t die with Al Davis.
Ouch, it is even worse:
Carson Palmer to the Raiders now official. Compensation expected to be a 1 in 2012 and a conditional 1 in 2013.
DT1
3409
I’m reading that it’s two 1st round picks (in 2012 and 2013). It’s an incredibly high price but as was mentioned previously in the thread, he’s only 31. He’s also not JaMarcus Russell.
Sucks for Jason Campbell. He’ll be looking for a new job next season once again.
Two first-round draft picks for a 31-year-old quarterback with an arm injury that never healed well, one that severely limited his arm strength after 2008? I’m not saying Carson Palmer isn’t a good quarterback, because he is. He’s just not the player he once was, and he’s certainly not worth two first-round draft picks as the player he is now.
DT1
3412
Agreed. But the Raiders were just gonna blow those picks on fast receivers who can only run in a straight line anyway.
I swear that Al Davis is still running that organization from his phylactary. That’s a Herschel Walker-esque trade.
jeffd
3414
Grist for the mill!
FO has Alex Smith as the second worst QB this week, behind only Rex Grossman. Short passes (3.9 yards per completion) kills him pretty badly.
My first thought:
“Are you fucking kidding me? Who is their right mind would trade two valuable 1st round picks for a 31 year old QB who hasn’t posted a QB rating above 84 since 2007 and who has never won a playoff game? That can’t be right. There’s no fucking way.”
My second thought:
“Oh, it’s the Raiders. That’s plausible.”
Lorini
3416
Oh well. I wanted Palmer but not for that price. We’ll have to see, although I can’t imagine that the Raiders were the team he wanted to play for. Seems short sighted, but like I said, I don’t know the quality of the upcoming draft, particularly for defensive picks which is where they need the most help. I’m sure the Raiders aren’t planning on being in the Luck race anyway.
Yes, and it is unfortunate for Jason Campbell. He has to go to yet another team and learn yet another offense. I liked the guy as our QB, I thought he was working well with the wide receivers we had. He wasn’t going to take us to the SB, but the poor defense was as much to blame if not more for that.
I know this much, he damn well better get us into the playoffs otherwise I’m going to be really really annoyed :)
Is there anyone who says “The Raiders are the team I’ve always wanted to play for”? Outside of parole violators and chain gangs?
Lorini
3418
I know you hate them, but they have produced players who would not want to play for any other team. And they were there in full force Sunday for the half time tribute to Al Davis. The Raiders are trying to change this perception that only gang bangers and thugs are Raider fans or attend Raider games because it’s not true. Yes, the Black Hole is there. But they are a small part of the crowd. The Raider defensive players have not been fined in the last two years if not longer for illegal hits, unlike a certain team in Pittsburgh or other teams where these types of fines seem to be routine.
I’m sure you didn’t bother to read the player tributes to Al, but he took care of his players. He sent and paid for a Mayo doctor for Matt Millen’s dad. If there was anything he could do for his key players, he did it. He didn’t want to cut the worst QB in league history because he thought Russell could be a SB QB.
Seabass is the only player currently involved in any off field issues, and that’s for a misdemeanor. He’s no Cendric Benson, Tank Johnson or that other player who was with the Cowboys that I can’t recall his name. None of the current players have even been charged with a DUI, a claim a lot of teams can’t make right now.
So I really don’t know the basis of all this thug/parole stuff, but you’re just wrong here.
Or perhaps you are just trolling me. Oh well.
sluggo
3419
Wow, that’s a huge deal. It’s also a massive price to pay, but franchise QBs are incredibly tough to find. Just ask the Dolphins, who have had 16 starting QBs in the 10 years since Marino retired.
That’s a staggeringly bad trade for the Raiders.
Wow. Brown>Belichick.
