4201

They were very likely going to win either way, so it’s just an odds question of which choice gave the highest chance to win. I thought their best bet was to go for it, but it was probably not huge difference either way. As a numbers guy though, it’s the kind of thing that catches my attention.

4202

Winning and losing isn’t the sole arbiter of whether a decision is right or wrong. The Raiders made a dumb call against the Browns last month and won not because of it, but in spite of it. The Chargers had the chance to run the clock out in their first game against the Chiefs and and bad clock management gave the Chiefs a completely unnecessary chance to tie the game in the final minute. The fact that these teams survived these decisions doesn’t mean they were the right ones.

In last night’s case, we’re probably splitting hairs a little. The odds of the Chargers scoring a TD in the final minute with no timeouts is going to be low whether they start at the 40 or the 15. But you figure the odds of the Raiders getting a first down on 4th and 1 are probably about 70%, so I’d rather take that chance to win the game right there than bite my nails in the final minute.

4203

That’s great. I am pointing out that you are saying going for it and failing - yet -still winning - against the Browns and not going for it and still winning are both bad decisions. I have no idea what criteria you are using except your own brain.

I guess you missed my post where I posted that the odds for the Raiders of converting 4th and short were exactly 50%. And the odds of the Chargers scoring a TD starting on the 15 or deeper is definitely lower than it is from the 40. I agree we’re splitting hairs to an extent but I disagree that Jackson should be brought out onto the carpet for the decision.

4204

Actually, winning or losing is the only thing that matter in regards to this decision. I didn’t watch the game, but if the Raiders won the game (as they did) then they must have made the right call. imho.

4205

The Redskins beat the Giants in the season opener with Rex Grossman throwing for 305 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. Since the Redskins won the game, then they must have made the right call going with Rex at quarterback.

In other news, Tim Tebow JUST WINS GAMES, Joe Flacco is the next elite quarterback in the league until he doesn’t lead a 92-yard drive to win the game, Brett Favre’s just having fun out there, the Eagles are the favorites/most disappointing team in the league/definitely back/losing their swagger, and you PLAY to WIN the GAME.

4206

I let this go the first time because I couldn’t believe you said something so dumb, but because you’re bringing it up again: do you think teams should have a blanket policy for 4th and 1? That all 4th and 1’s are created equal, so if you go for it in one situation, you have to go for it in every situation? Are you serious?

Yes, Bill, in the Browns game, I thought going for it in that particular situation was incredibly dumb (and in fact it let the Browns back in the game for no good reason), while in other cases, I think going for it is the smarter play. Are you saying you’re having trouble wrapping your head around the concept that sometimes you should go for it, and sometimes you shouldn’t? Please tell me things haven’t descended to that level of idiocy.

And for anyone who thinks that winning justifies every decision you made in that game … are you kidding? Coaches make awful decisions all the time, but they don’t always cost them games. It doesn’t make them right.

4207

There’s all sorts of interesting stuff about going for it on 4th and short. There’s a lot of evidence that, statistically, teams are often better off going for it than punting. But go for it and make it, you’re a genius, go for it and fail and you’re an idiot. It’s all just post-hoc justification. Statistically, there is a better call, even when the results aren’t what you hoped for. Punting is just the most risk-averse choice.

4208

And if you go for it, fail, and give the Chargers a lot shorter field to drive down for a game tying touchdown at the end of regulation, you might not have a job the next day as a head coach*.

*Assuming Al is still directing the club from his phylactary.

4209

Pretty much. I can’t remember the paper, but a pair of economists determined 10 years ago that coaches are about an order of magnitude more conservative on fourth down than they ought to be.

4210

I may have mentioned this before, but Scorecasting is a really fun read with a whole section about it. He points out that Belichick probably has the most secure coaching job in the league, and he’s one of the most frequent to go for it on 4th. But he still catches hell if he goes for it and fails.

The other big football topic that I recall is the relative over-valuation of 1st round draft picks, because everybody uses the same valuation sheet that was first calculated in the '80s.

4211

I’m really disappointed in you Bill. You don’t usually play the “intentionally obtuse ass”. The Raiders absolutely ran over the Chargers last night. Falling back on a tiny sample set of 4th down conversions as indicative of this game is short sighted. Then further assuming failing the conversion had a big impact on SD’s odds after that is further disingenuous given how the Raiders harassed Brees all night. Then equating a bad go for it decision a couple weeks ago with the circumstances this game makes me wonder if you have even cursory understanding of football and probabilities.

4212

Oh this should turn out well.

No I’m not serious, because I didn’t say that. Did I say that? I didn’t say that.

You are using a failed attempt at a 4th down conversion to support your argument that the Raiders should have gone for it on 4th down, fuck you.

Let’s talk idiocy. Who won the game last night? How did the Chargers last possession go? If they scored a touchdown I missed it. How far did they move the ball? How much closer would they have been to the end zone of you add 36 yards to where Rivers spikes the ball on 1st and 10 after completing a 22 yard pass (as Lechler’s punt was 36 yards)? I’ll tell you: the fucking 14 yard line. Fuck off.

How is a decision bad if it doesn’t even cost the team who made it points, surrenders bad field position, or a turnover?

See above. Anyone who doesn’t think field position matters needs to watch more pro football.

Brees plays for another team you imbecile. And in confusing QBs you also confused me with sluggo, because I really don’t care about that game a few weeks ago except to say it doesn’t help his argument for shit. See the above stats for the Chargers’ final drive. The Raiders were almost exactly at midfield when they had 4th and 1. I’m fine with agreeing that the Browns game, the decision to go for it was ill-advised. Not in Thursday’s game.

Let’s talk more stats so we can all see how stupid I am. 3rd and 4th down conversion stats in last night’s game for the Raiders who were able to allegedly get yards whenever they needed them:

3rd down: 4/10 40%

4th down: 0/1 0%

Sorry I let you down by supporting the smart coaching decision that helped win the game.

4213

Yeah, that’s not even in the ballpark of what I was saying.

I think the Raiders decision to go for it against the Browns a few weeks ago was 100% idiocy, and I’d like to see anyone try to argue otherwise. I don’t think it’s even questionable.

I think last night’s situation is more debatable. You talk about the Raiders doing a bad job on 3rd and 4th downs, but Bush had 150+ yards rushing on the night and their offensive line was dominating the game. I’d prefer to have gone for the knockout, or at least try to draw them offsides, but I don’t think the punt was the worst play of all time.

Why you think these two views contradict each other, kicking in one situation but going for it in another, I don’t know. I think different situations call for different plays. If you can show me where I said they should have gone for it last night because they failed a few weeks ago, I’d love to see it.

4214

I’m not going to argue that, and I don’t think Bill is either. Other than pointing out a bad coaching decision I’m not sure why it’s included in this arguement.

I think last night’s situation is more debatable. You talk about the Raiders doing a bad job on 3rd and 4th downs, but Bush had 150+ yards rushing on the night and their offensive line was dominating the game. I’d prefer to have gone for the knockout, or at least try to draw them offsides, but I don’t think the punt was the worst play of all time.

Punting in that exact situtation (against the Chargers, with about a minute to go) is a far smarter play than going for it. Assuming they were going to run the ball (which seems to be the thrust of your arguement) the Raiders could have a) fumbled it (a non-zero but not high probability); b) gotten some penalty (hey, it is the Raiders we’re talking about here) that would end up resulting in a punt; c)not gotten it (they hadn’t once already in the game); or d) gotten it.

Football coaches may be too conservative in play calling; I’m not going to argue with that because I don’t know most of the stats behind how they call plays. You’re Hue Jackson: you’ve got a quarterback that’s played only his second game with the team, and while your defense has done pretty well, you know that even an 80% Philip Rivers* is capable of marching that ball down the field quickly, even with no timeouts. A 60/40 or even 70/30 chance of making that first down running? You punt the ball and make him march a little longer.

*Something is wrong with him. No idea if he’s hurt or just off this year though.

4215

That’s fine with me. I don’t really care about that game.

Do I really need to say this? Being able to run on any random down is not the same as trying to convert a 3rd or 4th and short where the defense is nearly dead certain that it is going to be an off-tackle run up the middle out of an I formation set or something close enough to it. I can’t be the only one who groans on short yardage or goal-to-go when I see that fucking formation. There are teams who can’t stop a clock with a sledgehammer that stuff that play against some of the top rushing teams in the league.

I’d love to see you address the counterpoints I just made beyond waving your hand and grumbling about something you yourself brought up from another game. ever think that maybe Hue learned his lesson because of that game? So maybe last night’s decision wasn’t so stupid because he saw what happens if you get too cute?

4216

I think a key question is “why are you in fourth and 1?” If it’s because you picked up nine yards rushing on first down and then threw two incompletions, then maybe you can run it. However, if it’s the far more likely scenario where you’re in fourth and 1 because you got stuffed on third down, that has to play into your decision. Are you confident enough in your OL to get that yard when they know you’re going to run, or are you confident enough in your QB to complete a pass on fourth down? I think it’s pretty clear Jackson wasn’t going to put the game in Palmer’s hands, and he also wasn’t confident that they could go out and pick up that yard.

4217

According the nfl. com’s play by play, the Raiders last possession was:

Bush for -1 yards
Palmer incomplete
Palmer for 24 yards
Bush for no gain
Palmer for -2 yards
Bush for 11 yards

Bush ripped off a good one to get them to 4th and 1 but he was stuffed on 2 other carries so I would presume Jackson was nervous.

4218

I’m bored with talking about last night’s 4th down call, because we’ve already said several times that it’s probably splitting hairs. Whether the Raiders go for it or punt it, they probably win the game better than 90% of the time either way.

But if you want to argue about something, how about this?

So you think that since the Chargers moved the ball 39 yards starting from the 11 before the sacks, that automatically means they would have moved the ball 39 yards if they started from the 45? The Raiders wouldn’t have played a different, tighter defense as the Chargers moved down the field?

Do you seriously believe that, Mr. “anyone who doesn’t think field position matters needs to watch more pro football”?

Come on, Bill. You’re better than this.

4219

I do think that it makes sense that Jackson might have been apprehensive last night because of the 4th down stuff a few weeks ago. It might just boil down to him not being that confident in his 4th and short package, in which case the punt makes more sense.

4220

Sigh, such incredible hostility Bill. I know you’re volatile, but your behavior goes well beyond reasonable into true loss of emotional control. How about we just block each other?