The NFL 2011 Thread

Brettmcd · 2011-11-28T09:55:50.000Z

Blackadar:

Um, okay. So Tebow is better than Rivers, Freeman, Bradford, McCoy and Vick based on 65 completed passes? That’s some mighty strong Kool-Aid you’re drinking there.

He is better in the only stat that really matters in the end, games won, none of them are 5-1 as a starter this year.

Scuzz · 2011-11-28T09:57:59.000Z

Credit for this winning streak goes to (in order):

The Denver defense, for simply not allowing teams to put a lot of points on the board. This allows Fox to continue to run his game plan and keeps Tebow from having to put the ball up. We saw what happens when he’s forced to do that…it was a 35 point loss. They’re playing good, hard, smart defense. I’m impressed with that group.

100% agree.

And while Tebow sucks as a thrower he is apparently a leader and the team has bought into him. He has done what few QB’s are able to do, bring his team back in the 4th quarter of games.

gameoverman · 2011-11-28T09:59:13.000Z

Another argument that I think is weak is that defenses need more time to make some sort of adjustment to Tebow, THEN they’ll stop him.

But the guy can’t throw consistently, he does his main damage running. How many seconds does a defensive coordinator need to see that and adjust his defense accordingly? Is Tebow such a complex QB that defenses require the game films from two thirds of a season before they can figure him out? Come on!

Give the guy the credit he’s earned, they HAVE figured him out, he just has been able to overcome that and figure out what he needs to do to compensate.

Scuzz · 2011-11-28T10:02:42.000Z

gameoverman:

Another argument that I think is weak is that defenses need more time to make some sort of adjustment to Tebow, THEN they’ll stop him.

But the guy can’t throw consistently, he does his main damage running. How many seconds does a defensive coordinator need to see that and adjust his defense accordingly? Is Tebow such a complex QB that defenses require the game films from two thirds of a season before they can figure him out? Come on!

Give the guy the credit he’s earned, they HAVE figured him out, he just has been able to overcome that and figure out what he needs to do to compensate.

I don’t think the defenses have figured him out yet. Too many times there is nobody there when he chooses to run. They will figure him out though. Just like they have figured out the “wildcat” offenses and you don’t see guys like Vick and Young running wild anymore.

Blackadar · 2011-11-28T10:10:21.000Z

Shadarr:

If you truly believe smash mouth football is gone from the NFL, you need to watch the Niner-Raven game on NFL Replay. There are still teams that run the ball and stop the run, and do it better than Denver. Denver just isn’t playing any of them.

As a Steelers fan, I’m intimately familiar with smash mouth football. But very few teams do it anymore. My Steelers don’t do it anymore. Very few teams do. SF is doing it this year. Houston. Oakland. Perhaps Minn on a good day.

Denver is leading the NFL in rushing yards per game. San Fran is 7th. Baltimore is 26th. But look at the last few weeks and they’re alone in their level of “smash mouth”. Since changing the game plan to accommodate Tebow, they’re running the ball 60% of the time.

Att-Yards
40-177
30-195
39-299
55-244
34-125
51-208

That’s 208 yards per game on average on 41 carries. No other team is even close to those numbers. Just FYI, the 4 games that Tebow didn’t play in? 24 carries for 87 yards on average. That’s a whole different level of downhill blocking since Fox revamped the game plan.

SF and Baltimore are in the top 6 in rushing defense, but that’s not what I was talking about. Denver’s running game and lack of turnovers enables their defense to play with a long field. Winning the field position battle is a crucial component to their winning games.

Blackadar · 2011-11-28T10:16:02.000Z

Brettmcd:

He is better in the only stat that really matters in the end, games won, none of them are 5-1 as a starter this year.

I’ve argued in the past that some guys do just know how to win. It’s an inherent trait. Big Ben has it. So did John Elway. Perhaps Tebow is one of those guys. But given the other facts (you know, the ones mentioned on the last 2 pages of this thread), it’s a tad bit early to subscribe Denver’s success in any way, shape or form to Tebow.

archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com

Tebow

Is Tebow the reason the Broncos are winning? Every third news item or blog post I come across seems to be pulling its collective hair out, p...

BaconTastesGood · 2011-11-28T10:19:35.000Z

Scuzz:

He has done what few QB’s are able to do, bring his team back in the 4th quarter of games.

…by letting their team get behind in the first place.

Lorini · 2011-11-28T10:20:42.000Z

Watching Tebow face the Pats or the Ravens in the playoffs is almost worth the Raiders not going. Almost.

inactive_user · 2011-11-28T10:23:51.000Z

Just followed that link to the season stats for QBs, and my god is Rodgers disgusting. I knew he destroyed the Vikings’ D and looked unearthly good doing it, but Tebow could pick apart our secondary. The fact that he does that against everybody, every week, is just unbelievable.

Fucking Packers. Is there another team in all of sports that sucks more to have as your primary rival/hated team? Christ.

Wallapuctus · 2011-11-28T10:32:20.000Z

The Yankees? I am a terrible Bostonian and I cheer when the Red Sox lose, because I hate their fans.

Erik_J · 2011-11-28T10:35:32.000Z

Wallapuctus:

The Yankees? I am a terrible Bostonian and I cheer when the Red Sox lose, because I hate their fans.

Yankees AND Red Sox. In the same division. Woe to us Orioles fans.

Blackadar · 2011-11-28T10:36:12.000Z

Lorini:

Watching Tebow face the Pats or the Ravens in the playoffs is almost worth the Raiders not going. Almost.

You won’t have to wait that long. Denver vs. New England is in 3 weeks.

Mightynute · 2011-11-28T10:48:02.000Z

Erik J.:

Yankees AND Red Sox. In the same division. Woe to us Orioles fans.

I thought the Orioles retired in 2001?

TimJames · 2011-11-28T10:50:43.000Z

Blackadar:

But given the other facts (you know, the ones mentioned on the last 2 pages of this thread), it’s a tad bit early to subscribe Denver’s success in any way, shape or form to Tebow.

I tried to discuss this with you, but your reply only contained one or two relevant sentences to my previous post so I dropped it.

To take one more stab at it: you specifically described “reasons Denver is winning,” and I countered that you ought to list Tebow’s execution of the comeback drives as number six. Perhaps the reason for that success is the worn out defense. That’s fine. But you can’t replace Tebow with any quarterback and expect the same wins merely due to the previous five reasons. If the quarterback is a hapless loser, or a choker, or tries to do too much, or lacks leadership, or can’t improvise, then I argue Denver doesn’t go 5-1 on that stretch. Instead they just lose a bunch of close games.

Therefore, he is still an important reason for Denver’s success in some way, shape, or form.

We’re not setting a high bar here, people. Just put him on the list to give him some credit.

Bill_Dungsroman · 2011-11-28T10:51:35.000Z

Tim James:

I tried to discuss this with you, but your reply only contained one or two relevant sentences to my previous post so I dropped it.

To take one more stab at it: you specifically described “reasons Denver is winning,” and I countered that you ought to list Tebow’s execution of the comeback drives as number six. Perhaps the reason for that success is the worn out defense. That’s fine. But you can’t replace Tebow with any quarterback and expect the same wins due to the previous five reasons. If the quarterback is a hapless loser, or a choker, or tries to do too much, or lacks leadership, or can’t improvise, then I argue Denver doesn’t go 5-1 on that stretch.

Therefore, he is still an important reason for Denver’s success in some way, shape, or form.

We’re not setting a high bar here, people. Just put him on the list to give him some credit.

Kyle Orton doesn’t go 5-1, that much I can tell you.

Mark_Asher · 2011-11-28T10:55:51.000Z

Brandon Clements:

I agree; a full camp, in pads for defenses to get at least prepped for playing a read-option is going to put a damper on both Tebow and to an extent Cam. I think Cam’s in a much better long-term position, because he’s shown he can air the ball out.

I also expect a lot of middle-tier read-option QB’s to be signed to practice squads in the off season.

How much time do you think defenses are going to devote to practicing against the option offense?

Anyway, Tebow completed a lot of passes in college. He stands a good chance of continuing to develop as a passer in the NFL, though I doubt he’s ever going to be a great passer.

Shmtur · 2011-11-28T11:03:14.000Z

Bill Dungsroman:

Kyle Orton doesn’t go 5-1, that much I can tell you.

You’re right, he went 6-0 before he fell apart ;)

Brettmcd · 2011-11-28T11:06:33.000Z

Blackadar:

I’ve argued in the past that some guys do just know how to win. It’s an inherent trait. Big Ben has it. So did John Elway. Perhaps Tebow is one of those guys. But given the other facts (you know, the ones mentioned on the last 2 pages of this thread), it’s a tad bit early to subscribe Denver’s success in any way, shape or form to Tebow.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2011/11/tebow.html#more

What else has changed since Orton went 1-4 with the same defense, the same O-line and the same RBs?

TimJames · 2011-11-28T11:09:24.000Z

Brettmcd:

What else has changed since Orton went 1-4 with the same defense, the same O-line and the same RBs?

Christ, Brett, I’ve got this. The man’s entire thesis is about what has changed since they went 1-4. Now be quiet and let me help Blackadar find a middle ground where we can give Tebow some credit (more than merely running every now and then) without him having to repeat what he’s said.

Blackadar · 2011-11-28T11:13:23.000Z

Tim James:

I tried to discuss this with you, but your reply only contained one or two relevant sentences to my previous post so I dropped it.

To take one more stab at it: you specifically described “reasons Denver is winning,” and I countered that you ought to list Tebow’s execution of the comeback drives as number six. Perhaps the reason for that success is the worn out defense. That’s fine. But you can’t replace Tebow with any quarterback and expect the same wins due to the previous five reasons. If the quarterback is a hapless loser, or a choker, or tries to do too much, or lacks leadership, or can’t improvise, then I argue Denver doesn’t go 5-1 on that stretch.

Therefore, he is still an important reason for Denver’s success in some way, shape, or form.

We’re not setting a high bar here, people. Just put him on the list to give him some credit.

I did. #3. He’s not turning the ball over. Essentially, Tebow isn’t losing games. I also specifically replied to your post with “The credit due to Tebow is for his legs and his head (not making mistakes), not his arm.”.

But I’ve even posted links to advance football stats that show Tebow’s performance isn’t helping to win games nearly as much as other factors. In fact, I also detailed Tebow’s performance in a couple of his “comeback drives”. He did it largely with his legs.

Bill Dungsroman:

Kyle Orton doesn’t go 5-1, that much I can tell you.

Actually, if the team rushed for 200 yards a game while he was QB, he probably would have. Of course, the team may not have been able to rush for 200 yards per game with him in there, though the pass-first offense that they started the season with doesn’t suit Denver’s OL in the least.

But you’re probably right. The Broncos weren’t built around Orton’s talents and they didn’t play as well as a team with him in there (against better competition). Orton himself didn’t play very well at the start of this season. 9 turnovers in 4.5 games puts a lot of pressure on your defense.

But you know what? I remember hearing something just like that in 2005. A young QB stepped in and was anointed the savior of the franchise as his team racked up a number of wins. His name? Kyle Orton. His team racked up a 10-5 record after going 5-11 the year before. The next year his team went to the Super Bowl under Rex Grossman and Orton didn’t play a down. Orton also went 6-0 in his first 6 games as a Bronco and then the team fell apart.