4861

Quality of opponent?

The five teams Orton started against have a combined record of 35-20 (.636); the six teams Tebow has faced have a combined record of 31-35 (.470).

4862

I did. #3. He’s not turning the ball over. :)

At this point, I think it’s incumbent upon you to show why Tebow belongs in that top 5 for Denver’s win streak. The stats that show Tebow’s performance isn’t helping to win games nearly as much as other factors. If it makes you feel better, then the list was a top 5. Put him at #6. That’s probably where he belongs in order of importance.

It’s possible he deserves to be higher. Perhaps his importance can’t be reflected in the stats? That’s entirely possible. Is the reason they’re rushing for 200+ yards per game due to Tebow? He’s certainly a factor, though I’m not sure how much of a factor he is as compared to the improved performance of the OL and the overall commitment to the running game. It’s a team game and sometimes replacing one cog makes the whole machine run better. Sometimes, you have to come up with a new machine (or game plan). Sometimes it just takes time for the parts to break in properly. Sometimes it’s easier if the machine doesn’t have to work as hard.

There’s probably all of that going on in Denver right now. Tebow, easy schedule, OL, D, turnovers, game plan, special teams, etc. But if all of that is going almost perfectly right now and they’re winning games by the skin of their teeth, what does that really say?

You made a statement that not any QB could win those games. I entirely agree. But let me counter that with this: If your running game is averaging 200+ yards per game and your offense isn’t turning the ball over at all (something Tebow shares in the credit for), don’t you think most any QB would win the majority of their games in the NFL?

4863

Internet Discussion.

Seriously though, I feel better knowing you didn’t read and process the post. Every now and then I fear for the basic functional reasoning of society, but it always ends up as a misunderstanding. I’m good now.

4864

Hell, even Rex Grossman had a half-season tear with Chicago one year, before turning into a pumpkin for the rest of his career. Football Outsiders listed it as one of the biggest second-half collapses in the “modern era,” loosely defined as years in which they have play-by-play data.

In Vince Young’s rookie season, the league was full of people pointing out that VY’s “heroic comebacks” proved he just had what it takes to be a leader, proven winner, so forth and so on. Even when he played poorly during those games but put it together at the end, you had people discounting the first 90% of the game to focus only on the last 10%. Vince Young is now a backup in Philadelphia behind another player beloved for his physical gifts and who had his many shortcomings ignored by fans who pointed to wins when he won and a poor supporting cast when he lost.

The Redskins went 5-1 in Jim Zorn’s first six games. Josh McDaniels went 6-0 to start his career, including a fist-pumping victory over the Patriots. Vince Young won Rookie of the Year. Laurence Maroney rushed for 1,000 yards. Michael Clayton aced his rookie season with Tampa Bay, looking for all the world like the next big thing at wide receiver. Tony Sparano led the best worst-to-first transition in NFL history in Miami, and he’ll be fired by the end of the season.

Joe Gibbs lost his first five games as a head coach. Jimmy Johnson went 1-15 as the head coach of the Dallas Cowboys in his first year. John Elway threw twice as many picks as touchdowns in his rookie year. Peyton Manning led the NFL with 28 interceptions his rookie year. Alex Smith had to wait for Week 17 to throw his first TD pass of his rookie season, and he was the #1 overall draft pick.

Tony Sparano may be the best comparison at this point. What led the Dolphins’ resurgence that year? The Wildcat. They rode that interesting formation for all it was worth during the season, beating the fire out of the Patriots in its debut and making it all the way to the playoffs, where the Ravens outschemed them and shut it down. The next season, the Wildcat basically went away after it was deemed ineffective and largely a waste of time and energy. Teams knew it was coming, and they finally knew how to shut it down. Tebow’s college-option offense is another thing brought over from the NCAA that could similarly be shut down next year, or by the time he takes on teams in the upper half of the league.

AND FURTHERMORE the reason everyone is loving Tebow right now, football-wise, is his fourth-quarter comebacks/game-winning drives. He’s had three this year – Pro Football Reference rightly gives him no credit for a “drive” where Eddie Royal returns a punt for an 85-yard score and Willis McGahee scores two 20+ yard TDs. So, three in one year. He just wins games!

In 2002, David Carr led three fourth quarter comebacks for the 2002 Texans. He last started a game for the Carolina Panthers in 2007 and is playing for his fifth team.

In 2010, Mark Sanchez had SIX of these. Advanced stats have him on Jamarcus Russell’s career path.

Russell himself had two of these in 2008 and two more in 2009. He just wins games! He is out of the league.

JP Losman had three each in 2006 and 2007. He is out of the league.

Davis Garrard had 3 in 2007, 3 in 2008, 4 in 2009, and 5 in 2010. He was cut before the season started. Where is the David Garrard “He Just Wins Games” support club? He’s shown that when you need a critical win, he’s the best guy to go to over the last four years.

Aaron Rodgers has only led 5 game-winning drives in his career, with just one last year and none this year. Then again, the Packers may not have trailed in the fourth quarter at all this year.

Wins are not the only thing that matters when evaluating a player. They are not the only thing that matters when evaluating a team, either. There is more to football than just the end result.

MORAL OF THE STORY: Wait a few seasons before calling Tim Tebow a “winner” or whatever. This could stand the test of time, he could have extended success as his game matures, or he could be a one year wonder. In the case of Alex Smith, we’ve waited six season to find out, and we should probably wait at least one more just to be sure.

4865

Have the Packers trailed at all this season?

4866

If it weren’t for the whole Jesus sensationalism angle, would anyone even have paid attention to Tim Tebow?

4867

Yes, they have. 13-0 to Carolina in week 2, I remember. I’m flipping through boxscores of the other games to see.

14-0 to Atlanta, various 7 point leads to Minnesota, 7-0 to San Diego, and that’s it. No more than 14 points. I don’t think they’ve ever trailed in the second half, but I wasn’t looking that closely.

I don’t know how much his Jesus played into his college career, but any college QB with a following will get an NFL following. But I don’t think there’d be this kind of buzz at all.

4868

You mean the start of the 2010 season under McDaniels? Interesting comparison. Not sure how it applies here.

4869

For me it was a combination of several things: first, the ridiculous overhyping the media did of him during his college career, especially his last two years; second, that Superbowl commercial, and third, the fact that he was drafted WAY out of his depth because of 1) above, and so got a shitload more money than he “deserves” just because he played the media so well. And yes, he played the media.

4870

For a lot of people that is the main reason why they dislike him so much.

4871

Which is understandable. But the gimmick works - it gets his name out there, and people will go see Broncos games either to watch him succeed or hope to see him fail. They’ll visit websites with stories about him, they’ll watch the interviews and the replays. All of which drives up ad revenue. He’s a marketing wet dream - add to that the absolutely inexplicable success he’s having, and Tim Tebow is probably one of the most marketable things about NFL football at the moment.

I have to give him his props, though, for finally breaking me of my habit of asking “Wait, is Elway sitting out a series?” when I see anyone else behind center for the Broncos.

4872

Probably not as much, but he’s the epitome of the “football player/athlete” vs. “traditional QB” argument. Can you win consistently with a guy who is a good football player but doesn’t have the fundamentals of a traditional QB? Or a guy who is an athlete but not a great QB?

Guys like Randall Cunningham dealt, Kordell Stewart, Steve Young, Fran Tarkington and Michael Vick all dealt with that question with various degrees of success. In fact, that question at one point was a codeword for the “you can’t win with a black QB” school of thought 30+ years ago. There’s generally no racial component to that question anymore, but the basic premise of the original question remains a valid one- Can you win consistently with a non-traditional QB?

Tebow is the modern epitome of that question. But it’s the Christianity aspect that makes the Tebow steak sizzle for the media. He’s put that out there in the media and used it for endorsements and to provide his opinion on non-football issues. It’s not hard for someone to come to the conclusion that he’s essentially “selling” his faith and that pisses a lot of people off. Hence he’s now a pretty polarizing figure.

The guy doesn’t tick me off at all. I love football players and guys like him are fun to watch. They enjoy the game and are throwbacks to a different era. That’s why I like guys like Hines Ward, James Harrison and Ray Lewis. They’re a different breed. I put Tebow in as that kind of player. I just don’t think that the Broncos can win long term with him at QB unless he drastically improves as a passer and I don’t think their recent success is largely due to Tebow’s performance on the field.

4873

I am a very rare exception to that rule, as I think Tim Tebow’s success has kept me from watching football this season.

4874

Why would his being sucessful stop you from watching football? I don’t quite understand how that would work.

4875

You really don’t think Orton could have managed to score 14 points against a bunch of mostly bad teams?

4876

Because I don’t like his fans. I don’t like watching someone succeed and have praise heaped on them despite the fact that they are playing very badly. I don’t like reading about how “everyone was wrong about him, he just wins games!” as if that sums the whole thing up.

I have felt similarly in the past. During Michael Vick’s return to the NFL, I avoided as many Eagles games as I could as I don’t like Vick as a person. I avoided all Brett Favre highlights while he was in Minnesota because of the announcers’ overwhelming adoration for him. But those pale in comparison to Tebow’s fans. Tim Tebow’s fans make me hate football almost as much as sports radio, and I can avoid sports radio by never listening to anything but my iPod from August to February. I can’t avoid Tebow because everyone is constantly talking about him everywhere in the NFL.

Also, Washington sucks, Jamaal Charles got hurt, Jason Campbell is done for the year, and I can only watch Aaron Rodgers dissect a defense so many times before it becomes rote.

4877

You know there are 31 teams that don’t have Tebow, right?

4878

Peter King on the Broncos:

Stop saying Denver’s fluky, because it’s a lie. The recipe for the Broncos winning five of six is not Tebow, Tebow and more Tebow. It’s defense and the running game keeping things close. It’s Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil rushing the passer and keeping him uncomfortable, and a reborn Willis McGahee (4.8 yards per carry at age 31) pounding defenses with the changeup ability of Tebow thrown in. And Eric Decker making circus catches. That about covers it.

Sound familiar?

4879

Of course, King is also the guy who was all “Tebow Just Wins” a week or two ago, so. Dude says a lot of stuff.

4880

Jim Mora doesn’t, and every game I want to watch has him covering it.

I am in Kansas City. We get a lot of Tebow here since Denver’s in our division. I also personally interact with some crazy Tebow fans very often and it saps my will to live because he just won’t fail dammit.

It’s an irrational reason to not watch, and is at least equaled by the injuries to my favorite players and the continued destruction of my favorite team. Watching your local team lose by 28+ points each week for the first two weeks of the season while your favorite players on the offensive and defensive side of the ball go out for the year does a lot of damage to your excitement for the season.

There is also some lockout fatigue.