The NFL 2011 Thread

Sarkus · 2011-11-28T13:13:20.000Z

Despite losing Schaub and Leinart, Houston still has a shot because apparently Miami is going to release Sage Rosenfels, who backed up Schaub for a couple of years before Leinart arrived. Rosenfels signed with the Dolphins but never played this year because he ended up on IR due to some vague “blood infection” issue.

The only question would be whether another team claims Rosenfels to block him signing with Houston.

Shadarr · 2011-11-28T13:16:53.000Z

Matt Bowyer:

It’s an irrational reason to not watch, and is at least equaled by the injuries to my favorite players and the continued destruction of my favorite team. Watching your local team lose by 28+ points each week for the first two weeks of the season while your favorite players on the offensive and defensive side of the ball go out for the year does a lot of damage to your excitement for the season.

That makes a lot more sense than Tebow (and Jamaal Charles was my first round pick in fantasy, dammit). Back when the Niners were sucking, we used to watch games and root for a loss. That’s how you get high draft picks and new coaches.

Matt_Bowyer · 2011-11-28T13:24:07.000Z

Shadarr:

That makes a lot more sense than Tebow (and Jamaal Charles was my first round pick in fantasy, dammit). Back when the Niners were sucking, we used to watch games and root for a loss. That’s how you get high draft picks and new coaches.

Tebow plays a part, though! Tebow was the midseason backbreaker, the “you’re not going to watch any more Chiefs games because they’re going to talk about the Broncos and also the Chiefs are awful.” And when my other team is trotting out John Beck or Rex Grossman’s Adventures In Zone Reads, well dammit.

Tebow being the focus of six weeks of breathless NFL coverage just had me tune out the day-after columns, which ended up being the deathblow for the NFL midseason. I haven’t done anything over the last month but set fantasy lineups, make the NFL pick thread, and go stat-crawling during slow stretches to debate on here. And I’m even bad at that, since I keep forgetting to see who’s injured in fantasy football and keep starting injured kickers.

Lorini · 2011-11-28T13:43:08.000Z

People are just missing all the Brett Favre talk. It feels like the same exact shit with a few words changed around.

Bill_Dungsroman · 2011-11-28T13:50:54.000Z

mkozlows:

You really don’t think Orton could have managed to score 14 points against a bunch of mostly bad teams?

Orton with the old offense they were running, with the team essentially listless? No, not at all. It’s almost a chicken and the egg argument. They don’t play like this without Tebow, without Tebow they don’t play like this!

mkozlows · 2011-11-28T13:57:41.000Z

Lorini:

People are just missing all the Brett Favre talk. It feels like the same exact shit with a few words changed around.

Announcers were certainly slow to catch on the fact that Favre’s skills were declining as he approached 40 (though to be fair to them, two of his last four years were career-high years that led into the playoffs), but I don’t think anyone questioned whether he fundamentally had the skills to be an NFL QB.

Also, and I’ve just thought about this for the first time, I think if you look at it with hindsight, Childress looks pretty vindicated in his desire to get Favre on the team. I mean, it’s not like Tarvaris Jackson or Donovan McNabb turned out to be better options than even broken-down last season Favre, never mind the rejuvenated penultimate-season Favre who took them to within inches of the Super Bowl.

mkozlows · 2011-11-28T14:00:10.000Z

Bill Dungsroman:

Orton with the old offense they were running, with the team essentially listless? No, not at all. It’s almost a chicken and the egg argument. They don’t play like this without Tebow, without Tebow they don’t play like this!

I think there’s two separate points there: 1) If everyone’s giving up, you need to change something at random, just to make a change. That’s the same logic that says Andy Reid needs to be fired in Philadelphia, even though he’s objectively a very good coach. And that’s fine, I can see that.

But my point is more along the lines of 2) if you replace Kyle Orton with his secret twin Myle Morton, who is a hyped-up rookie but plays exactly like Kyle Orton, do the Broncos win against the bad opponents Tebow beats? And I think they do.

Lloyd_Heilbrunn · 2011-11-28T14:24:59.000Z

Blackadar:

EDIT:
I truly believe that something has been lost over the years in the concept of football and Denver just may be proving me right. I’ve always thought smash mouth football wins football games and that’s been lost in the pass-happy NFL. There are a lot of intangibles when your OL is always driving forward and hitting the opposing DL. Mentally, your whole offense is attacking (“running downhill” is mostly mental) and you keep the pressure on. Guys on the opposing side tend to get worn down. You tend to control the clock better AND the pace of the game. So long as you’re not fumbling, you tend to control field position better. Your defense can play with a long field, allowing them to bend but not break.

Denver is doing just that and they’re winning games. It’s not a coincidence.

Smashmouth football only wins in the modern NFL if your QB makes plays in the 4th. Bill The Fraud Parcells proved that in Miami. It’s still all about the QB.

Brandon_Clements · 2011-11-28T14:28:38.000Z

mkozlows:

But my point is more along the lines of 2) if you replace Kyle Orton with his secret twin Myle Morton, who is a hyped-up rookie but plays exactly like Kyle Orton, do the Broncos win against the bad opponents Tebow beats? And I think they do.

Maybe, but I’m not even sure Kyle Orton’s excited to play for Kyle Orton.

Lloyd_Heilbrunn · 2011-11-28T14:33:48.000Z

Matt Bowyer:

Tony Sparano may be the best comparison at this point. What led the Dolphins’ resurgence that year? The Wildcat. They rode that interesting formation for all it was worth during the season, beating the fire out of the Patriots in its debut and making it all the way to the playoffs, where the Ravens outschemed them and shut it down. The next season, the Wildcat basically went away after it was deemed ineffective and largely a waste of time and energy. Teams knew it was coming, and they finally knew how to shut it down. Tebow’s college-option offense is another thing brought over from the NCAA that could similarly be shut down next year, or by the time he takes on teams in the upper half of the league.

.

The Wildcat was a factor, but the key in the Fins’ 2008 season was Pennington winning those close 4th quarter games. No Pennington, and you see the last 3 years what the same philosophy has wrought.

Matt_Bowyer · 2011-11-28T14:52:07.000Z

Lloyd Heilbrunn:

The Wildcat was a factor, but the key in the Fins’ 2008 season was Pennington winning those close 4th quarter games. No Pennington, and you see the last 3 years what the same philosophy has wrought.

I doubt this statement. Not to take anything away from Chad Pennington, but I just don’t think that’s true. But I could be very, very wrong. To the Wayback Machine! Or, uh, Pro Football Reference.

First off, the Pennington analysis. In 2008, he had two games where he led game-winning drives, either comebacks or tiebreakers, in the fourth quarter. Two games out of eleven wins.

Week 3, Miami led 28-13 going into the fourth. Pennington played hyper-efficiently, but Ronnie Brown scored 4 touchdowns and the team rushed for over 200 yards. This was the Wildcat game.
Week 4, Miami led 17-10 going into the fourth. Pennington was again very efficient. Miami allowed all of 200 yards of offense to San Diego.
Week 8. Miami led 17-16 going into the fourth. They kicked two field goals and got a safety during the fourth quarter. I don’t know how long the drives were, or where they started. Pennington threw for 300 yards while the running game averaged 2 ypc. Score one for Chad!
Week 9. Miami led 16-10, and scoring was traded back and forth, though they never trailed. Pennington played well, 200 yards and a pick. Miami picked off three Jay Cutler passes, returned one for a score early, and benefited from 10 Denver penalties.
Week 10. Miami led 14-13, Pennington threw for 200 and a score and a pick, and Miami gave up a late TD but stopped the two-point conversion. The late drive that iced the game was 16 plays, 78 yards, and ended with a Wildcat counter for the score. Add in a Ricky Williams 51-yard run out of the Wildcat as well.
Week 11. Pennington leads a drive at the end of the game to set up a Dan Carpenter field goal that wins it. Miami rushes for 200+ yards.

This is taking forever. I will concede defeat. I don’t know that I’d say Pennington was the key to the whole season, but I do think his brand of high-percentage passing mixed with the Wildcat made Miami a legitimately good team that year. I don’t think without the Wildcat Miami goes 11-5, but I don’t think with Chad Henne Miami goes 11-5 either. Turns out it’s more than just quarterbacks that win games!

Wallapuctus · 2011-11-28T14:53:23.000Z

Lorini:

People are just missing all the Brett Favre talk. It feels like the same exact shit with a few words changed around.

I can’t wait for the day Tebow gets caught sending pictures of his cock to young girls.

Scuzz · 2011-11-28T14:54:05.000Z

mkozlows:

You really don’t think Orton could have managed to score 14 points against a bunch of mostly bad teams?

Orton’s problem was turnovers…9 in 5 games I think. I am not a Tebow fan but I believe he has yet to throw an INT or a fumbled the ball. How many more points would the Denver defense have given up if Tebow was averaging almost 2 turnovers a game?

Bill_Dungsroman · 2011-11-28T15:00:11.000Z

mkozlows:

But my point is more along the lines of 2) if you replace Kyle Orton with his secret twin Myle Morton, who is a hyped-up rookie but plays exactly like Kyle Orton, do the Broncos win against the bad opponents Tebow beats? And I think they do.

You mean a guy whose completion percentage is only slightly better than Tebow’s, has scored fewer overall TDs and surrendered far more turnovers and has only rushed for 17 yards? Fuck no he doesn’t.

Robert_Sharp · 2011-11-28T15:08:46.000Z

Hmmm…this smells like Vince Young all over again. The doomsday clock is ticking on Denver’s coaching staff.

In the meantime, they should enjoy it. They have a soft schedule and a great defense. Enjoy the wins!

Mark_Asher · 2011-11-28T15:15:04.000Z

Adam B:

Just followed that link to the season stats for QBs, and my god is Rodgers disgusting. I knew he destroyed the Vikings’ D and looked unearthly good doing it, but Tebow could pick apart our secondary. The fact that he does that against everybody, every week, is just unbelievable.

Fucking Packers. Is there another team in all of sports that sucks more to have as your primary rival/hated team? Christ.

They went about 25 years without doing very much. They’ve been good for the last 15 or so, however.

Rodgers is unbelievable this year, though.

Brettmcd · 2011-11-28T15:21:18.000Z

Bill Dungsroman:

You mean a guy whose completion percentage is only slightly better than Tebow’s, has scored fewer overall TDs and surrendered far more turnovers and has only rushed for 17 yards? Fuck no he doesn’t.

Heh I completely agree with you but its no point arguing, winning isnt as important as an impressive looking box score for a QB it seems.

Scuzz · 2011-11-28T15:27:57.000Z

Excellent defense, good running game, so-so QB play.

So are we talking the Bears with McMahon, the Ravens with Dilfer, the Redskins with Williams, the Bucs with Johnson…? All Super Bowl winners.

Not that Tebow and the Broncos are going to get that far.

sluggo · 2011-11-28T16:00:21.000Z

Lloyd Heilbrunn:

The Wildcat was a factor, but the key in the Fins’ 2008 season was Pennington winning those close 4th quarter games.

In 2008, the Dolphins tied an NFL record for fewest turnovers in a season (I believe it was 16). Pennington had 7 INTs for the whole year; by contrast, almost every starting QB this year already has that many or more. They didn’t really ask Pennington to win games, just manage them. Be patient, protect the ball, don’t make the big mistake.

Obviously, there are a lot of parallels to what they did that year to go from 1-15 to 11-5 to what the Broncos are doing now: low-risk, defensive-minded ball control football. They are essentially running out the clock from the start of the game, knowing most weeks that they’re not going to score a lot of points, just trying to get to the 4th quarter within striking distance.

And where the Tebow factor comes in is that he’s a great QB to have for your 2 minute drill. When the opponent is playing prevent and protecting against the big play, it’s easier for him to get loose and scramble for 15+ yards. He can QB sneak on 4th and short. He’s this weird X factor that teams don’t know how to handle at the end of the game. I don’t think he can pass worth a damn, but if the Broncos can stay within 7 for 58 minutes, you have to be a little worried.

I’m actually enjoying watching Tebow at this point as some kind of scientific curiosity. If he’s within a TD at the end of the game, I want to watch and see what he does. It sort of becomes sandlot football, and he seems to excel at it.

JonRowe · 2011-11-28T16:08:11.000Z

Man I hate all of the religious Tebow-fanaticism, but I love a player that defies convention. He is fun to watch and wins games. I like it.