6101

I think he’s exagerrating. But Seattle’s two best franchise QBs are a undrafted free agent (Dave Krieg) and Hasselbeck, acquired via trade of course. Their history with first round QBs they actually drafted is univerally horrid. Which is ironic given how many good NFL QB’s the colleges in Washington State have produced.

6102

How would you feel about Landry Jones? He seems to be projected as a early or mid-first round guy. He was up there with Luck and Barkley before the RG3 hype wagon began but it seems he’s fallen off a bit. I agree, the Seahawks shouldn’t reach for anybody but they’re going have to take the risk and draft a QB sooner or later. QBs will always go high, there will always be a team willing to take a risk. Just look at last year’s draft which most pundits said had one of the worst QB classes in a long time and four guys went in the first 12 picks, 6 in the first 36 picks, with one Ponder being a long reach since he was projected as a mid-2nd round guy. This year’s draft class of QB is suppose to be superior in every way so Seattle should either take the gamble or try and get Flynn since if you’re holding out for that late round/undrafted savior it just isn’t very likely to happen.

6103

The thing about franchise records is that they’re superficially interesting but largely meaningless. Teams go through so many different coaches and scouts and GMs that talking about how “the Seahawks” have done in the draft is a red herring. Were any of those first round QBs drafted by the same GM? Have they even drafted a QB since Paul Allen bought the team?

Generally speaking, guys who waste first rounders on bad QBs get fired before they have a chance to waste another one. Hell, Polian got fired and he hit with his QB pick. Can this front office + Carroll identify a good QB in the draft? I don’t know, but the fact that Tom Flores tied his pony to Rick Mirer seems a little beside the point.

6104

Well Holmgren, who was considered a QB guru of sorts, drafted several QBs. The “highlight” of that list is Seneca Wallace. Who I’m sure Browns fans have a few things to say about at this point.

But while your argument is sound, that doesn’t change the fan perception of a franchise’s likliehood of succeeding this time. And some fans embrace that into the culture of the franchise, such as the north side baseball team in Chicago.

6105

I guess the hallmarks of this regime have been Whitehurst and Tavaris, so even though they haven’t been drafting them they’re still carrying on the Seattle tradition of mediocre QBs. But at the end of the day, if your front office can’t evaluate QBs well enough to draft or trade for one, you change your front office and not the way you go about things.

6106

The current regime has not drafted a QB yet. The other QB on the roster right now is an undrafted rookie free agent.

There is a certain level of impatience because the team has needed a successor to Hasselbeck for several years and yet keeps passing on opportunities to draft one. They could have taken Sanchez and drafted Curry instead. They could have taken Dalton last year and took the lineman out of Alabama instead. So there is some frustration about what seems to be a reluctance to even start the process of finding the next long-term guy.

6107

Sanchez is probably not the best example there. Just sayin’, passing on him was definitely the right call!

6108

Here is how you get yourself fired as an NFL GM.

When the lockout was settled, the Billy Devaney and the Rams front office told Laurent Robinson’s agent (LR had been a Ram for the previous 3 seasons) that they were uninterested in re-signing his client.

Robinson was signed by the Cowboys. He started 4 games. He missed 2 games with injury.

Laurent Robinson caught 11 TD passes with Dallas. The 2011 St. Louis Rams receiving corps–all of them, every single player who caught a pass included–caught 9 TD passes combined.

6109

One other thing about using the first pick on a QB: even if you sign a proven awesome game changer of a veteran player you can still get screwed. How many major free agent signings have ended with the player washing out? I’d say enough of them that there is NO way of getting a sure thing, whether rookie or established veteran.

So it still makes sense to take the risk for the QB, since you will be rolling the dice one way or another.

6110

Of course there’s no thing as a ‘sure thing’, but free agent signings generally have a higher success rate than signing first rounders because at least you know they can play in the NFL.

The major variables that determine if a player will be good are ability, work ethic, personality, and system. Jumping into the NFL puts a huge question mark on all that for a rookie.

FAs at least have proven they can play. They can still fail due to work ethic and personality or being put into a system that is inappropriate for their skills, but at least one variable is removed. FA busts like Haynesworth were fairly predictable. But that type of stuff is more on the GM/coach than it is on the player.

6111

Well Curry, who was supposed to be a “safe” pick, didn’t work out either. And Sanchez failure to meet expectations could be a coaching/situation failure as much as a personal failure on his part. There is a lot that goes into whether a QB fails or succeeds in the NFL, though he was certainly in a better situation then a lot of guys are.

If the Jets want to trade him to the Seahawks (and Pete wants him), I wouldn’t view it as the worst move they could make.

6112

So apparently the deal on this is that the Raiders told the DC and some other coaches they won’t be back, but are making them work until their contracts expire. So they haven’t left the bulding yet, which is why the Raiders are officially denying they were fired. Which is a pretty poor way to do things.

Welcome to the new era, Raiders fans. ;-)

6113

Everyone who passed on Dalton probably feels pretty dumb right now, especially the ones who drafted a QB not named Newton before him. I wish the Niners had gotten him, but not enough to give up Aldon Smith. We haven’t had a legitimate pass rush threat since Chris Doleman. I sure wish we could’ve leapfrogged Cincy and grabbed Dalton in the second, though.

6114

It may be because I’ve been watching the Jets all year (Moved from Seattle to NJ a year ago), but I think that would be a horrible mistake. I don’t think Sanchez is an NFL starting quarterback.

6115

I thought the same thing about Alex Smith, and look at him now. I think we’re seeing that for all his entertainment value, Rex Ryan is a pretty mediocre head coach. So it’s not unreasonable to think that Sanchez isn’t getting developed properly.

6116

Smith’s had one good season out of how many? Right now this season is an aberration for him. It could be he’s made some concrete improvement, more likely he’ll regress back to form next year.

As far as Rex goes: making the AFC Championship two out of your first three years as a head coach isn’t mediocre. The Jets definitely took a few steps back this year, but I think we should wait a year or two more before saying Ryan’s mediocre. Right now he’s got an impressive track record.

6117

The advantage of having seen the player play in the NFl, versus only play in college, is countered by the increased money that player is going to cost, especially a QB.

If you manage to draft a franchise QB out of college, you have a QB for years and cheap relatively speaking. If you sign one as a free agent, he’s going to cost you every last penny he’s worth to that point and he’ll only be with you for as long as you are willng to pay top dollar.

6118

That’s true now, but under the previous CBA high draft picks were paid like proven franchise players without ever proving a thing. Look at the guaranteed money given to Alex Smith, JaMarcus Russell and Sam Bradford. Thank god they fixed it, because for a while there a high draft pick was actually a bit of a negative, which it should never be.

6119

For about a 7 year stretch that wasn’t true. High round picks became dead weight on bad teams due to cap ramifications (their contracts were front loaded with massive signing bonuses and relatively low salaries).

Today a #1 draft pick has significant more value than it did three years ago because the cost is so much lower.

If you sign one as a free agent, he’s going to cost you every last penny he’s worth to that point and he’ll only be with you for as long as you are willng to pay top dollar.

Well, sure, but that’s not really relevant, because that’s all understood and a given and a high pick rookie isn’t going to be substantially cheaper. Until the most recent draft a #1 overall pick was going to cost you substantially more than even a massive FA pay day.

As an example, Matt Ryan was the #3 overall player taken in the 2008 draft.

Contract? 6 yr/66M/35M guaranteed.

Big Ben signed a contract extension a couple months before Ryan was drafted. It was the biggest contract in Steelers history.

Contract? 8yr/108M/36M guaranteed

That’s how fucked the system was.

Note that the per-year is sort of irrelevant, it’s the ‘guaranteed’ money that matters, and those guys were getting effectively the same guaranteed amount.

Successful teams sign FAs during their prime years, typically their first big contract after their rookie contracts expire, and avoid overpaying for past production.

The one exception to all this is the RB position, where drafting someone always makes more sense. I can think of only a very few starting star RBs that were allowed to walk and then went on to have monster success elsewhere. RBs fall apart quickly and they’re fungible, so overpaying for one (even if it’s a contract extension) is almost always a bad idea. You can go from setting records to washed out in 2 years as an RB.

6120

Off the top of my head…

Marshall Faulk
Edgerin James
Jerome Bettis
Ricky Watters
Garrison Hearst
Charlie Garner
Corey Dillon
Clinton Portis
Marshawn Lynch

I’d say more star RBs have gone on to have success with a second team than QBs. Although, that obviously has more to do with the fact that teams are much less willing to let a star QB get away, whereas they (the Colts especially) will look to replace an older RB rather than pay him because they can completely wash out so quickly.