1681

New York Giants
2010: 10-6, 2nd NFC East, missed playoffs

Overall: The Giants were 7th in the league in scoring and 17th defense. Most years a 10-6 record is good enough to make the playoffs, but not this year. While it’s easy to whine at the 7-9 Seahawks the story of the Giants 2010 campaign came down to one game. That game was the week 15 contest at home against the Eagles where the Giants experienced one of the worst 4th quarter collapses in modern football. A 21 point lead evaporated into a 7 point loss in under 7:30 when the Eagles scored 28 unanswered points. The Giants were still in the playoff hunt but they were emotionally broken. The 45-17 loss the following week to eventual superbowl champion Packers assured them of staying home for the playoffs.

Offense: Key losses to the offensive unit are G Rich Seubert, C Shaun O’Hara, WR Steve Smith and TE Kevin Boss. The Giants shored up all positions, save TE, with either backups on the roster or free agent signings. The TE spot hasn’t been addressed and will be TE by committee. The offense will go as far as Eli Manning can take it. He threw a career high 25 picks last year, and that number will have to come down for them to enjoy any success.

Defense: The story of training camp was Osi Umenyiora’s holdout and contract situation and eventual knee surgery. Despite that the defensive line is strong with Justin Tuck at one end and Jason Pierre-Paul at the other in Osi’s place. The real story of the defensive unit is the lack of any linebacker corp. Starter Jonathan Goff was lost for the season with a torn ACL. Converted DE to LB Mathias Kiwanuka returns from a season long injury and is still adjusting to the position. The secondary lost first round pick CB Prince Amukamara for a month due to a broken foot. The only good news on the defensive side is the heartwarming story of cancer survivor Mark Herzlich (LB) making the team. With so many question marks around the defensive unit Perry Fewell is going to have his work cut out for him. It’s tough to see this unit improving over last year’s mediocre team, but the Giants have made something out of nothing before (c.f. 2008 Superbowl).

Outlook: 9-7, 2nd Place NFC East, wildcard. I can see this team going in any direction, personally. Without being able to adequately judge the defense I don’t know what to make of the season. I think the offense will be able to score points and the tandem of Bradshaw/Jacobs means they’ll be able to control the clock to minimize the time the defense is on the field. That might be enough for this team to make the playoffs as a wildcard. If they don’t make the playoffs it could mean Tom Coughlin’s job.

1682

Re: Giants – I’m surprised you didn’t mention the loss of CB Terrell Thomas for the season, which I’ve seen protrayed in multiple places as the most devastating of the numerous injuries the Giants have suffered this preseason.

1683

Yea, I totally spaced on that one. I can now recall watching him link off the field during the Bears game and head into the locker room. He was the first of all the defensive injuries and it slipped my mind.

1684

Any prediction of 13-3 is optimistic by its very nature. But what I’m arguing about is your logic in saying why it’s optimistic. The past performance of other teams has zero bearing on the future performance of a different team. It’s really that simple.

Also, if you’d bother to have done the same analysis on Super Bowl winners, you’d find a similar (though not quite as dramatic) impact on Super Bowl winners. As such, most of the “hangover” can simply be explained away as there’s really no place to go but down when you win 12-13 games in a given year. The remaining difference is primarily due to the quality of the winning teams in terms of their overall talent and performance - they were simply better teams whereas there are some real one year wonders amongst the losers due to ludicrously easy schedules or extremely fortunate circumstances (hence some large drop-offs in wins from one year to the next).

When you look at the Steelers’ schedule, you’ll realize why it’s not that far fetched. They play a significantly easier schedule in 2011. I know it’s any given Sunday in the NFL, but at first glance their toughest tests are home against NE and the divisional series against Baltimore. They’re likely to get Indy without Manning, Jacksonville with Gabbert, KC (who has all the makings of a one year wonder), the weak NFC West, etc. Now the last time the Steelers had such a schedule, they absolutely laid an egg. As I said, there’s no telling but at this stage 12-4 or 13-3 isn’t really pie in the sky.

1685

It’s not as similar as you seem to think.

In the last 20 seasons, the Superbowl winner has, on average, lost 2.1 games more the following season. Note that’s only a bit over half the average of Superbowl losers. The Superbowl winner has managed a better record three times and an equal record three more times. That’s six years out of twenty, or 30% of the time they’ve been equal or better.

The thing is, whether you are looking at Superbowl losers or winners, is that the few teams that have improved their record (and that is what you are suggesting for this years Steelers) are either dynasties (more then one year in a row in the Superbowl) or teams that made the Superbowl with a lesser record the previous year. The only exception to that were the Colts of a few years ago.

I don’t know that we are necessarily disagreeing at the core reasons for why teams drop off in wins year to year. Calling it a curse or slump or whatever is just a catch-all way of pointing out that it impacts Superbowl losers in a variety of ways. I’m just not sure why you think that won’t impact this Steeler season, A beneficial schedule only takes you so far, and I’m not sure why you are so optimistic that most of the concerns you noted in our preview will end up going Pittsburgh’s way.

1686

The Superbowl Hangover™ needs to be backed up by some reasoning though. You can’t say it will certainly have an effect if you don’t say what the effect actually specifically is. What is the Hangover a measure of? IMO, for players who have never been to a Superbowl before, it probably changes their outlook for the following year in some way, whereas veterans of previous Superbowls are probably not as likely swayed. I would guess that that Steelers will not feel a hangover effect since they are so damn old it’s like they have a constant hangover.

1687

Last week, during the Dolphins’ finals preseason game, Bob Griese mentioned to Dick Stockton (and WTF has happened in the world that those two guys are stuck calling Dolphins preseason games?) how it felt to lose Super Bowl VI to the Cowboys. You fight through an entire season, claw your way through playoff games, and when you lose the championship, there’s this realization that sets in that you have to climb that mountain all over again just to get match what you did that year, and that it can be incredibly demoralizing.

I’ve heard this echoed from other players as well, suggesting that losing the Super Bowl is actually worse than not making it at all. You make the Super Bowl, it’s a complete circus for two weeks where everything is scrutinized and it builds to this critical mass, and when you lose, it’s a massive downer and somewhat of an embarassment. I think the losses drove Elway batty until he finally won with Shanahan. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to think some players have trouble revving themselves up for every down of the regular season once you’ve made it to a Super Bowl.

That said, I don’t think the Super Bowl hangover is any kind of foregone conclusion. I think it’s something that affects some players on an individual level, and it’s a question of how many players on your team let it affect them, and if your coaching staff can mitigate it in any way. As Griese mentioned, that Dolphins team simply resolved to come back the next year and make it back, and all they did was go 17-0 and win back to back Super Bowls. The 90s’ Bills got clobbered in one Super Bowl after another and kept coming back. I don’t think there’s any formula for it – some teams suffer Super Bowl hangovers, some don’t, and there’s no way to predict it.

1688

That implies that I think its some sort of psychological effect. It could simply be bad luck, but all I know is that history says that Superbowl teams don’t normally do as well the next year. There are probably a whole bunch of reasons that lead to that, as opposed to one specific thing that you can isolate.

Regardless, I feel comfortable in saying that the Steelers winning more games then last year is almost certainly not going to happen. We’ll know for sure in six months.

1689

The Patriots have certainly been on a bit of a Super Bowl hangover since Eli undressed them.

1690

Interesting read about training camp by a former player.

1691

Kansas City Chiefs

2010: 10-6, 1st AFC West, lost to Baltimore Ravens in round 1.

The surprise of the 2010 NFL season (except to me! and Football Outsiders), Kansas City came out of nowhere to win the AFC West thanks to the San Diego Chargers attempting to see if they could punt the ball backwards. Kansas City paired one of the best running games in the NFL with a suddenly explosive passing game to throttle bad teams (not in their division) and hang with good teams. The season came to an end when that running game got clobbered in Baltimore and Dwayne Bowe was shut out by the Ravens’ corners. Kansas City, though, is certainly a team on the rise and good things are in store for them!

Offense: Matt Cassel took a huge step toward being a real boy with a 27-7 TD-Int ratio and some excellent work out of play action. The two-headed monster of Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones became a one-headed- monster-with-albatross-around-his-neck late in the year with Thomas Jones turning into a pumpkin yet Todd Haley insisting on keeping Charles, the best back in the league last year (save perhaps Arian Foster), on the sideline so Jones could gain three yards on two carries. Dwayne Bowe became an outright superstar with 15 TD catches, but the Chiefs had no one but rookie TE Tony Moeaki to take pressure away from Bowe.

KC added WRs Steve Breaston (immediately dumped down to third string by Todd Haley) and rookie Jonathan Baldwin (broke his hand fighting Thomas Jones) to pair with Bowe (still awesome) and Moeaki (on injured reserve after Haley elected to play his starters in the fourth preseason game). They moved Dexter McCluster to running back and added Le’Ron McClain to the mix at running back, apparently because Haley hates Jamaal Charles and, by association, winning.

Defense: The best cornerback tandem you’ve never heard of is Brandon Flowers and Brandon Carr. Both faltered down the stretch, but both are excellent young players who continue to improve. Eric Berry is a budding star at safety, and fellow second-year-safety Kendrick Lewis stepped up late to be the fourth part in this fantastic young secondary. The best pass rusher you’ve never heard of is Tamba Hali, who dominated offensive lines all years despite injuries to both shoulders and a foot. Derrick Johnson (fresh out of Haley’s doghouse) stepped up to be a tackle and pick machine in midfield, but there are five other players on defense and I haven’t mentioned them for a reason. Kansas City’s front three (they run a 3-4) are too easily pushed around, with matching disappointments at defensive end (Tyson Jackson and Glenn Dorsey), and the other two linebackers are no one you’d buy a jersey of, unless you’re Andy Studebaker’s mother.

The defense did not change significantly, but they’re due a major regression, and it’s no fault of their own.

Last year, Kansas City played two teams that made the playoffs – Indianapolis (a hard-fought 19-9 loss that sparked one of the best Manning Faces I’ve ever seen from Peyton) and a 42-24 beatdown of Seattle, since someone had to make the playoffs from the NFC West. In between those games and going 2-4 against their own division, KC played San Francisco, Cleveland, Jacksonville (Todd Bouman edition), Buffalo, Arizona, St. Louis, Tennessee, and Houston. Their one loss in those games was a shootout loss to Houston in week 6.

This year, Kansas City isn’t beating up on the AFC South in a down year and the awful NFC West. They draw the NFC North and the AFC East. They play all four teams from the AFC/NFC Championship games in a four-week stretch:

Week 12 - Pittsburgh
Week 13 - at Chicago
Week 14 - at New York Jets
Week 15 - Green Bay

The week before that? A Monday night game in New England. KC also has a game in Detroit against the resurgent Lions. Their two out-of-division matchups? The aforementioned Steelers game, and another game at Indianapolis (though now that Indy has no Peyton, this may not be so horrible).

Kansas City is going from one of the easiest schedules in the league to one of the hardest. Not only that, they’re doing with a megalomaniac hellbent on destroying everything they’ve worked for – Todd Haley, head coach of the Kansas City Chiefs.

Haley forced offensive coordinator Charlie Weis out of KC, stripping him of playcalling duty so Haley could call plays in the wildcard blowout loss to Baltimore. Haley now has his fourth offensive coordinator in three seasons, though he’ll be calling the plays himself since Bill Muir has never called plays before in his life. Haley has been mercurial at best, benching Derrick Johnson for most of his first season in KC, frequently shouting at Dwayne Bowe, and screwing with the depth chart to “send messages” in such manners as signing a guy off the street and starting him three days later in a playoff game (Kevin Curtis).

Outlook: The defense should be better with another year together and an upgrade at nose tackle. The offense could be better if Jones gets lost in the basement and Charles gets 275 carries and McCluster gets 50-60 and the wide receivers take pressure away from Bowe and Moeaki’s absence doesn’t sink the passing game. But Kansas City is not repeating its first-place showing. The outlook is positive overall – this is a team on the rise, with some of the best playmakers in the NFL on both sides of the ball – but this isn’t KC’s year.

7-9, second place AFC West.

1692

Also, my predictions! Adding in wildcard predictions, too.

Divisional Winners
AFC North: Pittsburgh
NFC North: Green Bay

AFC South: Houston
NFC South: New Orleans

AFC East: New England
NFC East: Philadelphia

AFC West: San Diego
NFC West: St. Louis

AFC Wild Cards: Baltimore, New York
NFC Wild Cards: Tampa Bay, Detroit

Team with the worst record in 2011: Cincinnati Bengals
Team with the best record in 2011: Green Bay Packers

MVP: Aaron Rodgers

Over/Under on Matthew Stafford playing 10 games: Over.

Will Vick Implode like a dying star?: No, but he’ll miss 3-6 weeks, Vince Young will not such terribly, and Philly will have its 2011 Quarterback Controversy.

1693

I haven’t followed the team as closely in recent years . . . for obvious reasons, but no one has jumped on this grenade yet

WASHINGTON REDSKINS
2010 Result - 6-10 (After a 5-5 start, finished the season 1-5) Last Place, NFC East

Offense: Another year in the zone blocking running scheme and the addition of Tim Hightower as a feature back, replacing the aging Clinton Portis will be an upgrade in the running game.

In 2010 the Skins WR corps was so poor that Roydell Williams and Joey Galloway started 7 games apiece. The skins devoted draft picks and free agent signings to filling this need, but the key is . . .

QB. Rex Grossman was an unrestricted free agent with NO offers in this quarterback starved league . . . and he was signed to a backup worthy contract by the Redskins . . . and is now the starting QB. Nothing more needs be said.

Defense:

Another year in the transition from a 4-3 to a 3-4. They have an upgrade at the key NT position in Barry Cofield, as opposed to the NT by committee approach tried last year. 9 of their 15 draft picks made the opening day roster, continuing the transition into Shanahan’s type of players.

Injuries: Only starting safety Laron Landry and TE Chris Cooley are hobbled, as the Skins have survived the preseason mostly injury free. Preseason standout DL draft pick Jarvis Jenkins is out for the year, unfortunately, but the offseason has been very clean for the Skins.

Overall: The optimists point to a successful preseason and a dominant running game, and fervently hope that the Skins have will continue the path upward from their 4-12 and 6-10 seasons. The pessimists point to Rex Grossman and quietly snicker that the Skins will tank this season to grab Andrew Luck with the first pick in the draft next year. An easy schedule this year will realistically lead to another 6-10 season.

1694

Colts owner Jim Irsay tweeted that Peyton will be out for “awhile” and there are rumblings that while the radio report from yesterday that Peyton had already had another surgery was wrong, he is probably heading for one soon.

There actually are some people who think Kerry Collins can keep that team afloat, but we’ll see.

1695

ESPN is reporting that he just had a level one neck fusion surgery. I wouldn’t doubt if he is done for the season. I like Kerry Collins but he’s not going to lead the Colts anywhere. I think the Colts need to join the Suck for Luck club, imagine that, going from one can’t miss in Peyton to another in Andrew Luck.

1696

Garrard seems like a better option in Indy, while the hope Collins can keep them from going winless for a few weeks. At least Garrard has a decent deep arm, which is one of the things the Indy offense relies on.

1697

I was going to do a Skins run through, but you beat me to it. Things I’ve noticed this preseason that give hope: (1) the team plays with a lot more discipline than in past years; (2) actually seems to play more as a team, and finally seems to have an offensive line and running backs that fit Shanahan’s scheme (Hightower and Helu); and (3) drafted and signed players at positions of need. For example, they drafted Ryan Kerrigan at OLB, to rush the passer opposite Brian Orakpo, which should be a tremendous boost. And they signed people in free agency that are young, solid, and hungry (Josh Wilson, Barry Cofield, etc.), and avoided the Haynesworth type splashy signings.

Finally, the Grossman angle. Yes, it’s Rex, but he gave the Redskins more last year than McNabb did. In 13 games started, McNabb threw for 14 TDs and 15 INTs (but a lot of yards, if that means anything). In 3 starts, Grossman threw for 7 TDs and 4 INTs (and also a lot of yards; 2/3 starts he threw for over 300 yards). Yes, he’s Rex, but it really just highlights that McNabb was awful for the Skins last year, so any improvement in QB play will be helpful.

And what most people don’t know is that to a Skins fan, last year was very frustrating because the team actually was competitive; 6 of the Redskins 10 losses were by 3 points or less. It’s not as if this team was non-competitive (except for the MNF Vickapalooza game) the entire season. And that’s with fielding the worst defense in Redskins’ history, thanks to the switch to the 3-4; at least they have another year in the system, and have picked up pieces that were desperately needed to fit that system.

That all being said, the overall talent level has increased, but it still isn’t great. Especially at QB, where there’s a giant hole. This team is at least a year away, realistically, but the team will be better than last year. May have the same record to show for it, though, just because well, it’s Rex.

1698

I was going to do a Skins run through, but you beat me to it. Things I’ve noticed this preseason that give hope: (1) the team plays with a lot more discipline than in past years; (2) actually seems to play more as a team, and finally seems to have an offensive line and running backs that fit Shanahan’s scheme (Hightower and Helu); and (3) drafted and signed players at positions of need. For example, they drafted Ryan Kerrigan at OLB, to rush the passer opposite Brian Orakpo, which should be a tremendous boost. And they signed people in free agency that are young, solid, and hungry (Josh Wilson, Barry Cofield, etc.), and avoided the Haynesworth type splashy signings.

Finally, the Grossman angle. Yes, it’s Rex, but he gave the Redskins more last year than McNabb did. In 13 games started, McNabb threw for 14 TDs and 15 INTs (but a lot of yards, if that means anything). In 3 starts, Grossman threw for 7 TDs and 4 INTs (and also a lot of yards; 2/3 starts he threw for over 300 yards). Yes, he’s Rex, but it really just highlights that McNabb was awful for the Skins last year, so any improvement in QB play will be helpful.

And what most people don’t know is that to a Skins fan, last year was very frustrating because the team actually was competitive; 6 of the Redskins 10 losses were by 3 points or less. It’s not as if this team was non-competitive (except for the MNF Vickapalooza game) the entire season. And that’s with fielding the worst defense in Redskins’ history, thanks to the switch to the 3-4; at least they have another year in the system, and have picked up pieces that were desperately needed to fit that system. If there’s even reasonable improvement (say to shitty instead of historically bad), you can expect to start winning some of those closer games.

That all being said, the overall talent level has increased, but it still isn’t great. Especially at QB, where there’s a giant hole. This team is at least a year away, realistically, but the team will be better than last year. May have the same record to show for it, though, just because well, it’s Rex.

1699

I was going to do a Skins run through, but you beat me to it. Things I’ve noticed this preseason that give hope: (1) the team plays with a lot more discipline than in past years; (2) actually seems to play more as a team, and finally seems to have an offensive line and running backs that fit Shanahan’s scheme (Hightower and Helu); and (3) drafted and signed players at positions of need. For example, they drafted Ryan Kerrigan at OLB, to rush the passer opposite Brian Orakpo, which should be a tremendous boost. And they signed people in free agency that are young, solid, and hungry (Josh Wilson, Barry Cofield, etc.), and avoided the Haynesworth type splashy signings.

Finally, the Grossman angle. Yes, it’s Rex, but he gave the Redskins more last year than McNabb did. In 13 games started, McNabb threw for 14 TDs and 15 INTs (but a lot of yards, if that means anything). In 3 starts, Grossman threw for 7 TDs and 4 INTs (and also a lot of yards; 2/3 starts he threw for over 300 yards). Yes, he’s Rex, but it really just highlights that McNabb was awful for the Skins last year, so any improvement in QB play will be helpful.

And what most people don’t know is that to a Skins fan, last year was very frustrating because the team actually was competitive; 6 of the Redskins 10 losses were by 3 points or less. It’s not as if this team was non-competitive (except for the MNF Vickapalooza game) the entire season. And that’s with fielding the worst defense in Redskins’ history, thanks to the switch to the 3-4; at least they have another year in the system, and have picked up pieces that were desperately needed to fit that system. If there’s even reasonable improvement (say to shitty instead of historically bad), you can expect to start winning some of those closer games.

That all being said, the overall talent level has increased, but it still isn’t great. Especially at QB, where there’s a giant hole. This team is at least a year away, realistically, but the team will be better than last year. May have the same record to show for it, though, just because well, it’s Rex.

1700

I was going to do a Skins run through, but you beat me to it. Things I’ve noticed this preseason that give hope: (1) the team plays with a lot more discipline than in past years; (2) actually seems to play more as a team, (3) finally seems to have an offensive line and running backs that fit Shanahan’s scheme (Hightower and Helu); and (4) drafted and signed players at positions of need. For example, they drafted Ryan Kerrigan at OLB, to rush the passer opposite Brian Orakpo, which should be a tremendous boost. And they signed people in free agency that are young, solid, and hungry (Josh Wilson, Barry Cofield, etc.), and avoided the Haynesworth type splashy signings.

To the Grossman angle. Yes, it’s Rex, but he gave the Redskins more last year than McNabb did. In 13 games started, McNabb threw for 14 TDs and 15 INTs (but a lot of yards, if that means anything). In 3 starts, Grossman threw for 7 TDs and 4 INTs (and also a lot of yards; 2/3 starts he threw for over 300 yards). Yes, he’s Rex, but it really just highlights that McNabb was awful for the Skins last year, so any improvement in QB play will be helpful.

And what most non-Skins fans don’t know is that last year the team actually was competitive despite the circus going on with McNabb and Haynesworth; 6 of the Redskins 10 losses were by 3 points or less. It’s not as if this team was non-competitive (except for the MNF Vickapalooza game) the entire season. And that’s with fielding the worst defense in Redskins’ history, thanks to the switch to the 3-4; at least they have another year in the system, and have picked up pieces that were desperately needed to fit that system. If there’s even reasonable improvement (say to shitty instead of historically bad), you can expect to start winning some of those closer games.

That all being said, the overall talent level has increased, but it still isn’t great. Especially at QB, where there’s a giant hole. This team is at least a year away, realistically, but the team will be better than last year. May have the same record to show for it, though, just because well, it’s Rex.