3022

Ok, that’s funny.

3023
3024

Well, info out of the Hermit Kingdom has always been wildly unreliable, regardless of sources. It’s a place where secrecy seems to be imbibed with mothers’ milk. At this point probably safe to take a wait and see attitude. Not sure we are even at the “trust but verify” level. I think @triggercut has a point about the intel community. My thought though is that there are so many layers of people that are to some extent or other in that community that the quality of info leaked may well depend on which strata it’s coming from, the flunky strata or the competent strata.

In any event, I tend to trust the South Koreans for stuff like this, as they are the ones with their asses on the line if anything goes pear-shaped.

3025

Applause

3026

The manufacturing process still has some bugs. I mean, Trump was obviously an example that failed QA.

3027

But what makes you say that? All the reports I have seen either just say “US officials” or “Trump administration officials.” Conspicuously missing from these reports are the magic journalese words “US intelligence” or “intelligence officials.”

Here is the story, shorn of unsubstantiated content from unnamed US government sources: Kim hasn’t been seen for ten days. A single South Korean newspaper, with no other confirming reports, says he had a medical procedure on April 12th and is recovering from it. Note that this newspaper report does not say anything about him being near death.

And that’s it.

This is not the first time something like this has happened, according to the CNN story that started this ruckus:

Kim Jong Un disappeared from the public eye for more than a month in 2014, which also prompted speculation about his health. He returned sporting a cane, and days later South Korean intelligence said that he had a cyst removed from his ankle.

“It’s easy to be wrong on this one,” said John Delury, a professor of international relations at Yonsei University in Seoul.

And of course there’s a simple, obvious explanation for his disappearance from public that doesn’t involve him being a death’s door: maybe Kim and/or his doctors are freaking out about Covid-19 and have vetoed public appearances for the duration.

As someone who is old enough to remember multiple rounds of “Where’s Brezhnev?” back in the day there are lots of reasons why this story might be circulating. Maybe the US is genuinely uncertain about what happened to Kim. Maybe US intelligence is spreading the rumor to see what intelligence shakes out about possible lines of succession. Maybe the US is just yanking Kim’s chain, spreading rumors about his health and forcing him to appear in public as a counterintelligence move.

And as someone who’s lived through the last three years, there’s an additional possibility: maybe some Trump administration official heard about the South Korean newspaper story, and either mangled it in their head because they’re not very bright, or intentionally misrepresented it, and is using it to advance their own agenda, whatever that might be. Maybe Kim owes Trump a love letter, and this is Pompeo’s attempt to get him to deliver. (If this is a stupid plan? Yes. But counterargument: Trump administration.)

Disclaimer: since this is North Korea we’re talking about it’s perfectly possible that Kim will die tomorrow; or died yesterday; or has been dead for a year and an impersonator has taken his place. I don’t claim to know what’s going on in North Korea. I’m just saying there are good reasons to be extremely skeptical of stories like this.

3028

Because I can read?

Lede two paragraphs on CNN’s story:

The US is monitoring intelligence that suggests North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Un, is in grave danger after undergoing a previous surgery, according to a US official with direct knowledge.

A second source familiar with the intelligence told CNN that the US has been closely monitoring reports on Kim’s health.

Jim Sciutto, who is an excellent reporter, is clearly going out of his way not to even directly attribute his story to anyone, by using very vague terms: “The US is monitoring”; a "second source". They’re being very careful here, for obvious reasons. We don’t want to give up the source of our intel, or unmask someone else’s intel, or reveal to anyone else’s intel that we can monitor them (at this current time). The context of the lede makes it pretty clear that the US Official isn’t the person monitoring this intel, but rather is someone who knows about the monitoring of that intel second-hand. The “US Official” has direct knowledge of the US monitoring that intel, that’s the construction of that lede.

(And it could very well be that the “US Official” with direct knowledge completely jumped the gun and got over-excited about something that clearly requires more caution and circumspection. But that’s also why Sciutto got a second source on this story before going with it.)

At any rate, and as I originally said: throw some cold water on this and take it with a grain of salt. It’s at least as likely to be untrue as true. Have a good one. :)

3029

Isn’t @HumanTon right, though? Neither of those sentences attributes the quotes to US intelligence. It’s someone else ‘familiar with’ the intelligence. It’s not an intelligence source, it’s an admin source, a ‘US official’.

Doesn’t mean it is wrong, of course.

3030

(sigh) Did we all learn nothing at all from whole WMD thing?

All that blurb means is that somebody somewhere is “monitoring” a report. Whether this person is in State, the White House, some intelligence bureau or what is unspecified - and again, there’s no mention that this is coming specifically from the intelligence community. The report that is being monitored might be a garden variety, Paul-is-dead-type rumor. Or it might be a rumor a high-ranking official decided needed PR, and then reported it to intelligence agencies so he could plant a story. (Jared: “I read this on Breitbart! Mike, you gotta get your guys on this!”)

Or - who knows? - it could be true. But if it is true, reading the story makes it clear CNN has no idea whether it is or not, and they are not even remotely going out on a limb to suggest it’s true. I agree that Jim Sciutto is being super careful, but I don’t think you’re correctly decoding his journalese. He and CNN are not saying anybody anywhere has direct intelligence the Kim is dying: all they’re saying is that, according to some US officials of completely unspecified credibility, there are reports that he is. Which is no doubt 100% true. Given the nature of Kimology, though, somebody somewhere claiming Kim is dying could just mean it’s another day ending in “y.” Again, see the latter days of Brezhnev.

(Another story that is no doubt 100% true, when read carefully and evaluated from the standpoint of news outlets’ legal departments: last week’s news reports that US intelligence agencies are “investigating” reports that Covid-19 emerged from a lab in China in November. When you look at those stories, they don’t contain any assertions that the intelligence community has found any compelling evidence to support the allegation, only that it’s being “investigated.” So the assertion might, for all anyone knows, be totally bogus … but it is 100% true that it’s being investigated. That one is pretty clearly a Pompeo special.)

3031

China has dispatched a team to North Korea including medical experts to advise on North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, according to three people familiar with the situation.

The trip by the Chinese doctors and officials comes amid conflicting reports about the health of the North Korean leader. Reuters was unable to immediately determine what the trip by the Chinese team signaled in terms of Kim’s health.

A delegation led by a senior member of the Chinese Communist Party’s International Liaison Department left Beijing for North Korea on Thursday, two of the people said. The department is the main Chinese body dealing with neighbouring North Korea

3032

Maybe inject him with bleach?

3033

Might work. Who can tell? People are saying it works. What does he have to lose?

3034

A Japanese magazine, Shukan Gendai, is reporting that Kim Jong Un is currently in a vegetative state following failed cardiac surgery based on having spoken to a member of the Chinese medical team that was sent to advise on the dictator’s health.

3035

I feel bad for his loved ones.

I’m not sure if those exist.

3036

All North Koreans love Dear Leader.

3037

Be careful what you wish for. There is no guarantee that, if Kim dies or is unable to continue as leader, that the successor will be any better.

3038

Yeah, and another dear leader shift might be followed up with another round of anti-air gun executions.

Last I heard he has a sister who was/is heavily entrenched in the leadership but it would be hard to imagine a women as dear leader with how old fashion the hermit kingdom thinks.

3039

Though if, as many suspect, the Kims are really only devoted to the Kims and their own survival as top dogs in the land, it would not be beyond the realm of possibility for a woman to take charge. Whether that would fly with the people more broadly, or would mesh with the propaganda machine, I have no idea.

3040

More importantly, would a woman head of state be compatible with the core principles of Juche*?

* this is a little joke, because Juche is utter gibberish

3041

I wouldn’t say it is impossible, but old ways of thinking, specifically in east Asia, points to Confucianism, which is patriarchal in nature, firmly putting women in a inferior position to men. I suppose I could imagine the old guard scoffing at the idea of serving a women dear leader. I guess it is nothing an AA gun can’t solve though.