The North Korea Thread

I feel like every time someone says “Donald Trump wouldn’t do X” they are wrong.

It’s debatable. If you’re using “crazy” to mean drooling, wild-eyed, and unpredictably violent like a guy living under the bridge, then sure. Tyrants aren’t that. But if you mean “crazy” like a sociopath then it’s applicable.

If Seutonius say true (big if) then Caligula was legit crazy. But it probably came over him after he had attained the throne, which was itself a consequence of him being the heir apparent to Tiberius.

This, 1000x. And yes, we’re talking about rational vs. irrational. Sociopaths are rational actors, engaging in predictable behaviors as long as one takes their perspectives and disability into account.

To gain power, one needs to make promises to those who would support them, and those promises need to be kept or else they lose support. An irrational person will not reliably keep promises, and therefore will have an extremely difficult time rising to high levels of power. Cults? Sure. Countries? Not really.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/08/10/more-drama-in-trumpland-gorka-publicly-shuns-tillersons-effort-to-scale-back-north-korea-red-line/

For those worried that President Trump might get into nuclear war with North Korea, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson provided some solace Wednesday. “Americans should sleep well at night,” Tillerson said, tempering Trump’s promise to unleash “fire and fury” on North Korea if it continued to threaten the United States. Tillerson emphasized that no conflict was imminent.

But now another Trump administration voice is suggesting that we shouldn’t pay Tillerson much mind.

Sebastian Gorka appeared on BBC radio Thursday and delivered one of the most aggressive takes to date on what Trump might do — even allowing that a mere threat from North Korea could be construed as an act of war, as Trump seemed to do earlier this week. In doing so, Gorka played down Tillerson’s role in all of this.

“You should listen to the president; the idea that Secretary Tillerson is going to discuss military matters is simply nonsensical,” Gorka said in a recording shared with The Washington Post. “It is the job of Secretary Mattis, the secretary of defense, to talk about the military options, and he has done so unequivocally. He said, ‘Woe betide anyone who militarily challenges the United States,’ and that is his portfolio. That is his mandate. Secretary Tillerson is the chief diplomat of the United States, and it is his portfolio to handle those issues.”

The suggestion seems to be that Tillerson was out of his element when he provided those assurances Wednesday — that Tillerson wouldn’t even know how imminent such a conflict might be because it’s not in his purview.

https://twitter.com/nahaltoosi/status/895717267987496960

“…best orator to hold that office in generations”.

Yup.

I love the look Pence has on his face in that image.

When asked in April which policies the United States should pursue regarding North Korea, Americans diverged on their views depending in part on whether they knew where it was.

An experiment led by Kyle Dropp of Morning Consult from April 27-29, conducted at the request of The New York Times, shows that respondents who could correctly identify North Korea tended to view diplomatic and nonmilitary strategies more favorably than those who could not. These strategies included imposing further economic sanctions, increasing pressure on China to influence North Korea and conducting cyberattacks against military targets in North Korea.

They also viewed direct military engagement – in particular, sending ground troops – much less favorably than those who failed to locate North Korea.

The largest difference between the groups was the simplest: Those who could find North Korea were much more likely to disagree with the proposition that the United States should do nothing about North Korea.

So, Jesus Christ, this thing could actually happen. Trump could start a fucking nuclear war to distract from the Russian investigation.

A tweet from 2012:

Donald trump made tons of idiotic promises, and basically kept none of them.

Hell, tons of his promises directly contradicted other promises he made.

He’s kept promises to the people he needed to. That’s still a rational choice. His lies to the public? He’s gonna lose unless Killary Mk II runs for 2020.

This is an honest question I’m about to ask…
Who did he keep promises to?

Pretty much exactly what I was about to say.

He nominated Gorsuch. Some people consider that enough for the whole 4 years.

Those who gave him money and spotlights, largely. I’m not talking campaign promises. I’m not talking about paying labor. I’m talking about people who were able to help him leverage himself into bigger and better positions.

edit - to clarify, for a sociopath, once someone is of no unique value, walking all over them and breaking any promises can be rational choice. Not always, but often.

This. Although it was 99% McConnell that delivered the Supreme Court into GOP hands, Trump still gets credit for it in the eyes of the vast majority of Pro-Life and Evangelical voters.

The irony of people who say they care the most about Christian values and the lives of the innocent being Trump’s strongest supporters is so thick as to be toxic, but that’s the fucked-up world we live in.

If you want to hear the thought process laid out clearly, Bill Maher’s interview with Ralph Reed in last week’s Real Time is a good source.

But it’s silly, because literally any GOP candidate would have done that. An inanimate object would have done that.