The North Korea Thread

He is absolutely correct that is what they WOULD do. But also, Trump doesn’t always listen to those reviews and reports, and his selection process might not be:

Minimal loss of life = Best

It may just be:

Best outlook for me as a President = Best

It’s good to talk to friends/coworkers of different political beliefs. For me it encourages putting myself in their shoes or head and trying to understand the why behind their choices. Why is he okay with what Trump said? Because his past as a marine may have included serving under distinguished leaders. Perhaps he is thinking Trump has that innate ability to choose the best military action. We, quite honestly do now know. Our side assumes any choice Trump makes will be the foolhardy option.

Yeah, I agree, especially with people like him, who are very informed on world affairs and politics and he’s very smart and usually doesn’t just regurgitate talking points. But sometimes he does, and it’s kind of infuriating. The hardest for me to penetrate is when he says, do you know the Civil War was actually about being States Rights or over-taxation, as if it’s a little known fact. To counteract that kind of “knowledge” takes a lot of effort.

I’m reminded of when Jeremy Corbyn was pressed by audience members on the leaders televised Q&A whether he would ‘press the button’. It was incredible to see so many folk getting visibly fired up at the thought of someone not flipping the switch to vaporise millions. It was as if that kind of quality should be worn as a badge of honour and pride, something to aspire to.

I suppose we’ll get to see where all this tough talking gets us…

Or, that any of the choices is bad, even if it is the least foolhardy. It’s not surprising that a fair number of current and former military folks respond well to take-no-crap-from-nobody type talk, and feel that a forceful response is often the best response when threatened. At the levels they probably operated, tactical or even operational levels, such was quite possibly the case. It’s the transference of this sense of needing to always show strength and not vacillate to the level of grand strategy that gets problematic. When the goals are very limited and clearly defined–keep the enemy out of this area, destroy this capability in this grid square, knock out this facility–such thinking can make sense. When the goals are broader, like maintaining a sort of uneasy consensus between competing powers or balancing physical security with the need to interact with the global community, that type of thinking is inappropriate.

Which is why, theoretically, the top level of leadership of the military is a civilian cabinet secretary, and why normally the general officers at the apex of each service are drawn from people with very broad experiences, high levels of education, and (ideally) balanced temperaments.

But in the American political tradition, there is a strong tendency to equate the national with the personal. Hence, we get people who celebrate when the country acts just like that dude in the pickup truck who refuses to let anyone cut him off on the road, tailgates the slowpokes in his lane, and generally won’t take no crap from nobody. Everyone else in the world and on the road thinks that dude is an asshole.

I’m pretty confident in my assessment that Trump is not a military genius that knows more than any General, etc. He’s a moron that will make a moronic choice. 100% certainty.

I watched a very mediocre movie last night where reality TV had finally crossed over into assisting people with suicide and televising it. Naturally, the originally shocking idea eventually led to a point where people cheered and jeered as those attempting suicide suffered through choosing to do it or not. As appalling an idea as that was, I could totally see people numbing to the idea to the point they just didn’t care.

Similarly, we focus now on how awesome our war technology is and how well we can devastate and lay waste to opponents. It’s about winning. There isn’t nearly as much focus on losing: the lives of those affected, the devastation to a country, their infrastructure, their people and way of life. The military machine is put on a pedestal, as are our armed forces. It is much less about them defending us from being killed, and much more about them killing others we deem less than us.

As usual, you beat me to the point, sir. Well said.

This was on the issue of MAD.

If the missiles are in the air, millions of your citizens are guaranteed death and you choose to martyr yourself and your countrymen in the name of peace then just say it straight. Yes, MAD will not work if you have a pacifist in charge of the button, and yes, the other side just won and are free to launch more missiles at others, who you also chose to martyr in the name of peace.

The principle of MAD rests on never pre-emptively striking.

The moment there is a pre-emptive nuclear strike, MAD will have lost it’s power, you can no longer rely on your deterrent being an actual deterrent. All bets will be off from that point forward.

Rather famously in the context of the UK deterrent.

This matches the scenario my few remaining Trump-Train friends believe. Somewhere, somehow, “good people, reasonable people” are still behind Trump and will work hard to come up with plans that save the day.

FFS people, it’s been proven day after day after day that not only does DOTUS not have “good people” behind him, but even if he did he doesn’t fucking listen to them. And yet there was his approval rating, back up to over 40% again on the strength of his “tough talk” at the UN about North Korea. People don’t seem to understand that Trump’s tough talk is not some master plan to force NK to back down or to do something that will bring the civilized world down upon them in total mutal agreement…it’s literally him working his way up to “give me the button…I’m pushing it, it’s what the people want!”.

One story I saw implied the rise in approval ratings was do to his response to the hurricanes. Which, if what I saw was any indication, was pretty much the same as any president would do, albeit with the occasional Trumpian note of discord. So the bar must be pretty freakin’ low.

He actually stepped on state’s rights a bit, though most rational people don’t give a shit when it comes to things like hurricanes destroying cities. If Obama had done it you can bet Fox News would be running FEMA conspiracy theories and talking about how it was a breach of federalism for the POTUS to declare an emergency before it even happened and the like.

In trying to be optimistic, I guess we should be glad he is throwing his menaces to China via the NK proxy, and not directly.

No worries there. According to NK media, Kim Jung Un won the popular vote in the 2016 election.

Seismic activity detected. Whether it’s a nuke test, or just Kim executing another dissident general, is hard to tell yet.

South Korea says they don’t think it is. Let’s hope it’s not.

There are some naturally seismically active areas around those parts I understand.

Of course, it could be Godzilla, too.

There was a news article awhile back about a Chinese geologist saying the mountain North Korea uses for underground testing was unstable from it’s repeated use. According to him, there was a possibility of it collapsing and releasing radiation.