BTW, I will grant the premise that the media are trying to make something out of what is likely to be a big nothingburger tonight. It’s almost a 99% probability that Ossoff will be the Democrat who proceeds to the runoff, and about an 80% probability that he won’t get the majority vote needed to avoid a runoff…so that’s locked in on that side.
Basically the only mild intrigue is which Republican candidate gets the highest vote total.
That being said, if it’s Handel or Gray, it’s game on in the 6th. All the numbers crunched via demographics suggest that it’s a 45-55 chance for Ossoff at worst, and a 50-50 chance for him at the most likely outcome in June.
But I think you missed the point of the statement, contained in the rest of the sentence you pulled that phrase out of. The point was not that Ossoff was going to lose the preliminary election, but that winning it likely doesn’t matter at all, since all the GOP support is going to consolidate around whoever is left.
Democratic support has essentially already consolidated behind Ossoff, while the republican support remains split between Moody, Handel, Hill, and Gray. But once that split is eliminated, you’re left in a situation where Ossoff has a very uphill battle.
I feel like the story is being over dramatized for the sake of TV ratings, and at the end of the day it’s going to be demoralizing for folks who become overly invested in this idea that Ossoff is going to pull off some grand victory.
Edit:
To be clear, if he pulls out a victory in the runoff, that’s great. And if it happens, then it’s a big indicator of some shit going down. But I am wary of counting the chickens before they are hatched here.
As with Kansas, a close call will be an interesting sign of the current electoral climate. Historically, we get less turnout with special elections than even midterms. However, the attention being spent by the media on Georgia is likely to push that up and be more representative of the electorate and not just be the voices of the overly invested.
That said, yeah, it’s an uphill battle for Ossoff. While I wouldn’t be stunned if he won, I certainly wouldn’t expect it.
Maybe I’m reading too much into this, but to me it seems important for Democrats to field competitive candidates in otherwise solidly red districts and it might (emphasis on might) result in more moderate Republican candidates.
A moderate democrat could have a shot at a place like georgia, if the GOP put up some super pro trump guy.
Romney won that district by a ton, and the guy giving up his seat also won it by a ton (like 20 points? I forget.) but Trump only beat clinton by around 1 percent there.
There are fairly wealthy, well educated republicans in that location… and they didn’t really go in for Trump’s special brand of bullshit, based on the election results.
In places like this, especially if the GOP puts up super Trumpy folks, I think the Dems could win with candidates like Jason Kander.
I think the consolidation on the Dem side has already taken place. I think all the rest of the dems running are polling at less than 1% at this point.
I’m with Harry Enten, Ossoff takes 45% tonight, and then it’s a 50/50 shot in the runoff in June.
One thing to consider on the early D consolidation on Ossoff: for 3+ weeks, all enemy fire has been aimed at him, while whomever his GOP challenger in a runoff will be has been able to duck a lot. After tonight, that Republican challenger gets the oppo treatment and negative ads aimed solely at them.
Ossoff having some very good election day returns early on in DeKalb county. Seems like 45 will be a given, but it could be a few ticks higher than that.
This is a fantastic point. The ED vote so favorable for Ossoff in DeKalb is probably not going to be representative. DeKalb only had that one early vote location, so there was less cannibalizing of ED vote in early voting for Democrats.
Also definitely looks like Karen Handel will be Ossoff’s opponent in the runoff. If he pulls 47+ here today, he’s got a real solid chance to flip the seat.
