You’re missing my supposition that Thraeg is good for that case. If so, the evil people on the team were Ott and rowe.
As moderator you really shouldn’t math I don’t think. We’ll all do our own sketchy math where 40% of us are lying through math.
The sketchy math and flying accusations are why I like this game. I’m 37% sure I’ve figured things out, and it’s @Snebmi who failed the mission.
Why is your list just the people who might be evil?
You could, for instance, give it to me since I have not literally just been called evil.
I’ll save it for the writeup. I’ve been doing a lot of it, based on you guys saying “What’s the chance so and so is evil and so and so is evil and so and so is good?” because I’m curious to see how high the chance actually is. I won’t post it, though.
If you’re Good then I’d give it to Dave, since we’d then have three Goods in a row. All I know for sure is that both Thraeg and Ot are Evil, due to facts that unfortunately only I am privy to.
I mean, it’s right there in my name! If you rearrange the letters:
Snebmi → is evil
To elaborate:
You are saying 2 of Ot/Thraeg and Rowe/Dave are good and 2 are evil. So you’re 50/50 on a good call there.
Assuming you are good or at least for the math pretending to be. The remaining 5 players are 3/2. So you’d have the best odds at giving it to good by going for the not-just-called-evil players.
Yikes! Plus, you were the messenger. Always blame the messenger.
I mean, it all depends on whether the speaker is good or evil. And we’re all going to pitch math that is biased as if we are good.
Which is why I would give it to you over Dave. Because though I lean that direction, if I am wrong then it gives two evils in a row.
I could give it to any of the uninvolved people.
But that’s usually a bad idea.
It’s a bad idea to give it to the people who are more likely to be good because they haven’t actually failed a mission. Can’t find a mistake in that logic.
If Dave and I were both Evil then I would have included him on my team. He would have known I’d cast a fail vote as the new member, Thraeg would’ve checked me/called me out, and Dave would sneak in on the next Good team to fail that, giving Evil a 2-1 advantage.
Why in the hell would he know that?
Dave obviously voted Success on the first mission and there was an Eye card out there, in the hands of Good in that scenario. Seems most likely that Thraeg would use the Eye on me, as the new person added to the team that just passed the mission.
How did the supposed evil duo know which one failed the second mission?
Since you’re an expert in made up things we should assume?
This just ticked my inner needle on you more towards evil.
Honestly I don’t know.
Not sure I understand why but just explaining the most likely scenario, IF we were both evil. Giving myself up to get a 2-1 advantage would have been the perfect play.
That does seem logical. Unfortunately the same logic also works with the team you actually chose if you want to get Ot more trusted. Right up until Craig draws the Overheard Conversation and gives it to me, anyway.
Edit: oh, and I’m pretty sure you wouldn’t have got a team with Dave in it to pass the vote.