The Resistance: Avalon + The Plot Thickens Forum Game #??

Alright, sounds like we’re unanimous.

I’ll send my trained merlin to drop a coconut on @CraigM’s head.

Is that your final choice? If so, please bold it. Or just confirm you’re sure.

Yes that’s my final choice.

My apologies for being late, I just saw this as I was spending time with my sister at the beach and did not have access to my phone. I will post results momentarily.

CraigM was sitting under a tree, content with the results of the quests. He was so proud of his fellow knights.

The sun emerged from under a cloud and only then did Craig see the shadow of the figure in the tree above him. He shot up from his seat and looked up. But not in time to see the coconut.

**You have killed Merlin.

Evil wins!**

Dave Perkins: Percival
rowe33: Loyal Servant
CraigM: Merlin
CF_Kane: Loyal Servant
CaseyRobinson: Morgana
Lantz: Oberon
scottagibson: Loyal Servant
rho21: Loyal Servant
Otthegreat: Mordred
Thraeg: Assassin

As soon as I have access to my laptop I will post my notes.

Huh, I had Scott pegged as Percival.

I did not see that assassination coming!

Yay! Well done, fellow evildoers.

Thanks for running the game @Snebmi

Thanks for playing!

Well damn, good stabbing, bad guys. That was a fun one though, thanks for running it!

Thanks @Snebmi for a great game experience.

Also, too, curses! Evil wins.

These are mostly just my thoughts throughout the game. Because of the first card play I was sort of rooting for Good, so that shows, but know that I didn’t do anything to help them.

1a: Card Distribution

Unless he had randomly hit Mordred, at first glance this couldn’t have gone better for Dave. First of all, he hit an Evil, and second, this Evil Opened Up to Mordred on a fifty-fifty guess gone wrong! CraigM should take note of this.

And Mordred confirmed the Assassin is Resistance! This should go great for CraigM! He now knows all Evil! Except…now everyone’s going to think Thraeg and Ot are Resistance, or at least Thraeg if not Ot. So…it would’ve gone better if it came from Morgana. Except maybe not even then! So, good for Merlin, he knows all Evil, bad for everyone else.

At this point I (obviously) don’t know how this game will end, and I also don’t know how this card play will factor into that.

I know Dave has nothing to work off of, but he gave THREE CARDS to the Assassin! Including No Confidence and Keeping a Close Eye on You! Those are important! And he brought both the Assassin and Mordred on a mission with him, and Merlin knows Mordred now! That last part is okay, because he could be trying to get a double fail if he was Merlin? But it’s the first mission! Dave has a reputation for questionable card play as Evil, and being Evil, and now all the good guys think he’s suspicious. Although, the first Avalon game, Nikolaj was suspicious until he picked a perfect team. So Percival can win being a bit suspicious, he just has to be good enough to be given a chance.

I talked with CraigM a bit (although obviously I didn’t point any details out until he brought them up first, I didn’t even point out his mistake in calling Mordred Morgana), and he caught on and now knows every evil player (Ott, Thraeg, CaseyRobinson, and Lantz). Evil’s only chance is going to be the assassination now, most likely, or just sheer number of cards in Evil hands. Or Thraeg. He’s all but confirmed Good. He’s new, so his questionable card play is not so questionable. I hope Craig can finds something to stick to him. But I’ve seen Craig as Merlin before, the first Avalon game without plot cards – of course, he had a solid Percival that time (Nikolaj) who got lucky on his first team pick, picked up on all of Craig’s clues and knew the three baddies, and managed to isolate Mordred and not pick him, and in the end, not only did Nikolaj help get three successes, he took the dagger. Dave…unless he gets everything right from here, he won’t be taking the dagger. So hopefully a Loyal Servant can help?

I’m mainly keeping these notes because I read Staff Sergeant’s notes for the second vanilla with Plot Cards game, and they were entertaining. So maybe someone thinks these are interesting?

Team 1a:

Thraeg used some logic not to No Confidence the team – despite six yes votes – but I’d still be suspicious. Or maybe I’m only noticing that because I know he’s Evil.

Craig has accurately guessed (to me) which baddie is which role. He truly is Merlin.

Ot has voted Success on the mission. I think he just wants to avoid double-fail, because if it does double-fail, he’s a spy no matter what. (If Thraeg is a spy, he’s a spy, and while the fails could be Dave and Thraeg, he’d still be a spy).

The mission was a success! Dave had to, Thraeg did, and Ot did.

2a: Card Distribution

Rowe has the cards now, and he has an Overheard Conversation. I really want him to give it to rho and for rho to check Ot, and for rho to find out he’s Evil. But that won’t happen, I think. So my second choice is Thraeg checking Dave and revealing him as Evil, telling Dave both he and Ot are Evil, and that would make Dave think about the fact that his team had two Evils, and that one of his Merlins voted against it, Craig, and that Casey is the third evil, and Lantz hasn’t really done anything suspicious but the Evil players don’t know about Lantz so all Craig would have to do is drop one more hint about Lantz.

But that probably won’t happen either. What I’m concerned about for Good is that Dave’s opening move is so bizarre if he’s Merlin – not that he gave Thraeg Open Up, but that he gave him No Confidence and Keeping an Eye. If he was Merlin, you’d assume Thraeg would be Good. So Merlin (CraigM) needs a new Percy, one who isn’t even Percy at all!

I’m thinking Rowe or Scott might fill those shoes. Dave can relay Craig’s message, but Good is going to need someone to look like the root of Dave’s suspicions. Otherwise, they’ll probably kill Craig. So if Rowe gives the card to rho, he might be able to pass as Percy. Lantz is being logical, and it would be funny if he got assassinated, but that won’t happen because there’s sort of a house rule against claiming Oberon here.

I wonder what Lantz thinks of all of this. How soon he’ll realize that there were two evils on a team he just voted down.

Rho just asked Rowe for the card. Please, please give Rho the card, Rowe…for the sake of Good! I know both are just Loyal Servants but still…

I think at this point Craig just needs to stay as far out of the spotlight as possible. Give Dave a few hints, hide, and while Dave probably won’t look like Merlin, hopefully Craig won’t either.

Damn, Rowe just gave Overheard Conversation to Thraeg. Now, he might be less of a Merlin candidate.

Weirdly enough, if anyone is going to win the game for Evil, it’s Lantz. He’s pretty deep undercover.

Thraeg revealed Dave as Evil! I am so happy (I’m happy because this makes the game more interesting)!

This is the first time I’ve ever seen Evil falsely identify a Good knight. Well, Dave is in for a surprise—and he’ll probably flock to CraigM, the Merlin who voted against Team Mordred-Assassin-Percival. Funny, Team 1a had no Loyal Servants!

Rowe has Taking Responsibility. Good. If he does what I secretly want him to do, he’ll give it to Dave to take No Confidence or the Eye from Thraeg.

Damn, Rowe believes Thraeg. I guess it is more likely and Thraeg is new, so what would usually be called out as really suspicious behavior is okay. I’m reconsidering my position to root for Good (although, of course, me rooting for someone isn’t taking any actions that help them).

Good is getting really lucky with these card draws though – rounds one through four they get an identity reveal card.

Dave has no chance of being seen as Merlin. Except that he’s always Merlin. Or a spy. Spy-Merlin.

Craig just stuck his neck out for Dave! Dave had better figure out that Craig is Merlin. Dave needs to relay information like that, Craig has everything except Percival’s identity and which of the baddies is Morgana, the Assassin, and Oberon (although he guessed with near certainty Lantz is Oberon, and he guessed Casey’s Morgana and Thraeg is the Assassin). Mostly Percy’s identity is the thing he doesn’t know. But in old games, he picked up on Nikolaj’s Percival-ness by 2b so I’m hoping eventually he picks up.

If – and that if is a probably not – Rowe gives Dave Take Responsibility, Dave had better take No Confidence, as Merlin would have little need for Keeping an Eye.

Team 2A:

Craig voted yes, which makes sense on the basis of keeping himself hidden. Plus, he needed the mission to go through and it wouldn’t have if he’d voted no. The problem is that Dave is Percival and will likely flock to CaseyRobinson, who voted no.

Thraeg and Ot managed to cast only one fail vote without obvious coordination. And Thraeg…man, Thraeg is blaming people left and right. He now says Rowe is a spy, which ruined my hopeful CraigM play of having Rowe check Dave’s card.

Anyone who can 100% confirm Thraeg as Evil is tainted – Dave, who’s next to him, has been called Evil by Thraeg, Rowe, who’s next to Dave, has been called Evil by Thraeg, and Ot has already confirmed him. Even if they gave rho21 Overheard Conversation to overhear Ot, that would cast doubt on Thraeg but not confirm him. Damn, this is looking bleak for anyone who wants 100% confirmation. If this was intentional, Thraeg, well played. You’re a genius. My hat off to you, sir.

And he asked CraigM to confirm rowe himself! I suspect that is master manipulation, pretending not to know the rules. Unfortunately for him, Craig is Merlin.

If I was Craig, I’d have CF_Kane check me. When CF_Kane says I’m Loyal, I’d take me, rowe, CF_Kane, and Dave with the Spotlight on Kane. Then, if the mission succeeds, I can be pretty positive Thraeg’s evil, and so is Ot. If it fails (which it wouldn’t) I’d know one of Kane and Dave is 100% Evil and I’d know Thraeg is probably Good. In the Spotlight won’t be useless after all! If Craig takes the risk and does what I ask. And if it isn’t vetoed.

Why it is better (for me, if I was playing a Loyal Servant) to bring Dave and Rowe instead of Thraeg and Ot: if it fails, it might be Ot, and Ot failing it tells us nothing about Thraeg. But , if it fails with Dave and Rowe, I know Thraeg was telling the truth about one, so maybe Thraeg was telling the truth about both, so I can concur Thraeg is probably Good and Dave and Rowe are probably Evil, so I can build a team with Thraeg, me, maybe Ot, and two other people.

Well, he gave it to rho instead, who now says Ot is Evil. Suddenly, rowe and Dave’s side is more plausible. If I were Craig now, I’d take everyone Thraeg and Ot have called Evil and me, Spotlight on rho21, maybe?

Wait. There’s a note – I’m hoping someone catches it – that maybe only I know? Craig could catch it if he cared, I think, but he might not think about it?

Thraeg said, “it was 50-50.” If he’s not a known Evil, and he didn’t have an Evil compatriot to reveal to, where did the 50-50 come from? I know it was 50-50 between Mordred and Morgana – Ot and Casey – and he chose wrong, but…

I almost feel bad for Craig right now – this is a hard choice, and if he gives it away he’ll get stabbed. But Craig unknowingly supported a team that had two players Dave knows to be Evil and Dave told me he’s leaning towards Casey as Merlin and Craig as Morgana. I can’t be totally sure he wasn’t being sarcastic, but honestly, if I was Percival, I might feel that way too.

Intermission for math:

The chance 6 blind goods cast a yes vote by random (ie, the chance of flipping a coin six times and never landing on tails): 1.5625%

The chance of 4 goods in a row (6/10 * 5/9 * 4/8 * 3/7): 7.14%

At the start of the game, chance both Ot and Thraeg are Evil (4/10 * 3/9): 13.33333333%

Chance Dave is Oberon: 10% (obviously)

Chance Dave is Evil and Thraeg is Good (4/10 * 6/9): 26.66666667%

Chance two known Evils (without coordinating) randomly fail a mission with one fail (that is, one votes success and the other votes fail) (flipping a coin twice and one being heads and the other being tails, regardless of which was which): 50%

Interestingly enough, on the Strong Leader note, Dave is the prime candidate because he is the first in a chain of four Good players in a row, but everyone thinks he’s evil, so…

Besides, if Dave got Strong Leader and used it for mission four, he could Establish Confidence with a player like rho or Craig. Then, Thraeg and Ot would be known as Evil to everyone and Dave would be known Good. But even Craig (who knows almost everything) doesn’t know that will happen).

Rowe and Scott are blaming each other hard, “good with attitude” takes the reigns again.

I now think the best play for CraigM is to pick rho, one of Dave/Rowe, and Lantz, with the spotlight on Lantz. Then, if it passes, CF_Kane can just add himself and Good wins. But if Lantz fails it, CF_Kane can run previous team minus Lantz plus him and maybe the other of Dave/Rowe? It’s riskier if Lantz fails it, though.

People are talking about Thraeg’s Open Up, and I’m glad. Remember when Dave Opened Up to Josemas instead of Thongsy, and then Established Confidence with Brian, and everyone 100% knew Dave was a spy?

It got rejected. CraigM stuck his neck out and if Good succeeds three quests, this will be remembered, and it didn’t even matter. At least Percival (Dave) voted yes, and Dave will see that one of his Merlins voted the same way as two people he knows to be Evil.

2.2K words so far. I’m doing good!

At this point, it’s going to be really anticlimactic if Craig gets stabbed.

Rowe says, and I quote, “I think Evil is quite possibly Thraeg, Ot, Lantz, and Casey.”

That is word for word the Evil. I mean, Rowe already knows two for sure (Thraeg and Ot) because Thraeg called him Evil and Ot called Thraeg Good, but Lantz and Casey have been doing a good job hiding. That reminds me of my brother, who will just claim Merlin and name the bad guys and he’s usually at least partially right, and a lot of the time he’s spot on, and we assassinate him, thinking “he isn’t hiding, he’s actually Merlin” and then he isn’t. Then, at least we know we stabbed him.

CaseyRobinson (actually a while ago, I just forgot about it) told me something along the lines of “stab Craig if Dave is Oberon.”

A few things make me not lose hope for Craig: first, Casey is not the Assassin (he’s Morgana), and second, Dave is Percival (not that Craig knows) and (more importantly) not Oberon. I think I see where Casey is coming from: Craig is avoiding the whole Ot-Thraeg-Dave chain. Casey knows Ot and Thraeg are Evil, so Craig (if he was Merlin) had only one straightforward choice if Dave was Good: Back up Dave. But Dave is Good and Craig isn’t that straightforward. Any Good knight knows there’s likely two Evils in that group.

3c:

Craig: “I will gut scott if he gives all is cards to Thraeg”

Craig: “If this team gets passed I will NC it”

Rowe: “Evil is Thraeg and Ott and Casey with Kane* as Oberon”

*Used to be Lantz, which is correct

Okay, I noticed something that I’m pretty sure nobody else can know for sure, so I’m writing it down here. Rowe called CaseyRobinson out on not wanting CraigM on the team (maybe Casey’s “Craig is Merlin if Dave is Oberon” is making him avoid Craig).

4A:

Mission 3 double failed. Good has logic-ed their way out. Evil called the game. I don’t really have any thoughts other than that Good has airtight logic and I wouldn’t be able to lie my way out if I was Evil. Maybe say I lied about everything, I’m Merlin, your logic is flawed, I changed my mind I’m actually Lancelot (used to be Evil Lancelot now Good).

They’re talking about stabbing Craig. Good worked so hard…it would be so anticlimactic to have Craig stabbed for nothing. I mean, his suggestions barely helped Good…they didn’t end up needing them.

If this happens, my money is on Dave being at least partially responsible. Dave didn’t really say anything.

Well, Lantz just suggested Dave as Merlin. But…but…but…

Lantz didn’t know who was Evil. Dave gave all three first cards to Thraeg. But that might’ve been a knee-jerk “They said this guy was Good everyone will think he’s Good holy shit I’m screwed, he’s confirmed Good” reaction.

End of Game:

The game is over. Craig got stabbed. I said it was anticlimactic if he did, but I realized something about Avalon. Resistance is about succeeding or failing three missions. Avalon is about whether or not Merlin will get exposed while succeeding them. I’ve only seen a handful of games where three missions were failed.

I don’t know if other people want to, but if people want to play another game I’d be happy to join in as a player if someone else wants to moderate.

Good stabbing Evil!

And thanks for running it and sharing your notes @Snebmi!

Thanks for playing!

I don’t know if we have a spreadsheet someplace, but a few years back we played a ton of games off site. I think Evil wins a decent amount straight up. Merlin has got to be so careful when people can reread the game. I know at least one of us (not me) will decline to be notified of who evil is to start the game if they are Merlin and keep it as a break-glass type scenario. In fact, we started changing some cards to try and give good a little better chance. If the confidence cards don’t come out early good is hurting bad.

Craig is somewhat known for playing Merlin-ish all the time to throw people off so it’s not uncommon to get a few vague predictive comments out of him and a few will probably hit home because he’s good at making educated guesses at the roles. Honestly it kept me searching long and hard for other suspects because he’s easy to incorrectly stab.

Even knowing the roles now, the opening of this game breaks my brain. I love that this game can continue to be bonkers w/ such relatively simple rules.

I am happy to moderate the next game but I also think @scottagibson offered so I will defer to him if he’d rather.

Thanks @Snebmi for running and everyone for playing. Good job evil players!

Thanks for the extensive write-up!

I had a feeling Dave was evil early on so having Thraeg fail that mission and then accuse me really threw me off.

Also, how did Thraeg & Ot manage to fail mission 2 with just one fail? Was there an assumption made because Thraeg held the eye that led you to somehow work it out? Or just blind luck?

Blind luck, I think. My guess is Ot assumed that Thraeg (as a newbie) would fail, or because Thraeg had been more active? I can’t speak for them though.

It was Thraeg who failed it, by the way.