20220

This is the sort of thing that made me put you on ignore before.

20221

I think that’s called empathy :)

20222

It’s hard to find good sources on this war. My favorite is Lt General Ben Hodges, whose previous posts include Commanding General, US Army Europe. He’s very optimistic about the likely outcomes, and he is not one to mince words. Here is his latest:

20223

In the last 24 hours Russia has lost about half of the territory they held north of the Dnipro:

This looks less like a planned phased withdrawal and more like a rout.

20224

Occam’s razor says that Russia would spend real money trying to influence QT3? Seriously?

20225
20226

Who says social media is increasing polarization and division? Even dog lovers have to like that one.

20227

14 minute segment on the ongoing liberation of Kherson. I found the interviews that start around the 4:09 mark to be pretty moving. Especially regarding everyday bravery like Yulia, a woman who stayed behind in her occupied village to lead it during occupation after the mayor fled.

It does make me dread what we’ll learn about the Kherson city occupation once it’s back under Ukraine’s control.

20228

Absolutely sickening:

20229
20230

The Russians have dropped the bridge:

20231

I disagree. To me, what it looks like is that all the reports over the last few weeks of Russians abandoning Kherson have been accurate and not a ruse.

No doubt they left a significant number of recent conscripts and other low-value troops to ‘hold the line’, but I think any units they wanted tout of Kherson were over the river before that little play that Shoigu and cast was broadcast.

20232

I agree with you now after seeing more info this morning. The Russians seemed to have gotten across with at least most of their troops, not sure about the equipment. I think prior reports of great losses were exaggerated.

The Russian MOD has announced that their withdrawal is complete:

Regardless of how it ended, it is still a great victory for Ukraine.

20233

It’s certainly good and necessary news. I’m a little concerned about what this may mean for allied support for the Ukrainian side though. I know there’s been a lot of chatter about how the ‘Ukrainians need to show a victory’ and such, but I’m really worried that a number of allies are going to start saying, ‘okay, you’ve taken back a lot. Maybe that’s as far as you go.’

20234

I think the incentive to go back to the February situation is still strong, Russia gets taught a full “all this for naught” lesson and everything is back to a situation that many perceived as stable.
When it’s just Crimea and the Donbass in Russian hands I guess the pressure to settle will come hard.

20235

That doesn’t mean Ukraine can’t shut the water off to Crimea, drop what’s left of the bridge and sink Russia’s ferry first…

20236

If I’m Ukraine, I keep the water on (at least initially) and say, “see, we aren’t terrorists like Russia.”

20237

I sure hope that’s not true, at least not for the majority of nations supporting Ukraine. That feels like it’s just asking for this conflict to erupt into war again in the future.

20238

It’s a very posh razor, you see, lots of Saudi oil money behind it!

Indeed. The only long-term security for Ukraine worth a damn is NATO membership or regime change in Russia, or both.

20239

Even if Ukraine can’t get back to Feb borders I think realistically they’ll need take back enough to break the land bridge between Crimea and the Donbas to make it feel like a proper win.

That’ll mean recovering most of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts as a bare minimum.