20240

I think Ukraine is a really long way off from settling for post-2014 borders, let alone anything post February '22.

Of course, momentum can turn in a hurry, but right now Russia shows no signs of fixing their issues and Ukraine shows no signs of breaking. They certainly believe they can beat the Russians back, and that’s pretty huge.

20241

The challenge is that it’s not about what Ukraine wants or even feels it can accomplish - it’s about how far Ukraine’s patrons are willing to back them. And unfortunately, I think there are some pretty serious cracks that are starting to show that is going to constrain them.

To me though, the real question is what happens now. A lot of Ukraine’s might was directed at Kherson. With that thrust over, I assume they leave a sufficient defense there, then pivot the rest east. No reason to attempt a river crossing when you already hold ground on the other side further upstream.

20242

If you like videos of people celebrating their liberation, then today is your day.

Lots of these popping up.

20243

How weird, didn’t these people just vote 90-something percent to become part of Russia? Something seems off here! ;)

20244

Crisis actors!

20245

Yeah, the real question is “what comes next?” With reserves coming up, even if poorly trained, if they are duh in and supported adequately by artillery, it is going to be hard to pry the Russians out. The UA does not have armor, artillery or air superiority which is pretty important to overcome dug in troops. I am worried about a stalemate setting in.

20246

I think they’ve shown a few times now that they have enough of these things to concentrate them in one or two areas and break through. I know the Russians are digging trenches and the like, but I’ve only ever seen single lines of trenches with concrete barriers in front and behind. That’s hardly an impregnable line especially when it’s questionable how long the Russian troops that started out with low morale and training will hold out in a miserably cold trench while getting shelled over and over.

20247

Can I inquire as to where you’re seeing these cracks?

20248

Problems:

20249

Anyone with a subscription want to share some of the details? Is he really calling for some kind of peace with what they’ve achieved or is it just a sensational headline?

20250

Perhaps, but if the war stops, then UA can join NATO, and the math is completely different going forward. Not sure what that would mean for Crimea and Donbas, though.

20251

At Kharkiv the UA found a very lightly defended portion of the line and broke through. At Kherson, they exploited the Russians’ poor position across a river and hit their logistics until they could no longer hold.

At no time have they breeched a heavily fortified line and poured through. Perhaps they can do it, perhaps not. As for photos, you are assuming that what you see is the entire position, which might be true - or it might be one portion of a deeply layered position.

All I know it is not going to be easy if the forces are roughly equal. That is a formula for attrition and stalemate. I hope I am wrong.

20252

I never said it was easy! But they’ve shown several times an ability to be patient and find the opportunities. The Ukrainian military command has been extremely deliberate and pretty conservative in where/when they’ve chosen to attack and made sure the odds were strongly in their favor before doing so. So no, I don’t expect them to haphazardly charge headlong into strong trench lines. But when weak points arrive somewhere along the front I expect them to be ready. Again, I’m basing that on what they’ve shown so far. That could change, but still not seeing signs of that yet. Also they may not attempt any real offensives until the mud is dry in the late spring. Probably depends on Russians being able to supply a large force in trenches over the course of the long winter.

As soon as they make peace and join NATO whatever territory they don’t hold at that time is gone forever.

20253

Should be a gift link:

20254

“Cement their gains” seems an odd way of putting it. Wouldn’t “cutting their losses” be more accurate, in terms of what he’s asking them to do?

20255

The joy of liberation will soon turn to the sorrow of the stories of occupation:

20256

Thank you! And yeah, it sounds like Milley is all aboard the make peace now/soon train. That’s unfortunate, but I guess it’s also good to have different viewpoints in the room.

20257

I hope foreign aid is chucking in a few hundred thousand pairs of heavy duty snow gloves and warm boots, scarves, etc for the Ukrainian army. A cold winter, paired with hitting supply lines and grift reducing rations to the front, could do more good work reducing the Russian line than bombs will. Sitting in a trench at -10C for a few months won’t be fun. Even worse if you work up a sweat and then have to sit in it as your clothing freezes solid (as someone who used to play outdoor hockey in Canada can attest.)

20258

Milley doesn’t make US foreign policy decisions, though. He advises about them, and he carries them out. Sounds like — so far — nobody is taking his advice.

20259

Unless NATO makes a special case and gets everyone to agree Ukraine would still be blocked from joining due to territorial issues, and I doubt someone like Orban would allow it.