20260

That makes me wonder what Milley is seeing in the intel picture.

20261

Pretty sure I’ve seen reports of lots of winter clothing supply to Ukraine since summer.

20262

I doubt Milley is seeing anything that Jake Sullivan and others aren’t seeing. He’s just got a different take on it.

20263

They are. The UK just sent a bunch of heated tents as well, IIRC.

20264

Yep

20265

Here’s another good one.

20266

It is indeed curious: prior to February, Ukraine was largely just a country on the map, a former Soviet satellite.

Now barring something horrific, I will always consider them my brothers and sisters. I go out of my way to, for example, look for Ukrainian goods to purchase (a cane and a window valance, most recently). Just a gesture in the larger scheme of things, but I hope it helps.

20267

I have read that due to Western aid, the UA should be well equipped for winter. The new mobiks, well, not so much.

20268

Groceries on the way:

20269

I wasn’t thinking about the difference of opinions in the admin, just wondering what he is seeing that has him saying now is the time to go for a settlement.

It could just be that with the natural barrier of the river, it might now be a really hard slog down the eastern side, or are they just pretty much spent now?

20270

Yeah, would like to know why he thinks what he thinks

20271

Any stalemate where the Russian front line is still less than 20km from the major city you have just liberated, is just a winter season full of Russian artillery practice on your urban civilians.

20272

I suspect the purely military view might well see merit in freezing things the way they are. Especially if your viewpoint is from that of a military that for the past half-century has considered any casualties too many casualties. War is political though, among other things, and Ukraine’s political needs are not dictated by what is most expedient from a purely tactical perspective. And Kyiv is under no illusions about the cost of things, and seems so far willing to pay those costs.

It does surprise me a bit that the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs–a politically-charged position among the military leadership if there ever was one–doesn’t seem to have a deep understanding of the political situation on the ground. Or maybe he does, and doesn’t like Ukraine much, or something. Who knows?

20273

I find it hard to believe he just muse his thoughts out loud without blessing from his bosses.

20274

Why assume the worst about his position on negotiations and assume that it is due to some ignorance on his part? Perhaps it is an honestly held position based upon his assessment of the likely future battlefield results, or the risks involved with future operations.

Though I think Ukraine should continue, I could also make a reasonable argument for entering into negotiations.

20275

Russia is setting up defenses along one line. Outflank and surround. Do like the Ardennes offensive to deliver a crippling blow to the forces concentrated looking across the river at Kherson.

20276

That is stupid beyond belief. Real reason Russia wants those areas so bad? Untapped Gas and oil fields. All of Europe and the US should be eyeing that as a way to take the pressure off their reliance on Russia, and encourage Ukraine to accept nothing less than taking Donbass and Luhansk back in full.

Crimea… that’s the bargaining chip. Peace to cement the liberation of those 2 regions, and we won’t invade Crimea. Then join NATO ASAP.

20277

I’m not. My first comment was that in fact it’s a narrow focus on military issues that is guiding his comments. The rest are alternative explanations. And finally, I note that I do not in fact know.

It is not unreasonable however to question the judgment of our senior military officers after the previous few years where it’s been shown that at least a few of them have gone off the deep end. Not suggesting that’s the case at all here, but I guess my trust has been deeply abused by the military establishment over the past decade or so.

20278

If I am Ukraine, after some refitting and regrouping, I mass my western artillery, HIMARS, and Air Force, blast a way through the Russian lines and strike south from Zaporizhzhia all the way to the Black Sea, splitting the Russian front and outflanking their lines in Donestsk (north) and the Dnipro River (south). I’d then drive south so that I could put the Crimea within range of HIMARS and blast every Russian base, airfield and fleet facility there.

20279

Yeah, I’ve kind of been assuming the smart move is to not try to cross the Dnipro opposed. There is a lot of the Dnipro where Ukraine controls both banks. Cross somewhere up North, and gather forces somewhere between Zaporizhzhia and wherever their Eastern flank hits the Donbas line, then drive South toward the Black Sea cutting the Donbas region off from the Crimea region.