I’d agree with that. I think he’s going to end up being quite a drag on them in the long run.
abrandt
20361
Yeah, snow can cause transport problems and cold and cause equipment problems regardless of how well the people are handling it.
I did see an opinion the other day that basically said western analysts are way off with their predictions that winter is going to really halt a lot of the fighting.
The south is certainly warmer, so it might be easier to keep things going there assuming it’s fairly dry.
We all know both Russians and Ukrainians get ice resistance perk. Still, have you ever been camped in winter? Even if you’re supplied in a perfect fashion and win a battle advancing to a new position is very hard when it’s even -10, I imagine. Ukrainian winter might be mild but it still puts a lot of restraints on the supply.
Dejin
20364
Snihurivka is about 25 miles north of Kherson.
It should snow this coming week here, so even in the tropical climate of northern Vermont November can be cold. It’s already been below freezing a few times. I have been camping in the ice and snow, but the most strenuous thing I’ve done in that sort of frozen terrain is, um, paintball. Hey, those paintballs hurt when they hit, if they’re frozen!
Seriously, though, I would definitely not want to be in the field for real in a serious winter.
Or, for that matter, at any other time, with people shooting at me, come to think of it.
strategy
20366
No one knows how the winter fighting is going to develop, but generally it will make everything more difficult and increase the suffering of everyone. Everything - from tanks to trucks to drones will be more difficult to operate effectively.
On the whole, one would expect it to favor the Ukrainians, since they are the side with shorter supply lines, better equipment and better organization. But they also actually care about not killing their people (both soldiers and civilians), whereas the Russian high command will happily sacrifice thousands if it stops Ukraine from advancing.
The one thing I’m sure of is that we don’t know.
He does? He hasn’t been a government advisor for nearly a decade.
Houngan
20370
Hmm. Feels like they’re going to try really hard to get that Melitopol N/S line established before everything gets icy.
Istari6
20372
It’s not clear why so many have doubts about winter campaigning. The Soviets proved they could do it multiple times between 1941-1945. See the Moscow counteroffensive in late 1941, Operation Uranus outside Stalingrad in late 1942, and the numerous offensives they conducted to recapture Ukrainian territory through the winter of 1943-44.
That was done repeatedly with soldiers using inferior winter clothing compared to what’s available via modern technology. That’s not to say it would be pleasant to BE a soldier manning trenches under those temperatures. But if Ukraine sees an opportunity to keep pressing while Russia is weak, winter alone doesn’t seem to be an insurmountable barrier to effective operations.
Houngan
20373
Eh, we all like to think we’re the same folks decade after decade, but I would guess that people born in 1920 in Russia are about as hard as a coffin nail compared to us today. Maybe they can rise to the occasion, but we aren’t the same humans we were, culturally.
ShivaX
20374
There is also a massive gap in competence and drive between Stalingrad Soviets and Ukraine Russians.
Ukraine is not an existential threat that’s been genociding it’s way across the nation while Stalin and his secret police are standing behind you. There are no Zhukovs here.
abrandt
20375
And for a force that’s already struggling with supply routes, this only adds more ways for that to go wrong.
Timex
20376
I also feel that while Putin oppresses his people, I do not feel he has anywhere close to the same level of absolute terror and control that Stalin wielded.
abrandt
20377
Sure, that legendary mustache Stalin had equipped had really nice bonuses to both of those stats.
Shh, Vlad the Invader will hear you! Once he grows facial hair, were d0med!
