20421

Ukraine may not be but prominent progressives are The Nation’s editor weighs in

Ukraine’s advances on the battlefield have likewise come at a horrible cost. Milley estimates that each side has suffered at least 100,000 casualties. Totally dependent on aid from the West, Ukraine’s forces are also short on soldiers, guns, air support and artillery. Millions of Ukrainians have been displaced. Russia has savaged Ukraine’s electrical grid. Liberated Kherson, like much of the country, faces a “humanitarian catastrophe.” And as Putin mobilizes more troops, there is little chance that Russia can be dislodged from much of the Russian-speaking east, much less from Crimea.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/11/15/ukraine-war-end-diplomacy-negotiations/

Ugh, I want to yell at the women, “who in the hell are the Ukrainians supposed to negotiate with”

20422

Right?!

20423

History will tell you this happens a lot. Need a people’s rebellion not a military coup.

20424

Eh, given Russian history why should we expect that to do any better?

20425

I think Ukraine would be satisfied to negotiate a peace status quo ante bellum with the status of the rest punted to later negotiations. Not happy about it, obviously, but I think they’d be willing to do so for the sake of reducing civilian suffering.

Problem is that such an outcome is not acceptable to Russia (Putin) after the annexations, which leaves no real room for negotiations. A successor to Putin could conceivably declare the annexations illegal/unconstitutional/crazy and somehow open up space for negotiations, but Putin can not. And as long as the base positions are so far from each other, it’s really weird to hear people call for peace talks.

20426

I’m not sure. When you hear the horror stories from Bucha, Izyum, Kherson, and other places behind enemy lines? If I’m Ukraine I don’t know if leaving my citizens under occupation is reducing their suffering.

Absolutely, it’s what completely baffles me about people calling for peace. Yeah, I’m sure Ukraine would love peace. But Russia is actively attacking, launching missiles into their cities, and has no desire for negotiation aside from Ukrainian surrender. What a weird mentality for a columnist of a US newspaper to decide “Hey, it’s time to just wrap this thing up, guys”.

It’s like someone breaking into your basement in 2014. You called the cops but no one would come to evict them and you weren’t able to do it yourself, so eventually you just blocked off the basement until you could figure out a way to get them out of there. In the meantime, your home invader got a bunch of friends and weapons together and stormed the main floor, taking over your kitchen and a couple bedrooms, killing your wife and taking one of your kids hostage. You managed to get them out of one of the bedrooms but they’re still in the rest of the house.

Now a neighbor comes over and says “Hey, don’t you think it’s time to negotiate with these guys? Maybe just give them the basement and the kitchen or something, I don’t know”. Meanwhile, the home invaders are shooting at you, torturing the kid they have hostage and still making demands for the entire house and for you to work to pay the mortgage for them.

20427

The horror stories from Donbass is pretty scary too, the fighting there and near Svartoske is fierce now, total WW3 style stuff. Russians are loosing stuff big time, no clue how the Ukranie fares, but their casualties are bound to be solid too.

I have hopes that Ukranie can pull more stuff off, but its getting very hard now, however they are getting alot of heavy artillery, so they can start trading shots 1-1 here, which will be good.

20428

I was thinking if it’s a promise of war in Crimea that maybe the British would want to get directly involved. Something about fighting on peninsulas in that area of the world really appeals to them even if they are historically pretty bad at it.

20429

I think the only real negotiating can happen with Ukraine in a position of strength, which ultimately means being part of NATO. If the West wants to hurry along peace, then we should consider letting them in sooner than later, or else accept that they need to fund the crap out of Ukraine’s army for a long time and give them all teh good things. A ceasfire with current territory as is with Russia isn’t worth the paper it’s written on, and again, without being part of Nato, you’re just letting Russia recharge for its’ next push.

What would Russia do if we let Ukraine into Nato immediately, drew borders where they stand, and had Ukraine step back? Would the war be over?

20430

We talk about lines on a map but for Ukrainians those areas are home or where friends and family live and are trapped in some pretty horrible conditions.

20431

I’m more in favor of giving Ukraine all the good things, blast Russia back to prewar borders, and then induct into NATO. My thought experiment was simply, if we want them to negociate and end the war sooner, would immediate introduction into NATO be enough for Russia to stop as the borders lie (rather than agree to a bullshit peace and resume whenever they’ve built up enough strength again). Otherwise, any talk is fantasy.

20432

It’s a bit difficult to tell what you mean by drew borders where they stand, but if you mean where they stood status quo ante, we would be in a war. Ukraine, as a NATO member, would be suffering a foreign invasion and NATO Article 5 would apply. That’s why NATO can’t let countries that are in active wars / unresolved territorial disputes into the alliance.

If you mean draw borders where forces stand now, that would be a spectacular betrayal of Ukraine and reward of Russian foreign aggression.

20433

Russia has resumed terror attacks

20434

Right, but would calling a ceasefire (whether or not Russia immediately complied), inducting Ukraine into NATO: would Russia blink? If we think they would, then it’s about the only viable negotiating tactic (without further military gains or losses) that could work. If we think they wouldn’t, then what’s the point of going on about peace talks, if NATO itself couldn’t stay Russian aggression.

20435

Would Russia retreat from Ukraine territory in the absence of a NATO military campaign to evict them? No. Why would they?

20436

Some of them missed - or maybe not:

20437

They wouldn’t; I’m just trying to get my head around the call for negociations at this point in the conflict, and what possibly could make them stick. I assume that people calling for talks think the status of territory gain/loss is acceptable if bringing about immediate peace.

20438

Peace status quo ante bellum would realistically not leave Ukrainian citizens in occupied territory (most sensible Ukrainian citizens have long since left Crimea and the seperatist Republics).

I don’t think the war crimes done (and wish for vengeance) would stop a peace deal, at least I hope not; vengeance won’t help the thousands who will die as the war continues. But a sticking point, of course, would be the recovery of the multitude of kidnapped/deported Ukranian citizens (including thousands of children).

But I suspect the only way to get Russia to the table at this point is to force them out of the occupied territories.

20439

I’m not sure why anyone would call for negotiation at this point. I can only imagine that the reason is some people think it would be better / wiser / safer to trade Ukraine’s territory and people and future for a false promise of peace. It’s just a call for Munich, basically.

20440

The importance of this meeting, and how serious Russia attacking Poland and killings Polish Citizens are can not be understated. The Polish Government will be under pressure to Directly Respond, and that could mean attacking Russia Directly.

If I was Russia, I’d hope that Poland “only” launches its own missiles at some Military Bases, and then Ignore It.