20481

It still looks like it could be an errant missile, even if it was one trying to sever a line between Dobrotvirska and Poland. There’s 18 km between the energy plant and the border; they may very well have been trying to hit it within UKR borders and as has happened with a lot of RU missiles, it was badly off target.

20482

Especially these days. Their smart munitions are pretty much gone. Not that it makes it okay.

20483

Probably, but Russia also denied it was them, so the whole “sorry, it was a terrible accident” is basically off the table. Which is stupid because the Poles already know it was a Russian missile.

20484

First rule of foreign policy with Russia is that none of your decision making should ever be based on anything Russia says.

20485

I’m reasonably sure it’s errant, as if they were trying to hit Poland they would have missed.

Doesn’t really matter though, it’s grossly irresponsible and as the invasion of Ukraine is illegal, the error is also criminal. It’s no different then if they targeted Poland really, though of course it is different in terms of public posturing.

20486

The Felony Murder view of international politics.

For what it’s worth, I agree.

20487

Yes, that was my assumption. I just assume they were aiming at something on the Ukrainian side of the border.

Since that’s not going to happen (and I dont think you were implying it would), I think we should:

  1. Give Ukraine ATACMS
  2. Station a nice big patriot battery right on the border and shoot down any incoming missiles “just in case”, whichever side of the border they might be aimed at.
20488

New Russian imports:

20489

Saw a blurb on CNN saying Biden said it was unlikely the missile that hit Poland was fired from Russia. That either means we have intel pointing towards a Ukrainian missile that went awry (unfortunate but not terribly meaningful except of course to the poor bastards who died and their families) or Biden is talking through his hat (somewhat unlikely).

Well, if it was a Ukrainian SAM that errantly landed in Poland, it was caused by the Russians attacking Ukraine, so in general blame still falls on Moscow for firing missiles in such a way that legitimate defensive actions might end up harming outside parties, I’d think.

20490

I’m going to go a different direction:

The goal should be that putin is in the ground.

Honestly, I’m not even joking. I’m thinking that is how this all ends. I think that this whole fiasco is in fact going to continue to become a mess of some increasing degree, only ending when Putin is literally dead.

So we should just work to skip to that end state as quickly as possible.

20491

One thing I’m unclear on is he says it likely wasn’t fired from Russia territory based on the trajectory. I was under the impression that many of the missiles in today’s attacks were launched via aircraft, though, so I don’t know what (if anything) that might mean.

Per the AP:

20492

What was fired and by who is pretty much up in the air. Some reports indicate an air-launched cruise missiles like Kh 101; this would be launched by Russia. Others indicate an S300 or S400. An S300 or S400 is normally surface-to-air, but Russia has been using them as surface-to-surface as they run short of other missiles. If so, it would have to be launched from Belorussia because there is no other Russian-held territory in range. Finally, it could be a Ukrainian S300 launched to stop Russian cruise missiles, or a Ukrainian S300 and the Kh 101 it shot down.

20493

Could it have been fired from Belarus? Hopefully we will know more in the next day or two.

20494

Seems likely to me. If it what Biden said was true and it’s not a Ukrainian SAM, then it seems likely it was fired from Belarus. Makes a hell of a lot sense in the far west of Ukraine that you’d be firing from there. I’m sure the vastly decreased distance greatly increases your options for what missiles you can use to reach your targets.

20495

Three U.S. officials said preliminary assessments suggested the missile was fired by Ukrainian forces at an incoming Russian one amid the crushing salvo against Ukraine’s electrical infrastructure Tuesday. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly.

That assessment and Biden’s comments at the Group of 20 summit in Indonesia contradict information earlier Tuesday from a senior U.S. intelligence official who told the AP that Russian missiles crossed into Poland.

20496
20497

Okay, that’s more clear than “wasn’t fired from Russian territory”.

20498

This guy is more onto it…

20499

In many ways it doesn’t really matter that much if it was Russian or Ukrainian missile. If it was not for the action of Putin’s Russian armed forces, those two Polish farmers would be alive today.

The rest of the world would have lower energy prices, and tens of thousands of people in conflict and famine areas in Africa would not have died of starvation due to the disruptions to the grain supply. Plus of course more than 100,000 people in Ukraine and Russia would still be alive.

I don’t know if there is the equivalent of the felony murder rule in international law, but there should be.

20500

I think it takes the clamoring for Article 5 entirely off the table. Maybe even takes substantial Article 4 discussion outcomes out of the picture.

NATO isn’t going to directly intervene in the war because of a Ukrainian air defense accident. And it probably isn’t going to use NATO assets staged in Poland to directly target incoming Russian missiles in Ukraine over this, either.

Maybe it will produce some impetus to provide more weapon systems to Ukraine.