You’re making the claim, YOU show the evidence
Makes it sound like the Russians are getting their asses handed to them repeatedly.
Janster
20786
Here you go :)
Not a million, but there are about 250k or so on the ground already, and I think its open ended so yeah, a million, sooner or later, and probably wont end there.
They shouldn’t and yet evidently they do…
Yet another source that shows you are wrong, and has to jump through a bunch of weird hoops to try and show their mobilization is bigger than what most analysts believe. And THEN you claim 250k have already been deployed! Where does that number come from? You think a mobilized force LARGER than the original invasion force has been thrown into combat SINCE SEPTEMBER.
Where’s your evidence for that?
Relevent
Russian leadership may be distributing a document among Russian servicemembers stating that Russia needs to mobilize five million personnel to win the war in Ukraine, an impossible task for the Russian Federation. The Ukrainian General Staff Deputy Chief Oleksiy Hromov stated on November 24 that the military-political leadership of the Russian Federation has prepared a document titled “Conclusion of the War with NATO in Ukraine” and has begun distributing it among Russian servicemembers.[26] The document reportedly identifies shortcomings of the Russian Armed Forces and notes the need for Russia to mobilize five million Russians to win the war in Ukraine.[27] It is unclear whether Russian leadership considers the five million figure a possible target or whether it is an unreachable projected force requirement, reasonable or not, that suggests that they cannot achieve their objectives in Ukraine. Russia’s chaotic and ineffective conduct of partial mobilization with the target of 300,000 mobilized personnel suggests that the mobilization of five million Russians is an impossible task for the Russian Federation. Russian leadership may have drafted and distributed the document in the fashion of Soviet-style after-action reports that deflect responsibility from the overarching strategic leadership failures of the war and place culpability for failure on the operational and tactical failures of the Russian military. Hromov, however, provided no additional details and ISW has been unable to obtain any corroboration or independent reporting about the document.
Why not 5 million I guess?
You said a lot of dumb shit in this thread, but this one takes the cake.
Russia’s corruption and graft is institutionalized, top to bottom. To suggest that this could just… stop is so insane that I’m now convinced you are either a tankie or a Russian shill. Either way, your posts on this subject can be safely ignored.
Janster
20791
Your confirmation bias has made you incredibly hostile…you should think about it.
I’m not a tankie and I don’t support Putin in any way, I am however worried about the future for Ukraine.
Menzo
20792
Guys, he’s just asking questions.
KevinC
20793
About those precision missiles that Russia was “supposed” to be running out of, as Janster framed it: according to the UK Ministry of Defense, Russia is now resorting to cannibalizing their old nuclear missiles by replacing the nuclear warheads with ballast.
Of course, everything must be seen as a strength for Russia. So rather than indicating how depleted their stockpile is, I’m sure this will be an indication of just how deep it is! Just like Russia pulling T62s out of museums showed just how many tanks they have.
If you can work the numbers out so that their advantage is a multiple of pi, I’m in.
Now, that’s one job I hope they get absolutely, 100% right.
Who is William Spaniel, and why should anyone care what he has to say on YouTube about the size of the Russian mobilization?
KevinC
20797
I don’t know, but given the number of times I’ve wasted time watching a linked video only to discover that it doesn’t say what it was purported to, I’m not bothering anymore.
Grifman
20798
I have given you multiple lines of evidence as to why they cannot do this in several posts and you have as of yet not responded to a single specific objection I have raised. Quit asking others to provide evidence when you can’t/won’t respond to my evidence.
Grifman
20800
From his book page on Amazon (linked on YouTube page):
“William Spaniel is an assistant professor at the University of Pittsburgh who studies international security, bargaining, and nuclear proliferation. Prior to starting at Pitt, he received a PhD in political science from the University of Rochester and was a postdoctoral fellow at Stanford University. He is the creator of the popular YouTube channel and book series Game Theory 101.”
sharaleo
20801
Looks like pretty much a nobody, who pivoted to 100% Ukraine war content once it began.
I think it is this guy, so has a PhD in political science from 2015 with what looks to be some focus on nuclear proliferation, but has spent the last several years doing stuff on game theory, until Russia invaded Ukraine.
https://www.polisci.pitt.edu/people/william-spaniel
Zero listed history or specialisation on Russia or Russian politics and internal affairs, but the war has obviously been good for him, since his YT channel is now only war content, he has a book on amazon and he’s doing speaking tours!
I dunno, maybe he’s knowledgable, but I don’t know why you’d take his word on things over experts that have spent most of their careers covering eastern Eurpoean politics…
For the record, his evidence for mobilsation being 500k to date is the spike in wedding registries accross Russian regions.
edit ninja’d
abrandt
20802
Those frontline maps Ukraine distributed are a little bit sensationalized. They include the entire border with Russia and Belarus that currently experiences no fighting and is likely very lightly manned on both sides. The active front is much shorter, and again, not very wide.
As to reasons why Russian supply might be so much worse than Soviet:
- While corruption in the Soviet Union was bad, this system is rotted to the core. The Soviet Union was able to do a whole lot that Russia hasn’t been able to.
- Germany didn’t have pinpoint accurate anything to strike any supply depots within 50km of the front at literally any time.
- Motivation. Russian troops still don’t want to be there and still don’t generally care to do a good job. Low morale affects the entire system, including logistics.
- The Soviet Union was fully mobilized and on a total war footing by the time they were on the offensive. They had their entire economy dedicated to supplying the war effort. Plus their factories were all pretty much brand new rather than ill-maintained old broken factories.
KevinC
20803
As well as the US via lend-lease.
That is just an astonishing amount of hardware sent to them.
