20865

Those ten years saw 15,000 killed and another 35,000 wounded. In comparison, Russia has already suffered over 100,000 casualties, their air force has been rendered ineffective, and they’ve lost near 3,000 tanks and 6,000 armored vehicles in nine months. Their losses in Ukraine are on a much larger scale.

That being said, I also have concerns about Ukraine’s ability to push Russia out. Particularly in the separatist regions near Russia’s border, where they have nearby rail access and Ukraine is going to be hesitant to fire missiles into Russia to take out their supply depots.

Ukraine geared their army towards the defense and I think it’s fair to say they’ve astounded near everyone with their effectiveness, but I just don’t know if they’re equipped or trained to perform large scale offensive maneuvers with armor and that sort of thing. And I don’t know how you break fortified lines without that, assuming those defensive lines are supplied.

20866

That’s a great post and echo’s some concerns I have as well. However, since then, the middle class and wealthy have become extremely Westernized and “comfortable” unlike the way things were in the Soviet and Yeltsin years. Maybe even lower middle class too, so I hope that’s a factor vs. the masses being miserable all the time with nothing but “pride” to live off.

20867

Poppycock I say! Everyone knows Russian troops only get one small face towel per squad.

20868

Unfortunately we’re the weak link. If the West stops supplying Ukraine, they’re going to be in trouble. Right now they are heavily dependent on US and Europe providing both weapons and propping up their economy.

20869

I think this is an area where Janster made a valid point which doesn’t come up very often here or in analysis elsewhere.

This war is being fought along a very wide front - the kind of front that would have been a major campaign during WWII. But without anything like WWII unit densities, on either side. Ukraine probably hasn’t ever had the unit density to create a genuine encirclement; they’ve cut roads and supply lines, and forced Russian retreats, but not been in a position to stop them. Having said that, only Kherson looks like a withdrawal in genuinely good order. Most of the time Russian retreats, from the evidence left behind, have been more like sauve qui peut and screw the equipment.

20870

It’s a completely fascinating response, viewed from a distance - like watching a swarm of moths bashing their brains out over and over on a window trying to get to a light bulb. I think it’s easier to write off a troll than someone who’s apparently sincere, and that combined with utter bloody-mindedness is apparently a magic cocktail that keeps people responding over and over to utter, baseless nonsense. Or, to put it another way:

I should probably count myself lucky that I’m apparently immune to this particular strain, it’s not like I’m not guilty of the same sort of thing often enough.

20871

I don’t think he’s a troll. I think he’s convinced that the best thing for him, maybe even for ‘Europe’, is that the war end now; and everything else is just rationalizing that bad outcome for Ukraine. I think it was made pretty clear up there 👆somewhere.

I mean, the obvious question he should answer is: if we stipulate that he is right that eventual Russian victory is very likely, perhaps inevitable, due to sheer weight of numbers of men and supplies, then what does he propose that Ukraine do?

20872

Answering a rather specific question I’ve seen online a few times, the UK MoD confirms it is supplying Brimstone 2 to Ukraine (though the fact they are firing them out of trucks doesn’t make it into the video!)

Also, there are clearly some unfulfilled film school graduates on the MoD payroll.

20873

I don’t think he is either, which is exactly why his every post prompts 30 replies. That, or he’s the most masterful troll ever, in that he’s figured out how to perfectly fake sincerity.

20874

Russia is a big powerful country with a lot of people and stuff in it. They seem to be intent on blowing up Ukraine. I don’t want them to do that, but it would be a mistake to believe that they aren’t a big powerful country with lots of people and stuff in it. Ukraine is in trouble. This winter will be bad.

Sum it up about? How many posts is that one worth?

20875

I think you can come to any conclusion you want by looking to their history:

  • They didn’t give up in Afghanistan for 10 years!
  • They gave up in Afghanistan after suffering 50,000 casualties (15,000 KIA) over 10 years, and they’re already at twice those numbers after less than a single year in Ukraine
  • The Soviet Union failed within a year of giving up in Afghanistan, so Putin cannot retreat!
  • The Soviet Union began largely because the Tsar would not give up in WW1, despite huge casualties, so Putin must end the bleeding
  • WW2 USSR showed enormous tenacity in WW2, simply refusing to stop fighting!
  • WW2 USSR had the backing of the US and the British Empire, who kept them supplied. Ukraine is the one with helpful allies now, while Russia stands virtually alone

I think none of us knows anything. It probably comes down to Putin’s mindset. That’s a combination of how he views potential threats to staying in power, the information bubble he lives in, and perhaps his health. Anyone know anything about any of that?

20876

Lol, almost all of 'em.

Got that right!

20877

True, we only see shadows on the cave wall.

Later historians describe what happens and pop history would make whatever comes out of it as inevitable and obvious to any thinking person at the time, but for now we’re stuck with regular surprises.

20878

So right now, on ABC news, snow and below zero temps in Kyiv.

20879

I agree, the information we get is saturated with both Ukrainian and Russian propaganda, it’s very hard to get reliable stuff, and they both engage in misinformation campaigns…

However, I get it, people here don’t like the issue of Russia winning, neither do I, that is an awful thought and I would hate to witness it…
However, will Putin allow another loss, like someone else said here, Afghanistan was for them also a traumatic memory, and already this war is like nothing else we’ve seen since WW2…

Can Putin still remain alive after a loss?
So with that in mind, will he do whatever it takes?
So what will that constitute…

I postulate…
A lot more boots on the ground, the vaunted million man army…
The logistical ramp-up to support it.
Continual destruction of infrastructure and terror bombing.
Possible destruction of ALL bridges across the Dniper.

The shutdown of the last pipelines working to Europe in the coldest period, around January, and a carbon stranglehold to undermine our unity…
And while Europe has options, this is going to get seriously expensive, and European industry could be crippled…we’d have serious economical problems, particularly in the energy-demanding sector.

This is the future as I see it…how about them apples?

20880

Below zero in context usually means below 0 Celsius, so not quite what Americans mean when they say below 0. In American numbers it’s 28 degrees in Kyiv as I type this.

20881

Well, that’s pretty cold. Not sure what the reporter meant as far as F or C. There was no context provided. Which in hindsight is sloppy reporting.

20882

Heh, no it isn’t, it’s just the unusual circumstance of us all being invested in UA’s future. Pretty cold is -10 celsius or the teens in real people degrees. We need another month and a half to have any idea about how winter it going to play out.

20883

From what I gather, Ukrainian winters aren’t that cold, they seem to range down to -15c, which is cold, but not totally bad, it depends a bit on wind conditions…

I play with the kids outside until like -20, after that I think its rather sucky to be outside…and I don’t like to ski much in that temperature.
However in the army here we got stuff that keeps you warm down to -40…so there is that…

I don’t see Ukraine serving up Finnish winters.

20884

Thing is, there is nothing to be gained for Europe by ditching Ukraine and giving in to Russia. in the medium to long term, the EU cannot be dependent on an erratic, brutally violent, and pathologically paranoid regime. Even the Gulf states were/are a lot more logical and can usually be dealt with (and some Europeans are in OPEC anyhow). I certainly hope the EU countries realize this is a chance once and for all to take the hard route they need to travel to get their future set up on the right foundation.

Of course, if all people end up thinking about is the immediate situation, anything can happen. That’s why I think It is important for the USA to support western Europe any way we can, in addition to directly supporting Ukraine. Whether or not domestic politics here will let us though is another story. Europeans are certainly not the only ones who can deceive themselves.