I think I misunderstand the government of Russia and Belarus cause I’m more or less a European, not a Soviet person. It’s hard for me to get into their shoes but at least I think in the same language as they are and I’ve heard them talking for all of my life.
I do think that a lot of discussions you all do about their motivation is like watching someone commenting on Aliens VS Predator movie and trying to predict Predator’s moves based on your knowledge of American Marines.
Putin will lose if a successful coup or a revolution happens in Russia. He will not lose if he surrenders occupied territories in Ukraine, Crimea, Belgorod province, million of drafted men die and so on. This will not help him, but it will pose less direct danger than, say, a big student demonstration in Moscow.
Ex-SWoo
20987
Just a quick point on the “50k/day shelling” that was mentioned upthread : that number is now down down to 20k/day as of last month and both sides are scrambling to lean on their allies to supply more ammo for them but Russia’s options for supply are more limited.
Everything we have seen suggests that Russia’s logistical problems are real, they are severe, and that are many years away from solving them.
This doesn’t mean that Russia will will lose the war, but I have to think that Russia’s ability to wage a high intensity war is severely limited and they will have limited means to do a major offensive. It wouldn’t surprise me if the lines don’t move much between now and next summer.
To some extent Ukraine was fooled because they overestimated the Russians a bit–the Russian plans were clearly unrealistic given the capabilities and posture of the Russian forces, so Kyiv dismissed those options as unlikely. It remains an open question as to whether the Russian planning was theoretically a good one, because it rests on a ton of assumptions that are all questionable. I tend to prefer planning that goes off of worst-case scenarios myself, rather than relies on everything going well.
But overall, that whole thread/analysis is pretty good I think. Russia is capable of inflicting a lot of damage on Ukraine, and their armed forces do learn over time. That was never the question though. Anyone with an ounce of sense has realized all along that this war will be hard. The real question is whether Russia can put together enough tactical, operational, and strategic resources and skill to significantly change the situation on the ground to their advantage in a time-frame that still leaves them plausibly able to claim victory. And while a lot of focus has been, rightly, on Ukraine’s ability to sustain combat over time, Russia is not immune either from the dangers of long-term costs and attrition. It’s a matter of morale as much as materiel, and that sort of thing is difficult to analyze accurately.
For me the biggest problem is simply that the framing of this war, from Moscow’s perspective, is such that anything other than the original intended result seems like a defeat. When you position your adversary as the second coming of the Third Reich, demonize them as existential threats, and brutalize their people in the areas you end up occupying, negotiated settlements are kind of hard. It also gives Ukraine zero reason to negottiate.
Janster
20989
You keep saying that, yet they supply 50k shells a day to the front, what does that say about logistical issues? What exactly are Russian troops missing in terms of logistics, they didn’t even seem short on ammo in Kherson, and that was a logistical nightmare.
I guess there are two different interpretations, one where we’re talking about getting it to the front, the other, what’s left in stocks to bring forward.
I was told a while ago that they had uncounted millions of artillery shells in stock, maybe not?
You’re responding directly to a post that disputes that number with citation. Did you even read what you’re responding to?
Janster
20991
Yeah, they are running out of supply, this is different from having logistical issues…
Might be nitpicking, but there are many items that makes a supply chain, the moving of those said goods to the front is taken care of by logistical units.
sharaleo
20992
In a military context, supply is part of the logistics chain…
Well, true, there are multiple layers of logistics. Having enough stuff is sort of a baseline. Getting that stuff to where it needs to go is another factor. Being able to distribute it to the actual troops using it, the sort of tactical aspect of supply, is yet a third. All have to function, because a problem in any of these stages causes problems. It makes zero difference to the folks at the front whether their bullets aren’t there because of stockpile issues, strategic transport issues, or local distribution issues really.
abrandt
20994
You’ve been talking about their endless supply of missiles and artillery for months!
I understand trying to get other viewpoints (I’d like some honest other viewpoints with evidence also) but you maybe need to spend less time in the corners of YouTube and social media that blame Ukraine for this war. I can guarantee you those will not provide you an honest alternate viewpoint.
I can’t understand why Ukraine won’t negotiate:
Janster
20996
Yeah, but from a military point, they are able to solve the logistics but supply, that’s not something they solve by themselves…
As for endless missiles and artillery, has the rain stopped? What is your proof that they are running out? That said, even I think they will run out of missiles, but artillery, I don’t know, they have pretty deep stocks some say.
As for dark corners of youtube, I think you should take note that info gotten from Ukraine could be just as much propaganda as info from Russia. I tend to think Ukrainian propaganda is a bit more truthful but the recent missile incident in Poland…well…not so much all the time?
You, an hour ago:
You, 5 minutes ago:
What the heck are you doing, man?
abrandt
20998
I don’t know if you’re being difficult on purpose or what, but these are not the only two options. There is a wealth of third party analysis all over the internet(that I know you watch!) that are neither Ukrainian or Russian. Yes, they will tend to favor one of those sides, but they aren’t some propaganda arm of that country. You have the OSINT outfits that are especially trying really hard to provide evidence-based information that cuts through the fog of war. I’ve not seen anything from the various western intelligence updates that strikes me as particularly untruthful either.
As for the missile incident, as soon as images of the missile remnants were posted I saw comments that it looked most likely to be an S-300 and was probably going to end up being a Ukrainian SAM. Of course at the time both Russia and Ukraine were pointing fingers on that one neither of them probably actually knew the truth. You think either side knows where all the missiles they fire actually ended up?
Janster
20999
Might have been a bit fast there, I don’t really know if they are running out of supply, statistically they should be far from it, they have really deep pools of ammo.
The front is smaller now, less places to stack artillery…maybe less artillery as barrels run out, I don’t know, but statistically from their pools of supplies, they can fire about 50k a day for 2 years or so.
Give or a take, but there is a lot of if and buts to that argument I know…feel free to chime in.
As for the missile incident, I’m just saying, there be propaganda and then there be reality…
Grifman
21000
Hint: modern roads /= logistics.
I’d also add where are all of the trucks going to come from to use these roads, because the Russian army doesn’t have them now. You just can’t conjure up tens of thousands of trucks, mechanics, spare parts, etc overnight.
This is the sort of stuff you consistently ignore or are ignorant of. You just wave your hands and say they’ll fix it with it ever explaining how.
Grifman
21001
If they are running out of supply, how are they going to support another million troops on the front lines???
abrandt
21002
Even more moderner roads. Hover roads are what they need to win this thing so they’ll build those by December.
Grifman
21003
All you need to do is Google “Russian artillery volume decrease” and you will see multiple credible sources that discuss that the volume of Russian artillery fire has decreased, that barrels are wearing out, and that ammo is starting to run short, or will be in the coming months.
To be fair, both sides are facing this problem. But given the economic strength of the west, it is probably in a much better position to solve this problem than Russia (it should be noted that Russian artillery shell production relies in part on equipment from the west that is no longer available and for which there will be no further parts due to sanctions).
abrandt
21004
Ukraine has the added problem that they have two vastly different supply streams for their artillery since they are now using large numbers of both Soviet and western artillery with incompatible shells(152mm vs 155mm, I believe). Western industry doesn’t currently produce enough shells to supply Ukraine’s needs and for their other artillery they are pretty well running through stocks of what former Warsaw nations had to donate. I did see that Ukraine has some domestic production coming online for 152mm ammunition. Hopefully they can produce it in meaningful amounts soon.
