The Russia is getting more evil thread

[Janster]

Well, I guess youtubers suck, but I do like Perun and he has something to say about Russian artillery, and domestic production.

"Outgunned" - Artillery & The War in Ukraine - Developments, lessons, & logistics

Here you go.

So I don’t agree and I guess we’ll just have to see.

[abrandt]

But again, it seems like he’s maybe saying something different than you are? This slide seems way less confident than you are.

[Coldsteel]

Ah, I see the troll is back and people are biting again.

[sharaleo]

Russia is sitting on immense stocks of artillery and is trolling the west by trying to buy more from North Korea and Iran for the lulz.

[TheWombat]

@Janster

As for endless missiles and artillery, has the rain stopped? What is your proof that they are running out? That said, even I think they will run out of missiles, but artillery, I don’t know, they have pretty deep stocks some say.

Erm, I’m not really part of that discussion. I haven’t commented much on how much ordnance is going down range from either side. Largely because I don’t know :).

@sharaleo

Russia is sitting on immense stocks of artillery and is trolling the west by trying to buy more from North Korea and Iran for the lulz.

Heh, yeah, to an extent, but I see no reason to believe they don’t have lots of old shells laying around. The problem is how useful are they? My guess is “not nearly useful enough,” given how Russia is looking for other sources.

Personally, I would be skeptical of the safety and utility of shells that first saw the light of day a half century ago or whatever.

[antlers]

@Janster

they didn’t even seem short on ammo in Kherson, and that was a logistical nightmare.

Didn’t seem short on ammo in Kherson? I think this is exactly why they pulled out of Kherson-- too difficult to resupply artillery in volume.

Russians have been learning a little how to counter HIMARS, dispersing their supply operations. It was too late to save Kherson for them, but it will make it harder for Ukraine to score in the future.

Problem for Ukraine remains what it always was: they don’t have a good way to counter massed entrenched artillery, and Russia has lots of it. Non-precision artillery still kill soldiers on the battlefield and in trenches, and flattens cities if it gets close enough. If the West really intends Ukraine to win the war without direct NATO intervention, they need to get Ukraine pilots training in F-16s. Delaying that prolongs the war to no purpose.

[abrandt]

@antlers

Didn’t seem short on ammo in Kherson? I think this is exactly why they pulled out of Kherson-- too difficult to resupply artillery in volume.

Russians have been learning a little how to counter HIMARS, dispersing their supply operations. It was too late to save Kherson for them, but it will make it harder for Ukraine to score in the future.

Kherson was a special supply challenge. Once Ukraine could reliably hit the river crossings it was just a matter of time. That isn’t really going to be a factor through the rest of the country.

@antlers

Non-precision artillery still kill soldiers on the battlefield and in trenches, and flattens cities if it gets close enough.

And even if inaccurate artillery doesn’t effectively kill soldiers without using a lot of shells, it certainly keeps infantry hunkered down. You aren’t going to advance on foot under that kind of shelling.

@antlers

If the West really intends Ukraine to win the war without direct NATO intervention, they need to get Ukraine pilots training in F-16s.

I still strongly disagree with this. F-16s aren’t going to do anything that more long-range precision rockets couldn’t do other than get shot down. A bunch of A-10s on the other hand…(I kid!). Traditional airpower is going to remain a minor factor for both sides. I hope that SDB on a rocket idea comes to fruition fast, that could be huge.

[JonRowe]

@abrandt

F-16s aren’t going to do anything that more long-range precision rockets couldn’t do other than get shot down. A bunch of A-10s on the other hand…(I kid!). Traditional airpower is going to remain a minor factor for both sides. I hope that SDB on a rocket idea comes to fruition fast, that could be huge.

Well, I think that the idea is that the F-16’s can do a heck of a lot moe than just what the long-range precision rockets are doing. I think of it more as a necessary upgrade to prevent a change in the air war hurting Ukraine. Their air force has been heavily depleted during the war, and they have said they need replacements, and want the F-16 (or F-18, good luck) and I would believe them at that. If Russia were to change tactics (who knows) they would be in a bad place with what they have now.

I guess I just think of it more as a “backfill” than accomplishing anything of note right now. It isn’t “urgent” but it could be very important to have in the future as this war drags on, and they continue to lose the planes they have.

I was wondering how much the F-16 deployed AGMs cost, and it is fairly similar to what you pay for a himars rocket. So, if anything the F-16 is more expensive to launch missiles.

The idea is, Ukraine has to maintain a competent A2A fleet to compliment their ground anti-air capabilities. The RUSI report goes into how they used their aircraft to provide anti-air support while moving their ground based air defenses. It didn’t go particularly well there, but it certainly helped support the ground based air defenses for a time, and with F-16’s and their better radar/equipment it would probably have been a lot better.

[Soapyfrog]

@Janster

As for reinforcements, I’m still right, they are recruiting way more than 300k

Sources please. Also not a million.

[KevinC]

The Wheels on the Bus go round and round - 3D Animation English rhyme for children

[HideousRex]

Looks like I can safely ignore this thread for the day. May as well argue with a fence post.

[Soapyfrog]

@Janster

statistically they should be far from it, they have really deep pools of ammo.

You say statistically so you must have sources for that

[anonymgeist]

The source is going to be “because they need way more than 300k.”

[HideousRex]

@Sabotai

Some people in this thread have expressed interest in helping out, so I will post this link here. I will also post it in the Ukrainian help thread!

Winter help: NoviBorovychi (region Snovsk) Ukraine, organized by Bernd Veldhuis

Before this gets buried under a lot of useless chatter, I’d like to thank @Sabotai for helping this family out and setting up the GoFundMe.

Donated!

[DaveLong]

I PLONKed him awhile ago.

No surprise he started his bullshit right after @Sabotai posted his request for help to bury it in his bullshit.

[KevinC]

Also a reminder that the link is posted in the Things You Can Do For Ukraine thread, where it won’t get buried. And is probably a good thread for me to revisit, especially at this time of year.

[KevinC]

@DaveLong

No surprise he started his bullshit right after @Sabotai posted his request for help to bury it in his bullshit.

I don’t think that’s fair or accurate. He posted before Sabotai’s link to the GoFundMe, it just happened to be around the same time. Just clarifying since if you have him on ignore the timeline may not have been clear.

[abrandt]

I paid my penance(made a donation) before I gave in and started replying to you-know-who this morning.

[abrandt]

@Soapyfrog

You say statistically so you must have sources for that

Perun gave detailed statistics that should be all you need. See, very very large. In statistics that can safely be substituted with infinity.

[ddtibbs]

@TheWombat

Personally, I would be skeptical of the safety and utility of shells that first saw the light of day a half century ago or whatever.

Much of the ammo we used during Desert Storm had been sitting on boats in Diego Garcia for many, many years. Our .50 cal ammo was made during the beginning of the Korean War. Dumb HE artillery shells aren’t very complicated.