21467

That’s a weird spelling of crystal meth you used there.

21468

Would explain some of the Russian decision-making.

21469

I’m assuming so. And they might be the only option Ukraine would have for intercepting ballistic missiles (though it’s possible they have some of the late-model S-300s that are supposed to do the same thing).

21470

Ukraine goes 13 for 13 against Iranian drones.

Also, it seems like rumors of a Russian breakthrough at Bakhmut were premature? I haven’t seen it on ISW or UK MoD and I’m still seeing video of fighting there, including a Wagner unit wiped out. Given how many people Wagner has gotten killed trying to take the city, I would think if they had succeeded we’d be hearing all about it by now.

21471

I haven’t heard anyone credible say there was a breakthrough but my understanding is that Russia is in the outskirts of Bakhmut basically by using the same grinding tactics they used to take Sievierodonetsk. I think they have been trying to outflank the city on both sides as well but the challenge there is that basically they have to advance uphill with very little cover.

So it’s just costly frontal assaults that make WW1 style progress.

21472

Yeah, apparently the Russian reports of a breakthrough were premature. The Russians have gone silent, and there’s nothing from the Ukrainian side.

21473

“Only I can guarantee that I won’t break in and burn your house down.”

21474

Talk about delusions of grandeur.

21475

Nice continent you’ve got here, wouldn’t want anything to happen to it.

21476

Their conscript corpses and poorly maintained mil hardware are their primary volume exports. And business is good, so why not expand?

21477

A more optimistic view on Russia’s prospects:

Still a lot of “if’s”.

21478

The fact that we gave Ukraine Patriot batteries means that the US doesn’t think Russia is going to be winning this war.

21479

“Russia realists” circa March 2022: The mere idea of being cut off from Russian gas will cause Europe to cave before the month is out.

Circa summer 2022: The mere idea that winter is coming will cause Europe to cave before it arrives.

Circa late fall 2022: Once cold weather arrives, Europe will finally cave.

December 2022: I mean sure, it’s winter now. But once really cold weather arrives, Europe will cave.

March 2023, probably: Europe will cave before winter. Note we didn’t say which winter!

21480

I wonder how long this goes on for? Frozen conflict maybe, like with North Korea?

21481

It’s certainly hard to see the countries having friendly or even neutral relations for decades to come no matter how the military situation pans out.

21482

I remember at the initial invasion date in february, they were saying if the Russians were to invade, they had to do it while the ground was still frozen, allowing armor to move unconstrained by roads and unhindered by mud. The fall was probably a time of mushy ground, but that must be hardening now. I wonder if we’re going to see some bursts of mobility in the coming weeks.

21483

I think Ukraine will try something. I think there might be a fear that Russia will be getting stronger if given a winter to integrate recently mobilized troops into their army.

I think Ukraine will feed just enough troops into Bakhmut to hold it and attrit Russian attackers. They will continue to pressure in the north to pin down troops, the big push will come in the south towards Melitopol. If they were to take that city, holding the Crimea becomes very hard with the bridge still out.

But the Russians know this and I have to assume are preparing for this. I am worried the lines will harden and the war stagnate, with all the military and political implications that entails.

21484

Assessments of what Russia can or cannot do will vary with the assessor, of course, but often the analyses we see tend to ignore Ukrainian actions. Neither side is acting in a vacuum. Whether something succeeds or not will depend a lot on both how it is executed and how the other side responds. And it’s not a turn-based game, it’s real-time, or more accurately a form of WEGO probably.

Hence, the ground may support mobility but that too works both ways. Concentrated mobile offensives also concentrate targets for the defenders. And of course everything that we read about what Kyiv or Moscow is doing or might do we can assume Kyiv and Moscow also read…

21485

I recall Ukraine has flat out said they are preparing for winter offensives.

21486

This is a very interesting article on Russia’s building of defensive fortifications across Ukraine: