Grifman
21669
So if Russia was invaded the conscripts “legally” couldn’t shoot a gun until legislation was passed, making it legal for them to do so? That just seems really weird. The US has had conscripts before, but once they were in the military, they could do whatever the govt/military ordered them to do. You didn’t have to later pass a law saying they the could actually be soldiers and fight.
I suspect there is a lot of historical, cultural, political, and social baggage that goes along with those conscription laws in Russia. Unlike the USA, which really only had peacetime conscription from 1940-73, and not entirely continuously within that period either, many European nations including Russia/USSR have had mandatory military service since mass armies were invented pretty much. The way those national service systems have operated over the years has shifted to reflect the broader context, and I suspect that in modern Russia the rules are a pastiche of patchwork fixes, amendments, changes, and evolutions that came about as the country oscillated between various political economies.
vinraith
21671
“Why would anyone ever ask for help? How pathetic. I’ve never done that!”
Yeah, this is a recent development. People are very touchy about this because of campaigns in Afghanistan and Chechnya. Putin goes out of his way to convince people no draftees get to the front. In a rare move for Russian government they acknowledged that some draftees were in Ukraine, got them out of there and promised not to do this anymore.
And again, don’t think too much about this or that being a law. Russian parliament is now thinking over a law that allows breaking the law in the “New territories” if it’s “to support the state interests of Russia”.
MikeJ
21673
Nice little reminder that we aren’t actually on the worst timeline:
Had all of that happened as planned, Ukraine would now be pockmarked with the concentration camps, torture chambers, and makeshift prisons that have been discovered in Bucha, Izyum, Kherson, and all the other territories temporarily occupied by Russia and liberated by the Ukrainian army. A generation of Ukrainian writers, artists, politicians, journalists, and civic leaders would already be buried in mass graves. Ukrainian books would have been removed from schools and libraries. The Ukrainian language would have been suppressed in all public spaces. Hundreds of thousands more Ukrainian children would have been kidnapped and transported to Russia or trafficked farther around the world.
Alstein
21674
I think most of this board would volunteer to be America’s Vir Cotto.
I do think some of that Atlantic article was overstated. The Russians would have had a harder time in Ukraine (though Ukraine would have fallen in 3-6 months), and the Russians would do atrocities. I think China/Russia would know Taiwan/Poland are red lines due to more vital strategic interests, Iran might have fucked around (and likely would have found out), especially as Ukraine would have been a PR disaster for the west.
We would have likely been forced to deploy troops to Baltic countries+Poland though to reassure those allies, something we haven’t had to do much now. (I think we have token forces there currently, we would have needed more otherwise)
That said, Biden’s calls on Ukraine have been at least 99% correct, and it’s something we can take pride in. Even when we haven’t given Ukraine everything they’ve wanted, we’ve at least had a decent reason not to.
CraigM
21675
Haha, you think Don Junior pays his taxes, lol.
Shoigu announces impossible plan to massively increase the size of the Russian army:
Shoigu publicly presented a series of proposed Russian defense policy changes to significantly increase the size of the Russian military. Shoigu proposed that Russia reestablish the Moscow and Leningrad military districts, form a new army corps, and form 17 new maneuver divisions.[4] Shoigu suggested that Russia form a new army corps in Karelia, two new airborne assault divisions, three new motorized rifle divisions in occupied Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts, and expand seven existing brigades of the Northern Fleet and Western, Central, and Eastern Military districts into seven new motorized rifle divisions while expanding five existing naval infantry brigades into five naval infantry divisions. Shoigu also proposed that Russia form five artillery divisions to support military districts.[5] He proposed increasing the strength of the Russian Armed Forces to 1.5 million servicemen, including 695,000 contract servicemen (Shoigu said in spring 2021 that 380,000 Russians were contract servicemen), gradually increasing the age of conscription for military service from 18 to 21 years and raising the age limit for conscripts from 27 to 30 years. Shoigu did not specify a timeline for these measures.
So the Kremlin’s public response to its military failure is still based on impossible fantasies and a Potemkin army.
Shoigu claimed during his speech that the Kremlin is always open to holding constructive, peaceful negotiations.[16] Putin and Shoigu likely reiterated Russian maximalist goals at the Russian MoD Collegium at a time when Ukrainian officials are discussing the possibility of a renewed Russian large-scale offensive in the winter of 2023 and voices are rising in the West calling for Ukraine to initiate negotiations with Moscow to add further pressure on Ukraine to negotiate on Russian terms.[17] The Kremlin likely believes that it will be able to exact more preemptive concessions from Ukraine the more maximalist its stated goals for the war are as it also prepares what it is presenting as another large-scale offensive operation. The Kremlin’s effort to coerce Ukraine into negotiating or offering preemptive concessions is increasingly divorced from the battlefield reality in Ukraine where Ukrainian forces retain the initiative.
Putin actually recruits milbloggers to some official sounding committee:
Putin also established a working group on December 20 that will address issues with mobilization and offer social and legal support for participants of the “special military operation,” empowering some milbloggers.[21] Putin recruited several prominent milbloggers such as Mikhail Zvinchuk from Rybar , Evgeniy Poddubny, and Alexander Sladkov among others, as well as some state officials to compile a monthly report to be delivered directly to Putin. The working group has the authority to make proposals and review mobilization concerns.
abrandt
21678
I thought they were supposed to be shooting for at least three million?
Finally someone got the joke.
Anyway, Putin knows that Russian gamedev is strong (video is on the bottom of the page in Telegram player)
Strollen
21681
The other thing that pisses me off is that hopefully 95% of the equipment the military buys will end up being useless, F111, Essex carriers, F-14s, M60 tanks were all state of the art equipment and now most are scrap metal. The alternative using them in wars is generally far worse.
The economies of the military-industrial complex still exist whether the equipment is growing obsolete or sent to Ukraine. The 800-billion we spend on the military each year does create good pay jobs in all 50s state for civilians. Joining the military is one of the best ways for folks who don’t want to go college to get job training, and being an officer is also valuable training. Now mind you, military spending is only one step up from the government paying one guy to dig a hole and another guy to fill in the hole as a wise use of government spending…
In many ways, America should be grateful to Ukraine. The kid and his couple of friends who stand up to the Jr High bully and his gang aren’t just helping themselves they are helping the whole school. Giving them our baseball bats to even out the fight is truly the least we good do. They are the ones getting bloody and bruised, I can buy a new bat. In the case of Ukraine 100,000 casualties is a terrible price to pay for destroying the Russian military. But is beneficial to all of Europe, Asia, and the US.
When the aid hits one of year US military spending, I’ll start paying attention to the cost. Right now it is a big bargain in treasury, and even more so in blood.
Edit: David Frum says this better in the Atlantic
According to this, as long as you have received 4 months of training, and you are called up or conscripted, they can deploy you where ever they like.
Reservists will have done their mandatory service of one year.
Sending them to war with so little training - x number of years later - is murder, but I think it’s legal?
Tortilla
21683
Why are we debating what’s legal for conscripts in Russia? Honest question, it seems pointless to me. There’s no prosecuting authority that’s going to step in to protect these conscripts, so regardless of what the law says they can be used for anything Putin wants.
Putin personally promises conscripts won’t be sent into combat and that when it happened previously it was a mistake. This is still questionable cause, e.g. sunken ship Moskwa had conscripts on it cause it didn’t officially participate in the operation. I’m sure AA groups or ammo depots guards in Belgorod also do not participate in anything.
So people might be more relaxed about being under a regular conscription. This is the point, the conscripts won’t be sent anywhere, but the officers will do anything to turn conscripts into contract soldiers, which they can legally try to do after 6 months.
ShivaX
21685
I assume that declaring of basically the entire theater of operations in Ukraine as “Russia” is also a loophole they can use if they’re so inclined.
ShivaX
21686
Agreed.
It’s not like we aren’t going to spend the money anyway. That it’s actually being used for good is a the only change.
You don’t need a loophole if you’re just breaking a promise though.
Personally I find it interesting, and it’s relevant to how things play out in Russia.
Russia does have a legal system, and Putin does have to pretend that it’s functional.
I’ve also seen people claim that sending conscripts to war is illegal, which according to ISW it isn’t, so that obviously paints a wrong picture.
General question: all of the Russian TV clips I’ve seen where Ukrainians are called subhuman, and with outrageous fairly murdery genocidal statements - is this like the Fox News of Russia or state TV? Just like I wouldn’t want anyone to form a view of the US through Fox, I’d love to be educated on this as well.
