We can at least acknowledge that at least some of your statements have been proved wrong using sources you presented to us as reliable?
> What you see is mobilization areas, they might have old shit, but the first lot of 300k was dudes that had done service in the last 2 years, so little if no training required → shipped.
I don’t think so, this source says that tranche of reservists were already called up in April and have been fighting for months already. Around 90% of those being called up now have probably had no refresher training for around 5 years and have never had large scale unit or inter-arm refresher training.
I think that sums it up very well.
It’s hard to gauge if the people will break, or what that will look like, but I think the number that is going to decide the war is how many soldiers the Ukrainians are losing, and how their combat power is affected by those losses.
If Milley is right and it’s 1:1, then I’m worried. I hope we have contingency plans to send some serious weaponry down there if things start to turn.
If the Ukrainians keep pushing them back, I think it’s more likely than not that Putin will resort to general mobilization. If the Russians are successful in locking the fronts with what they have, they would probably opt to negotiate instead.
In any case, I think Putin would rather risk popular discontent, than risk being defeated. The siloviki seem like more of a threat than anything else.
And then there are the nukes. A lot of people assume it’s a bluff, but Putin has said a lot of things in the past that many of us fully believed to be bluffs, and a lot of those things have proven to be completely serious, so there are a lot of things we’ll learn this year.
Just like Covid deniers, citing a source from an internet armchair person and then accusing everyone of not being balanced when we produce expert views gets you very short shrift.
I’m trying to understand how to tell the difference between someone who consistently regurgitates Russian propaganda because they want to, and someone who consistently regurgitates Russian propaganda because they don’t know any better. I’m sure there is a difference, but I can’t read minds.
One thing to figure as well is that for the ancient world’s poor, army service actually gave them a much better chance at wealth and material prosperity in general than, well, just about anything else they could do. Risky, yeah, and harsh conditions and all, but most ancient armies when actually fighting each other relied on loot and pillage to compensate their troops. Pretty decent attraction maybe if the alternative is wallowing in pig shit.
Foreign Affairs has a slew of speculative articles on what might happen. Haven’t read 'em yet though.
JonRowe
21979
Understood. I am sure there are plenty of people in the Russian military who are there to loot and pillage and generally are bad people. But it is important to remember that in any war, the large majority of the boots on the ground just don’t want to be there, and want it to be over. They’ve been lied to on why they want to be there, you saw that a lot in the start of the war. “We thought they would welcome us!”
Also, the whole “your life is shit, and joining the military will make it better” propaganda is what the USA does as well. “Join the Army! Get Strong! Get a College Education!” The Army, in the U.S., has fairly similar recruiting tactics. The USA is just better about being coy about it. Putting higher education as a reward for someone who otherwise would not be able to afford it is pretty much exactly what you are talking about.
Timex
21980
I dunno man, I recall seeing videos of them dragging folks into vans and stuff and picking them up off the streets to get sent to Ukraine.
Yeah, they have their draft plans. They also trick people by saying that you can come into a recruitment center just to update your info, and then you never come back.
What I mean is they don’t actually care about upholding the law. If you get the summons or run away from those folks dragging you into the recruitment center you’re fine. I’ve heard some lawyers say that even if you’re forcibly sent somewhere they still need you to sign a contract and if you refuse all you risk is getting fined, but they supposedly don’t even do that. But I understand in this case people are forced to sign anything. There was a single court case where recruiters sued a guy who refused to serve and it was just canceled.
So it’s not like people weren’t coerced or tricked into this war. But it wasn’t the choice of go to war or flee the country.
KevinC
21982
You just demonstrated why you’re getting hostility. Why do you continue to assume that we’re a bunch of credulous people blinded by what we want to believe?
You’ve repeatedly been shoveling Russian propaganda into this thread. You have repeatedly been asked to provide analysis on your claims rather than just asserting they are true. For example, being asked to provide analysis that Russia did bring a million soldiers to the front and how they might be supplied and equipped. At best, what you respond with (other than accuse us of being blinded by bias) is “that’s the easy part”, which is an actual quote from you. Nevermind Russia was already struggling with supply with the forces they did have.
The other thing that you have been doing that has been pissing me off is constantly misrepresenting sources. How many times have you been caught posting a video that supposedly backs up your assertions only to find it did no such thing, only after wasting 30+ minutes watching it? It has happened repeatedly.
So you can fuck off with the victim routine. Start engaging people in open and honest dialog and you’ll find the responses you get will improve. I for one am frankly tired of your disingenuous shit.
schurem
21983
Have some bonechilling propaganda then. If this doesn’t move you, you’re dead.
https://youtu.be/2xzv02sf6BI
Janster
21984
I was, I honestly think Russia will continue to recruit to the front, almost indefinitely, Putin has no incentives to stop whatsoever, so he will continue until Russia breaks or Ukraine does.
Artillery is the main doctrine of Russia, of course they have shells and will produce shells, Perun has their production at 1,7 mill shells a year, but that is undoubtably being upscaled and imported.
Their pace might slow, but they will not run out of ammo.
If you go outside the ukraine friendly places, you will see there exist a different narrative…that’s VERY scary.
One is, Russia has about 13 000 cas, excluding Luhansk and Donetsk troops…who they don’t care about anyway.
Ukraine has 100k, and thats confirmed on all levels…
So, is Ukraine doing well…that depends…
KevinC
21985
Cas is casualties, in this context? I don’t care about online narratives, but what sources can you provide that Russian casualties are only at 13,000? That is vastly off from any analysis or estimates I’ve seen. And maybe those are wrong! But I have some questions: why did Russia mobilize if Ukraine is suffering 10:1 casualties? Why did Russia withdraw from Kherson? Why were they routed in Kharkiv? Where are the major offensive successes over the past six months?
If Russia is attritting Ukrainian forces at near a 10:1 ratio, I feel like we should be seeing those things. Especially given the population disparity between the two countries. So why haven’t we?
To be fair to Janster, he isn’t saying 10:1. He’s saying Russia/Putin doesn’t care about nine of the 10.
Janster
21987
Donetsk and Luhanks militias has lost a ton of people…they are almost decimated.
KevinC
21988
Sure, but that should mean the actual Russian military is mostly intact. So why have we seen routs in Kharkiv, a withdrawal from Kherson, and a failure to produce any results via offensives?
I can’t believe there are people who haven’t put that guy on ignore yet. Stop shitting up the thread by replying to his nonsense.
We don’t have to do this.
Can you paint to the source for this? And if it’s a 30+ minute video, an approximate timecode would be appreciated.
