22192

I doubt Putin will personally outlast Ukraine, so the questions for me are:

  1. what happens when Ukr takes back all it’s pre-'14 territory, but Russia keeps fighting across the border
    or
  2. who will take over as Putin’s successor, and what war plan or peace plan do they choose when they take over
22193

I’m am extremely surprised by this and wonder if it’s really true. Call of Duty cosplayers aren’t in the armed forces because they don’t want to actually be in the field.

22194

About the only thing that seems to make sense to me would be for Putin to depart one way or another and a successor then blames everything on the now conveniently gone ex-leader. That allows Russia to agree to terms that would not unthinkable for Putin, by giving them an out to think “yes, this is shitty but it’s Putin’s fault, the bastard!” rather than “we got whupped.”

And even that might be tough to swallow, for a chunk of the ruling clique in Russia, but I bet with enough baksheesh liberally dispensed it just might. And as distasteful as it might be, bribing a bunch of criminal oligarchs to essentially end a war on political terms that are about as good as one could get would be worth it I think.

22195

Yes, it’s pretty clear this is Putin’s war, and it’s Putin’s political apparatus that is sustaining it, and that removing Putin would almost certainly end the war. Other than the pundits on the payroll it’s unlikely anyone actually wants the war in Russia. But actually removing Putin sooner rather than later is probably the most sound bet, as the longer the war drags on the more support for it will build inertia in the Russian political system as a kind of social sunk cost.

22196

I think this radically understates the hold that Putin’s revanchist ideology has on the entirety of the Russian political class. Any foreseeable Putin successor will prosecute the war with at least as much fervor. There needs to be a revolution of some sort in Russia for the political will for the war to subside.

22197

But what people don’t understand is that the political class are essentially ‘boyars’ created by Putin. They don’t have any legitimacy when Putin is gone. The entire political system in Russia is a kind of shambling Potemkin village, except that it’s not meant for Catherine the Great to fool her, it’s made by Catherine the Great to fool the Russians and the outsiders. Putin has murdered enough people that those that are left are Molotov-esque apparatchiks.

22198
22199

No, you’re right. But I ask myself “Who would turn down several companies of NATO personnel if they were in a fight?”.

It’s not without complications - local knowledge, cultural differences, language - but they’re going to be fighting, and these guys know how to do it. I think the rest is manageable.

Right. I think the clearest indication I’ve seen that they aren’t unconcerned about manpower is the fact that they’re only training recruits for 5 weeks before shipping them out.

I don’t think that would be the case if they were just sitting pretty. For reference, Afghan National Army received 16 weeks.

22200

They’re trying not to lose.

22201

Well this guy did the right thing but he might never be able to return now.

22202

What is this video even for? That guy doesn’t seem to know anything. He’s just another YouTube rando.

22203

In January 1942, the US government froze the sale of consumer vehicles and diverted pretty much its entire automotive industry to building the things required for war. Then there was the Willow Run plant built by Ford in Spring of 1941 to build Liberator bombers, by 1945 they were churning out one Liberator every hour…

22204
22205

I think it is inevitable that NATO tanks will come to Ukraine:

22206

What is he afraid of, exactly? What is Russia going to do, shut off the gas? Or is this about domestic politics?

22207

Nukes. That’s the whole reason all of NATO has been gradually increasing arms aid to Ukraine as opposed to flooding the area with equipment and troops.

22208

I don’t see how being first or following Britain donating 10 tanks makes a difference in the nuke equation, though.

22209

PSB (Putin Sucks, But)

Russian tanks on the river Bravo is a scenario that would scare Americans. Russia is suffering from poor morale. Why help them shape the narrative. Slowly boil the frog and you take wind out of their sails

22210

I understand why NATO has concerns about escalation and sending tanks. What I am trying to understand is how it makes any difference for Scholz if they are the first to provide Leopards or if they do it after Britain sends a token amount. I understand the general concern about escalation, just not Scholtz’s reluctance to be first. That’s why I was wondering if it was domestic concerns, because if Russia lobbed nukes over tanks does it really matter that Britain sent 10 whole Challengers first?

22211

Gotcha.