Timex
22212
Russia is going to bitch and moan about literally anything the West does, and they’re gonna rattle their nukes to try and stop it.
Fuck Russia. If they want to start a nuclear war, the idea that we could have avoided such an irrational action by somehow bowing to their threats is foolish.
Oh man, we HAD to nuke other countries because you gave the people we were invading tanks to defend themselves!
Nah man, fuck Russia.
Aceris
22213
At the moment Scholz’s line is “noone else is sending tanks”.
Now, the truth is the “standard” western export MBT is the Leopard. There aren’t really spare Leclercs and certainly not Challengers to send, and the Abrahms, while its a great tank and there are a lot of them the turbine engine has a much higher logistics load (which would be particularly bad for Ukraine). And Germany can block other nations from sending Leopards (and reportedly has done so, although the details are always sketchy).
The thinking is presumably that if France sends the AMX light TDs and the UK sends a few challengers that will strengthen the hand of other members of the German government who want to counter Scholz’s “noone is sending tanks” narrative.
That is interesting, for sure. Five weeks does seem low, though I wonder if that is just basic type training and the recruits are then gradually brought up to speed in more operational conditions? Or are they having to throw these nearly raw recruits into combat ops immediately?
I don’t know. I’ve read a couple of news stories that describe the training generally, but it’s like you said, a lot of the facts are not publicly available. I hope they aren’t being sent to the front after five weeks.
I assume they have reserve units, and units that need to be reconstituted, and it would make sense to send them back there and train as much as they can until they’re needed.
KevinC
22217
They’re both outside of Russia, thankfully.
And large parts of the front are quiet. Any unit stationed in Kherson Oblast or the Belorussian border has got plenty of time to integrate new personnel with very little risk.
Ex-SWoo
22219
total guess, but I’m guessing Germany wants to position itself as the most pro-Russian Western power to help thaw the economic relationship whenever the war ends so they don’t want to do anything that makes them a ‘leader’ in ramping up the war efforts.
Aceris
22220
There’s certainly a very influential faction within the SDP, with strong ties to Scholz, that believes this.
However it’s not universal in the SDP, and certainly not universal in the government, so to say its what “Germany” wants is maybe a little inaccurate.
KevinC
22221
Looks like Russian forces were repelled in Soledar but they’ve launched another large assault. Per CNN’s live update thread:
schurem
22222
Germany has (imo) very sound historical reason to be as unagressive towards Russia as they possibly can.
Houngan
22223
Flip side is that Russia has pretty good reasons, if you ignore 1945-2020 to be aggressive to Germany. This constant stream of Nazi calling is obviously their Causus Belli.
Aceris
22224
They also have very sound historical reasons to be as fervent an opponent of neo fascism as they possibly can.
But that’s not as good for business.
Grifman
22225
Well, this time they have the rest of Europe and North American on their side, not two front war :)
And I liked this Leopard propaganda poster
Dejin
22227
Chancellor Scholz seems to be perfectly happy being in bed with totalitarian governments as long as it makes business interests happy. He overrode objections of quite a few members of his own government, including his own security services, to make deals with China on Hamburg Port and seems set to do more of them.
The guy really seems to be close to a perfect example of someone who’s interested in money over all other concerns.
Well, remember the marriage of iron and rye! Germany has a long tradition of subordinating everything else to the interests of the capitalists, be they Junkers or industrialists!
KevinC
22230
UK MoD believe Russian forces likely control most of Soledar, but there is still fighting. They speculate that one reason for the importance of the salt mines is they may be used to infiltrate enemy lines (in either direction).
Analysts continue to say there’s little to no strategic value in the region.
MoD summary and article:
Have you guys been over what the Russians could be doing instead? Aside from fucking off and going back home, obviously.
I’m interested when analysts say “These salt mines are dumb, this is pointless”.
Is it because they’re wasting too many of their resources, or because there are weaker points, or should they be going for more focused offensives like the Ukrainians?
There must be someone wargaming this somewhere, who isn’t a YouTube rando, and actually has an idea.
