22492

According to a book I read about civil wars and democracy, The median time for civil war/insurrections since 1950 is about 8 years before one side has a decisive advantage and another 3 to 4 years before a true peace settlement. Iran Iraq was 8 year, Syria 11 years and counting, Sri Lanka 26 years. Similar lengths for the Russian wars.

I see no reason for us to be overly optimistic on how quickly this will end.

22493

I think it’s a reasonable viewpoint. It’s possible that Ukraine takes back its territory this year and reaches some sort of peace settlement, but it’s also possible that we are still just at the start of what is basically WW2.5. Major European wars tend to take 4-5 years to resolve, so there’s a decent chance that we’re still here commenting in this thread in 2027. The wise course would be to make the investments in new artillery shell factories now rather than risk regretting it 2-3 years down the line.

This guy gets it:

22494

That’s basically what Perun repeats in every single video. Can Ukraine outlast Russia? The answer depends almost entirely on decisions made in other countries. But if the other countries decide to continue supporting, they very likely can.

22495

I was listening to one of the War on the Rocks Podcasts" with Michael Kofman and a couple of other Russian experts. They were talking about what might happen if Putin was replaced. One of the things they mentioned was that Gorbachev came in to office in 1985, having previously been on record as saying that the Soviet-Afghan war was a mistake, and it was still four years before he got them out of that war.

So if Putin gets replaced there’s some chance he gets replaced by another horrible leader who wants to continue the war. But even if he gets replaced by someone that doesn’t think the war is a good idea, that still doesn’t mean Russia will immediately withdraw.

22496

The only way Russia gives out is if their economy gives out , or their population gives out.

Those things seem a long time from coming.

We’re going to have to give Ukraine what they need militarily, which is more than we’re giving now, in order to break the Russians.

Agree fully with Rothda on this, and apparently Ted Lieu.

22497

He is a freelance journalist/historian who focuses on Russian Propaganda. There is a link to his site with articles he has written on the subject. I mean, he is stating an opinion, and clearly has a lot of history researching Russia, and writing about it.

22498

ISW predicts that the Russians will attempt an offensive within the next 6 months, and draft another 650.000 troops. They’re also keeping mobiks behind the lines for longer before sending them up, and trying to boost the defense industry.

I still don’t understand why they keep dancing around a general mobilization. Maybe they are actually concerned about unrest.

Ukrainian intelligence reported that the Kremlin seeks to raise the number of military personnel to two million by an unspecified date (from about 1.35 million personnel as of September 2022), while Western intelligence officials noted that Russian military command is in “serious preparations” for a potential second wave of mobilization.

Some Kremlin officials have begun discussing proposals to expand eligibility protocols for conscription, active mobilization, and the mobilization reserve, while Russian state structures are attempting to resolve past problems by issuing mobilization summonses.

22499

More meat for the grinder. What a waste of so many lives.

22500

Have you ever tried to convince someone a belief the held - that was foundational to their identity - was incorrect?

“Russia is mighty. The world fears our might. Ukraine is weak. Ukraine is Russia, has always been Russia, and wants nothing more than to be Russia.” Yeah.

22501

“Ah, thanks to your clever arguments I can see that I have always supported pure evil and played my part in its rise, and now I’m unable to disrupt it but can live with the knowledge that I live in hell I helped to create, with no hope in sight”, said no one ever.

22502

Probably should’ve quoted this too, it’s the final paragraph:

Russian forces remain dangerous, and Ukraine requires sustained support. Ukraine requires further and timely Western support to adequately prepare for the Russian COAs for 2023 outlined above. Ukraine’s Western allies will need to continue supporting Ukraine in the long run even if a Russian decisive action in 2023 fails, as the Kremlin is nonetheless preparing for a protracted war.

The West must continue its support to Ukraine’s efforts to defeat Russia’s invasion — and must do so quickly. The Russian military, as the saying goes, retains a vote on the course of the war despite its weaknesses and is actively setting conditions for major operations as the war enters its second year.

Russian COAs (courses of action) are:

COA 1: A major Russian offensive, most likely in the Luhansk Oblast area.
COA 2: A Russian defensive operation to defeat and exploit a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Or a combination of the two.

I think the short of that is that sending tanks in 2024 will be pretty inadequate.

22503

I hope that Biden, who I am guessing will not run again in 2024 (though I could be wrong on that) will use that comparative freedom from the need to suck up to people to push hard for increased support to Ukraine. I also hope that the US and Europe will become ever more convinced of the need to defeat the Russian invasion of a neighboring state, even at the cost of risking escalation. While continued Russian missile attacks on civilian targets is probably helping to prop up support for Ukraine, I worry that a combination of timidity about possible Russian retaliation and sheer crisis fatigue might create a softening of support for Kyiv and a growing acceptance of a Russian victory.

I think such a course would be in the long term a disaster for everyone, but I am skeptical of the long-range vision of, well, any leaders out there. Of course, from Ukraine’s perspective, there is no choice but to keep fighting. Hell, if I was running Ukraine, I’d be working secretly if necessary to figure out ways to get my hands on WMDs as a last-ditch response to being abandoned by the West. At that point, really, as a Ukrainian I would not care one iota whether striking at the invaders sparked a global nuclear war, really.

22504

Well, its clear Russia is going for the long haul, at least Putin wants to, they are not going to accept a defeat so there is that.
The question is what diplomatic solution can be perceived, Ukraine certainly can’t just keep this going, it does incur a horrendous cost on the nation, so I guess they might have to face a settlement of sorts eventually unless western support enables them to outright win.

I remain pretty confident Russia will escalate and send ever-increasing amounts of fresh troops to the front.

22505

Why do you think they can’t keep this going? As far as I’m aware there’s no appetite for concessions to Russia at all - and the Ukrainians know what that means in terms of attacks on civilian towns and cities.

22506

The problem with that is that a “settlement” means no Ukraine. It would mean a total absorption of Ukraine into Russia. At best you would see a rump state with a captive subservient puppet regime, and the existing Ukrainian government imprisoned or murdered. In short, Ukraine would cease to exist for all practical purposes. While that might be preferrable to, well, death, it’s a hard sell in any case other than total military destruction. Which is why I suspect Ukraine has no intention of going gently into the night.

22507

For a settlement to be worth considering, it has to preserve the large majority of the Ukrainian population, as well as enough territory and resources, to form an independent Ukraine safe from Russian annexation and free of Russian control. And I mean “safe from Russian aggression” in a major serious way: membership in NATO or security arrangements of equivalent power.

And that’s an absolute total unequivocal non-negotiable minimum, not a starting point. Until a deal of at least that level is on the table, there is no real negotiation to be had. I can see situations where Russia might end up with control of Crimea and/or plebiscites (real, neutral plebiscites) in Donbas, as long as the remainder of Ukraine is firmly secure and independent, and Ukraine has real protection against both Russian pressure and Russian aggression. But right now I haven’t seen any kind of overture even close to providing Ukraine with the real security which is a minimum.

So for now, there is no real path to a diplomatic solution. As long as Russian treats all serious security arrangements for Ukraine as existential threats to Russia, then there is no path for negotiations to follow. Russia has to allow the possibility for Ukraine to secure its security, either via NATO or via “don’t call it NATO” or the equivalent. Until that becomes a meaningful option, there is no settlement to be had.

Unless of course by “settlement” you mean “capitulation”.

22508

I really don’t disagree with this though they are reluctant to mobilize too much too quickly especially given the trouble they had with the initial 300k (of which, by all accounts, only half have made it to the front)

It’s unclear how quickly Wagner is recruiting. Some say Wagner has lost a quarter of their men and cant really replace them.

The Ukrainians however are in a fully mobilized existential struggle. There is every reason to believe that Russian morale will crack before Ukraine’s does, as long as we can keep them materially supplied.

22509

And agreed, any peace deal has to include absolutely ironclad security guarantees for Ukraine. Which of course Russia will not accept.

22510

The only way to a peace deal Ukraine will accept right now, is if Nato guarantees their existence afterward, and for Russia then it will be a matter of gains…

If say the entire West drops the sanctions and accepts Crimea as Russian, plus Ukraine guarantees water and power to Crimea…

I guess thats something, but right now, Ukraine is locked in something that looks like my old EU4 games, where I’ve got heavy warscore losses, but my army is intact and I am hoping for a win in the end…
Might happen, but usually I’m pretty ruined by the end.

22511

I understand what you’re saying with regards to the steep price Ukraine is paying, but the alternative is submitting to a nation committing genocide on your people. That sort of thing provides pretty powerful motivation to fight until the bitter end.

Ukraine also had treaties with Russia guaranteeing their territorial integrity, so I can’t see them willing to surrender in order to obtain more guarantees either, unless they’ve suffered total defeat. At which point it really won’t be a settlement anymore, but outright defeat.