Silent heroes, or “this will probably go wrong, let’s not publicize our involvement” back when everyone was sure Ukraine would fall in a matter of days / weeks.
Grifman
22653
There’s nothing in the article that comes close to hinting at that.
I’m a grumpy old man, but no one has invited me into a kleptocratic cabal. Damn it, I want my share of the grift!
schurem
22655
Get yourself a membership of the republican party. You’ll be president in no time flat.
Or rather, don’t. I’d hate to see competent people waste their talents on that party ;)
A bunch of Ukraine’s supporters have been much quieter about what they deliver than say the US or the UK. The OSINT equipment counters regularly seem to point out photos e.g. a Finish mortar or armored vehicle that nobody knew had been given to Ukraine until those photos showed up. For that matter, the US and UK have been selectively quiet about some weapons (e.g. HARM and Brimstone) where we hadn’t known they were there until Russian stuff started blowing up.
All I mean is, in the early days of the War, when the common knowledge was that sure, Ukraine is putting up a valiant fight, but Russia WILL win, just a matter of waiting the few required days / weeks at most months, because big bad Bear is going to do what it wants, and NATO will have to treat them as near peer, being quiet about helping Ukraine would be smart for countries that aren’t fully and very visibly in the “Fuck Putin” club.
Very different from now, when making up excuses not to give Ukraine military aid is not a positive look.
But only if they’re face eating Leopards.
So, it appears some major things are happening?
First, we get something called the Talinn Pledge:
Pretty detailed donation list.
But then also there’s this report:
Which basically sounds like Baltics will be sending Leopards whether Germany approves of it or not.
And then there’s this:
Scholz’s reticence on Leopards appears to be about to come under a great test.
So this is what causes all those falls from buildings.
If Germany outright says “I forbid you to send Leopards” and the rest of NATO sends Leopards they’re going to look awfully ineffective. So, yeah, “We never uttered such phrase!”
It is hard to imagine that Angela Merkel’s Germany would ever end up being perceived as a weak, and ineffectual country, whose demands are ignored.
It sounds like, more and more, tomorrow Ukraine is gonna get their Leopards.
Timex
22665
I mean, what exactly is the threat here? That Germany’s not gonna sell them more if they give them to Ukraine?
Hey guys, the US arms depot is always open for business. We got the hottest stuff on the street.
abrandt
22666
Yep, Germany has already shown that their reaction to countries illegally sending tanks into Ukraine isn’t really all that scary. So why not get in on that? Not like any of those countries are going to be terribly interested in buying new weapons from Germany anyway after this whole thing.
I’m no expert on it, but it does kind of feel like a whole lot of countries to the east of Germany have made something like that exact calculation.
Poland is buying South Korean tanks because South Korea is transferring the tech to Poland and Poland will gain MBT manufacturing capability. Poland’s never buying Leopards again.
I’ve been holding out for the last few weeks for the Ukraine contact group meeting tomorrow, where I would expect the matter of tanks to be decided for good. All the stuff happening over the last few days seems like political theatre to add some pressure and skew the outcome of that meeting a little. But my feeling is that Ukraine would have been getting Leopards either way.
KevinC
22670
You’re in Germany aren’t you, Bella? I’m really curious what perspective any German Qt3ers can provide to this whole thing. From the outside, Germany’s support for Ukraine has been very frustrating from the start. They seem to always come around and end up providing a good amount of support, but they always have to make themselves the punching bag first.
Dejin
22671
If anyone is interested, Perun actually has a full length video where he talks about why Poland is working with South Korea and what the implications might be (sounds like @Woolen_Horde has either watched it or is following all this pretty closely). IIRC one of the ideas is that Poland will gain the capability to build tanks under South Korean license, but a version specialized for Europe (instead of the original version which is designed for Korea’s more mountainous terrain). It’s a win for Poland which has manufacturing capabilities but has been more geared for Russian style vehicles and it’s a win for South Korea, since it helps them get into the European defense sector.
