22692

Which is why the Germans started with helmets.

22693

Reminds me of Victor Suvorov’s Icebreaker. He argued that Stalin wanted to start war with Germany himself because the weapons deployed on the border with Germany in 1941 were “offensive”.

Russia currently bombs Ukraine with Anti-Air rockets I understand. Hard to argue what’s defensive here.

22694

Anti-Nazi forces of Good proudly raise their sledgehammers (used to smash people’s heads on video) to the sky. Can there be any doubt of their righteousness and sainthood?

I see stuff like this as much more horrible and irredeemable than the murder itself. Like, any fighting army probably has its share of atrocities. But this endorsement on the highest level without any pretend - there wasn’t even any investigation about the murder - is complete destruction of any law or civility. You know that if you murder somebody and get to jail you can enlist into Wagner. And there they might let you crush people’s skulls with a sledgehammer. I’ve seen persuasive arguments that this is the worst part of it all for Russia: even if tomorrow Ukraine surrenders and the West removes the sanctions Russia’s law enforcement is in shambles. It’s very hard to evaluate now cause the free press is destroyed and reporting this stuff can get you in jail (and not a good kind of jail that Wagner recruits from). And of course it’s not like Russian law was in a good shape before all this.

22695

It’s 100% speculation on my part that leads me to post this in this thread, but it seems awfully suspicious. Especially after the gas pipeline explosion last year.

22696

So Scholz has his new defense secretary declare that Germany will “check” its Leopard stocks. Screw this, time for FDP and Greens to end the coalition and have an election.

22697

Cezary Przepiorka, deputy captain of the Port of Gdansk, told Polish media that only one of the men had formal identification, and the phone numbers offered by the divers were either incorrect or non-functional.

“Nothing suspicious here, Lou. Let them go.”

22698

Leopards are wild animals! They are known to run away!

22699

Question: Are Wagner guys literally a mercenary group? I.e. not protected by the Geneva conventions?

22700

That’s a complex question.

Mercenaries are forbidden by Russian law. But they’re allowed to operate in Russia. They even have their own Wagner Center building in Peterburg. So they can’t be mercenaries! They’re… whatever is needed at the moment.

22701

I mean, everyone is protected by the Geneva conventions, as they are written pretty broadly to guarantee basic human rights to all involved in a conflict, even those not technically defined as “enemy combatants”

22702

Heavy losses on both sides in Bakhmut:

22703

Their assessment of Bakhmut’s strategic importance seems a lot different than other analysis I’ve seen, I wonder what the differences they see are.

As awful as the casualties are, if Russia is “throwing soldiers forward like cannon fodder” at entrenched positions, if you’re Ukraine don’t you take that trade (I’m not saying they’re arguing they shouldn’t)? I guess it depends on how defensive their positions are, but that’s a whole lot of degraded capability for Russia and the alternative is to set all those troops loose to cause trouble elsewhere along the line. Places where you’re not dug in.

22704

Germany has always been afraid of Russia and their ability to throw soldiers into the meat grinder.

22705

How much of the Leopard problem might be the fear of pulling the rug and revealing the actual numbers and status of those in some of the potential donors?
For example back in the summer, Spain kinda offered those that we have in storage, then retracted the offer with vague references to their poor state of conservation. Given that our army isn’t inmune to corruption and has been known to excessively cut corners in the past, I wonder how many of our 200 on paper Leopards are actually capable of running.

22706

Yeah, the excerpt seems a little trite: If they take Bakhmut, it would allow them to advance further inland. Sure… but that’s the case with pretty much any advance forward, right?

I happen to be listening to the audiobook version of Rick Atkinson’s “Day of Battle”, which is an overview of the 1943 Italian Campaign in WWII, told mostly from the Allied side. The book is sobering on many levels, but I can’t help but see parallels with the Ukraine invasion. Bear with me.

In Italy, the US and British forces were almost painfully inept – they threw their men wastefully at objectives that were questionable at best; the coordination between service arms and concentrations of troops was sparse, often counter-productive, and often even adversarial; and their troop quality was uneven at best.

On the other side, their German opponents were better led, better equipped, better trained, and had the advantage of the defensive stance and interior supply lines.

Obviously the analogy falls apart in many ways, but the thing that gives me pause is that while the Allies started out as hapless bumblers who lost tens of thousands of men needlessly, they learned very quickly. They adapted, found better leaders, and learned from their mistakes. It took them the batter part of a year.

It doesn’t SEEM like the Russians are adapting at the same rate here. At least I sure hope they aren’t.

22707

This war has certainly revealed the shabby state of equipment in a few countries. I could see that being an issue for Germany in sending their own Leopards but it wouldn’t explain their resistance to allowing Poland, Latvia, and other allies to send theirs.

22708

I love that book series. Hopefully one difference here is that the German’s were slowly getting their industrial base worn down and weren’t able to replace their equipment at the same right as the Allies were. In this case the situation is hopefully reversed.

It would be as if the Allies were grinding away, but didn’t have America’s endless supply of Shermans and other equipment. And the Germans were getting more and more and better equipment arriving on the frontlines.

22709

Yeah, this is why when someone posts about things that they think Russia is doing or will do, what I want to see is some evidence of work being done to effect that. If Russia is to be more successful than they have been it’s going to require significant changes and there will be evidence of them taking place.

Take their logistics issues. Addressing that is going to take a lot of work. So if Russia mobilizes their entire economy and starts cranking out thousand of trucks? Or if there are major engineering efforts to extend rail lines, or a major change in strategy? Those are things that could point to Russia getting better, and that would be of real concern.

22710

Poland just announced the training and equipping of a Ukrainian armored brigade by March:

22711

Germany announces huge military aid package for Ukraine - but no tanks - yet: