22712

I’m assuming even if the fighting had driven most people away from Bakhmut and Soledar and reduced the place to ruins from small arms, the urban landscape would still provide more protection to troops than being trapped inside if one side decided to just flatten the place with rockets and artillery? I guess the fact Russia hasn’t made that work yet either answers my question… still, just feels there has to be a better way of taking advantage of bleeding Russia given they want something fairly useless.

22713

Russia’s sending hundreds of thousands. Ukraine’s got to take that body blow somewhere, unfortunately.

What Ukraine needs tanks for is maneuver and encirclement. Hope you guys are ready for a rollercoaster few months, but we’re likely to see some Russian breakthroughs and loss of not only the territory retaken but additional territory before the new brigades come on line in late spring early summer.

22714

Yeah, everything I’ve seen of the current state of Russia and their military tells me it would be way harder for them to adapt to in a similar way. The command structure of the military doesn’t allow for flexibility or encourage the type of thought you’d need to make major changes. And the government isn’t going to be able to make the type of changes needed to get the military to change either(in fact, I’d argue the military could want to change and Putin would stop it). I’ve said it a million times, it’s rotten from the top and that makes it so that the top will not be able to magically decide to fix the problem. Putin has spent decades making this mess, fixing it would essentially be admitting failure and throwing away his work. Not going to happen.

22715

Putin is hoping for a repeat of WW2 - he’s been preparing for it for at least a decade. Essentially where ordinary soldiers who are brave and patriotic “take up the cup” and figure out solutions on the ground, while the weak and stupid and cowardly first year troops die in droves. Soviet Union did also figure out how to work with a gun to the back of its head at all times - eventually they just accepted that was the normal way of things and learned to work with it and around it.

22716
22717

And I don’t doubt that there is small tactical stuff they are figuring out. Clever ways of using drones for sure. But ultimately I don’t think they can fundamentally be expected to move away from just trying to brute force their way to more territory with more bodies and more artillery. I don’t expect they’ll figure out how to use airpower, precision strikes, maneuver, or whatever to “shape the battlefield” and make huge gains quickly and with few losses.

Russia still has a huge manpower advantage, and all else being equal they’d be able to brute force their way to victory most assuredly. But unlike in WW2, they won’t be able to rely on out equipping their opponent as long as the West stands behind Ukraine.

That said, the lines could keep going the wrong way until the spring muds. I’ve seen very little indication on why Ukraine isn’t pushing anywhere. Based on the lack of reports of their really nice equipment showing up at the current hotspots, I assume this is very much on purpose and not necessarily a bad sign for the war overall. Likely Ukraine is building up a force for their next offensive(s) and also biding their time as Russia exhausts themselves throwing more and more bodies at Bakhmut. At the cost of a lot of Ukrainian blood, to be clear. I doubt that’s lost on anyone making those decisions so they must think it’s worth that price to hold back the real quality for now.

22718

That’s what I mean and keep saying - if Russia sends 300,000 troops, you’re going to have to absorb that attack somewhere. Pulling back only means you fight them 10 KM back or sideways.

Hopefully Ukraine is preparing some stronger defensive lines a few clicks back that they can man and absorb larger attacks with fewer losses - we all know the Russian strategy now. Ukraine is a huge country though and they can’t building a network of concrete trenches across the whole front line. There’s also the real threat that Russia will annex - flip the switch with Belarus and invade directly from the north. I think there’s little doubt Putin entirely intends to annex Belarus directly, it’s just a matter of when and how. Had Ukraine quickly fallen Belarus would have been strongly encouraged to join up again while the joining was good.

22719

They are slowly pushing the lines in the north, around Kreminna and points north of it. Russia has no defense in depth - if they can break the lines at Kreminna then they’ll be forced to pull back and Ukraine can grab another huge swath of territory.

22720

If it were up to me, I’d use that armored brigade made of Leopard 2s and Bradleys and cut south from Zaporizha in order to fuck the orcs hard. Then cut eastwards along the coast towards Mariupol.

22721

Yeah, sorry if it came across as me arguing you weren’t saying that. I was kind of just continuing my reasoning from the last post about the idea that Russia would adapt in a major way and why I don’t see that happening. And then continued with why I don’t think Putin’s hope of a repeat of what happened in WW2 is in the cards either.

All those billions of dollars in donations will be worth it if it results in a bunch of Ukrainian armored vehicles running wild in the south.

22722

Yea, I wasn’t arguing but agreeing as well!

22723

I imagine you waving a sword out of the top of a Leopard going top speed blaring Rammstein’s Feuer Frei! (I’m also pretty sure this is exactly what the German government doesn’t want to see!)

22724

Cut off Crimea. Russia isn’t going to be able to supply enough troops over a fucked up and in-repair bridge.

I think Russia losing Crimea might be a real blow, politically. So far, Russia has lost territory that they gained in 2022. I think there’s a possibility that losing Crimea would be seen as a big setback, since it’s losing important territory that has been de facto part of Russia for almost a decade.

Seems a lot easier to cut off and liberate Crimea than pushing Russia closest to their borders where their supply lines are shortest. I’m just a dickhead typing nonsense a half a world away from the theater, though, so it’s very likely that I’m completely wrong. :)

22725

Attacking Crimea means pushing Russian soldiers back into their supply lines and main bases of operations.

Attacking in the north may be technically pushing them towards their own territory, but it’s territory that isn’t built up, doesn’t have great supply line, and doesn’t have major military bases. Most of the Ukrainian territory isn’t densely settled - lot easier to grab huge swaths of map.

22726

I am greatly looking forward to the mindfucks the gogol general staff us going to play on the orcs. Are going to strike here? There? Psych! We striking here, told you we would! Stupid rashists!

22727
22728

Mercenaries definitely do NOT have the same protections as actual soldiers under the Geneva conventions.

Mercenaries who engage in combat operations can be tried and executed as criminals and murderers. They are specifically not considered legitimate combatants.

22729

Why wasn’t this done when the war started?

22730

Atkinson’s books are indeed good. The analogy between the Allies and Russia though, as noted, is perhaps only skin deep. The biggest reason is culture. The Commonwealth and American armies in WWII were the products of flawed but honestly democratic societies, and while composed largely of conscripts by 1943 were the heirs of long professional military traditions, albeit in different ways. The Americans, too, were the products of the pre-eminent industrial society one might argue, a society that had perfected the modern industrial corporation that was the organizational framework in many ways for the vastly expanded wartime military.

In short, the UK and the USA had a lot more to work with when overcoming the awkwardness of the first half of the war yoked together.

22731

Crimea does have ports, and I don’t think Ukraine can begin to interdict merchant shipping. Still, it would force more effort from Russia to support it that way. And even without causing major problems in the peninsula, recapturing the rest of the south would give a bunch of advantages including much shorter front lines and control of the big nuclear plant.