abrandt
22732
And here is where precision weapons with enough reach to cover Crimea would be incredibly helpful. Obviously that’s the end of the Kerch bridge. But also, while Ukraine may not be able to interdict cargo vessels, with a theoretical friend who had advanced surveillance capabilities, Ukraine could reliably strike ships docked in port. That leaves Russia with having to use much smaller craft to try to ferry supplies across the strait and avoid death raining on them from above.
Yes, but…
Firstly, unlawful combatants are still entitled to humane treatment and a fair trail; and proving that any individual merc had actually and personally committed murder might be quite hard. Summary execution is considered a bit naughty in the Conventions.
But secondly, the Geneva Conventions definition of being a mercenary include not being a citizen or resident of one of the parties to the conflict. So the vast majority of Wagner mercenaries are still actually lawful combatants.
Timex
22735
Well, consider a situation where you capture a band of mercenaries who were actually captured while engaging in active combat with your troops.
You can absolutely prosecute them just like you would if you had a gang of criminals with automatic weapons who started shooting at people. It would be a pretty easy case to make. They would go to jail, and if the country allowed it, they could totally be executed.
“Your honor, my client never personally fired his weapon.” Prove them wrong.
I don’t doubt that most countries could find some crime that would be easy to prosecute. Outside the USA, possession of firearms would certainly be easy enough. But you’re talking fairly low level stuff that takes execution off the table of punishments.
Anyway, as I said, this is not in general going to apply to Wagner personnel.
Is this a thing that has happened?
The GLSDBs which Ukraine will be getting soon, should be able to reach Sevastopol from the current front line, though not the bridge.
jpinard
22739
Is there something wrong with my computer? I don’t hear any sound.
ShivaX
22740
That might work in the US, but most places it wouldn’t.
Also in the US they’d charge you with felony murder anyway.
Being part of an armed gang actively shooting people is a crime, even if you’re just hanging out with them holding a gun and telling jokes.
Hey they worked on Godzilla.
It is a stealth bomber not a noisy bomber. If you could hear it, it would not be very good at its job.
It happened in (occupied) Ukraine.
No clue. i didn’t actually listen to it, just looked at the glorious boom-ness.
Wagner would be an interesting case I think. Uniformed, organized combatants from one of the combatant nations would be hard I think to characterize as mercenaries for the purposes of laws of war stuff (IANAL etc. caveats apply, though in cases like this “law” is a misnomer mostly). It might be seen as very much like the various ground warfare organizations the Germans fielded during WWII, for example; I am not clear at all as to how much importance international law such as it is attaches to your membership in a specific national military organization. Each country has different laws and rules, and all that is necessary I think is that the formation in question be in some way formally sanctioned by the combatant nation. I could definitely be wrong however. It just seems though that any other approach would be unworkable.
Timex
22745
If we were to imagine that this were literally just a criminal case in the US, with just random criminals who were in a uniformed gang, carrying automatic weapons during an engagement with our military… I’m pretty sure that convicting them of murder would be super easy, barely an inconvenience. Under our laws, there are all kinds of ways you would be responsible for murder in that case even if you didn’t fire the bullet that killed a specific soldier.
Let’s then transfer that situation to one like Ukraine, where you are a mercenary invading their country. I wish you the best of luck in trying to come up with some bullshit legal defense that convinces a jury of Ukrainians.
Since you have no protections under the Geneva conventions, you are at the mercy Ukraine’s regular criminal justice system. If they have capital punishment, I’m thinking that’s what you are going to get. And it will need totally legal under international law.
Pitch Meeting references are tight.
Alstein
22747
I think Crimea will be Russia’s red line- and the point they’d consider nuclear escalation. I would not support Ukraine opertions in Crimea for that reason, though I’d give them everything needed to retake 2014 position, and let them know if they agreed to let Russia keep or lease Crimea, they will have at a minimum, Japan levels of nuclear protection as long as they move towards EU standards, and this will be made public.
Timex
22748
Let’s think that one out.
So Russia loses Crimea, and then they decide to nuke something.
What is the sequence of events that follows that?
Because I can’t think of any way that plays out well for Russia.
Alstein
22749
This would be their equivalent of losing Hawaii. I would expect rationality to go out the window, especially given Russia’s centuries long struggle for access to the Black Sea, which they consider as vital to their status as a Great Power.
They likely would be willing to do a hail mary in that situation, even if they think 99% odds it wouldn’t play well.
I also expect losing Crimea would get Putin toppled , either internally or through uprising.
Timex
22750
I don’t think we needed to invade Hawaii in 2014 and seize then from a foreign country, did we?
Also, our military is competent.
By that token, a lot of our soldiers should be extradited to Afghanistan.
Some amount of kills were unarmed teenagers on mopeds holding radios, which our lawyers (for at least some time) decided made them unlawful combatants, so it was within the ROE, and our snipers splattered their brains in accordance with international law. At least that was our assumption at the time.
This is why people generally do well to respect international law. What applies to a Wagnerite applies to a lot of others.
And I’m not sure why you’d seek to get them on mercenary charges, when they do far worse than simply waging war. Seems like it would be a pretty major error.
