Sure, that seems like a likely outcome of Russia breaking the Ukrainian army and seizing full military control of the country. But as the British showed us in the Boer war, any occupier willing to fully commit to brutality and evil can win a guerilla war.
I’m certainly not hoping Russia wins and I think the odds are currently against them. But I also can’t agree to anyone who states that a Russian loss is a foregone conclusion.
Dejin
22873
The sad thing is they’ve gained absolutely nothing by making such a hash of it in the last week. They could have just started with this. I suppose maybe it’s playing to the domestic audience, and Scholz’s voters know that he only bowed to tremendous international pressure? Or maybe some deal has been struck with the US, since we’re now seeing reports on Abrams being sent.
I’m not sure that applies today. The Boers did not have cell phones, drones, missiles, and the ability to seriously mess up their occupiers like the Ukrainians do. Nor were they surrounded on at least two sides by people who sympathized with them and were actively helping them.
Not, mind you, that I am sympathetic to the Boers, who after all were a bunch of racist fucks who oppressed the indigenous South Africans before the Brits got around to doing that.
I think it does but would be delighted to be wrong. The tactics have evolved, but at the end of the day if you don’t give a shit about the population of a place you are occupying and are willing to commit massacres and atrocities then I think a guerilla war is winnable. Since Russia has already shown a penchant for shipping big chunks of people off to prison camps in the pieces of Ukraine they’ve taken, I can’t imagine they would balk at the level of atrocities required to win a guerilla war.
Dejin
22876
That’s just so weird. At least in American politics, that would have very much been the right-wing’s position, not the left’s. I think there’s still a neo-con Republican group still there that is totally for American hegemony.
I’m fairly left (although not by Qt3 standards), I don’t really view myself as supporting American hegemony. I think of it as democracy against authoritarianism and I suspect most on the left that support Ukraine feel the same way (see for example the German Green Party, I’m pretty sure they don’t see themselves as trying to strengthen American hegemony).
Having liberal democracies win over authoritarian governments is very important IMO — if that makes me for “strengthening American hegemony” so be it, but I’m happy to have democratic Europe or Asia/Oceana (e.g., Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, New Zealand) taking the lead, so it’s not really about America.
Dejin
22877
How does that analysis play out with Russia in Afghanistan? Didn’t they get chased out? Were they just not willing to be brutal enough?
I think “American Hegemony” in this instance is closer to your last paragraph. Most everyone in the States is a-ok to just keep our country as is geographically, but export our most unique asset, Democracy. Not the corrupt version some like the Turks believe they have, but the real kind where people have a vote and use it to put people in place they want there to vote the way they’d like them to. Basically, we’d like people to be good folks in general.
If that’s “American Hegemony”, that’s fine. Figure the rest out among yourselves, but don’t let some dictator run the show.
KevinC
22879
That’s been the MO from the start. Does the right thing, but makes sure he gets a chance to punch himself in the dick first.
antlers
22880
I wish the West had shown no+limit support for Ukraine in the early weeks of the war, with the promise of tanks, fighter planes and maybe a no-fly zone. At that point it might’ve been possible to deter Putin into declaring victory once it became clear that his war aims weren’t achievable at anything close to his imagined price.
Now Putin and his cronies have spent months propagandizing the war and moving Russia towards a total-war footing-- and anyone even near power in Russia who had doubts about or even a realistic view of the war has been shown the window. I fear this process is irreversible without regime change; first because Putin knows he can’t show weakness, and second because he totally believes his own bullshit. He thinks he can’t be defeated by the West as long as he shows a greater willingness to sacrifice lives for his ends, and I think he genuinely believes that if things really turn south for him Xi and Modi will bail him out because they see the decline of the power of the US as in their shared interest.
What Russia (and the world) really needs is a “General’s Plot” like in WWII Germany, but successful this time. Unfortunately, that doesn’t seem very likely.
KevinC
22881
P&R now needs to pass a DC15 Will check or the thread will be cursed with three days of circular discussion on the value (or lack thereof) of a NFZ!
Ex-SWoo
22882
The problem is that they’re trying to do this while also claiming a bunch of new land for Russia - if they went back to pre-war borders it would be a lot simpler
This new article by Gary Kasparov and former political priosoner MIKHAIL KHODORKOVSKY, lays out a pretty comprehensive road map for a post Putin Russia. I think he is saying similar things as you.
Rather than destabilizing Russia and its neighbors, a Ukrainian victory would eliminate a powerful revanchist force and boost the cause of democracy worldwide. Pro-democracy Russians who reject the totalitarian Putin regime—a group to which the authors belong—are doing what they can to help Ukraine liberate all occupied territories and restore its territorial integrity in accordance with the internationally recognized borders of 1991. We are also planning for the day after Putin. The Russian Action Committee, a coalition of opposition groups in exile that we co-founded in May 2022, aims to ensure that Ukraine is justly compensated for the damage caused by Putin’s aggression, that all war criminals are held accountable, and that Russia is transformed from a rogue dictatorship into a parliamentary federal republic. The looming end of Putin’s reign need not be feared, in other words; it should be welcomed with open arms
I know lots of people as think of Kasparov as “just” a world champion chess player, but I believe at this point, he has probably spent more of his life fighting for a democratic Russia than he did playing competitive chess.
.Don’t Fear Putin’s Demise
The British ‘won’ the war in 1902, yet effectively agreed to South African independence by 1910, and voters promptly put the anti-British party in power. The country was nominally in the British realm, but completely self-governing, and there was an armed revolt against the government in 1914 over the decision to join the British side in WWI. Basically, the British won, then left anyway. They never tried to occupy and rule the country for anything more than a handful of years. You could say that their victory, as a practical matter, was a fiction. They won the shooting war, but lost the hearts and minds war, so ultimately had to abandon the place.
Aleck
22885
I have to admit I lack the expertise to fully figure out whether these guys are right, but this sounds way too much like the nonsense of Ahmed Chalabi for me to take it with anything but a very large (and unhealthy) dose of salt. I can’t really tell how much is wishful and delusional thinking vs. reality, but as an amateur critic, there seems to be more of the former than the latter.
This was possible before they annexed the four territories. Once the annexation was carried out, Putin had painted himself into a corner. The constitution doens’t actually allow Putin (or any other Russian ruler, for that matter) to voluntarily surrender those four territories. So even if Putin dies tomorrow, any successor of his is going to have to navigate difficult political challenges to reach peace.
This is of course one reason why the idea of peace negotiations are dead at the moment. Neither Putin nor his successors have an easy out from the war now.
schurem
22887
Oh ffs do you really believe that? look at american politics the last six years. Rule of law. democracy. what a sham.
If any of that were real, you’d have more than two parties, you’d have those jan 6 traitors locked the fuck up, the orange ape would be rotting in prison and cops wouldn’t be to coloured people what cancer is to white folk and gerrymandering would be a weird porn kink term.
No I’m not buying that mate. Bullshit. Your version of democracy is corrupt as fuck. If you want to see real democracy, take a good look at Zwitserland, Germany, France, Scandinavia or us, the Dutch.
However. I am all for american hegemony. the hegemon brings (sort of) peace and prosperity. And you guys do have a strong idealistic current towards rule of law and such, which is good. Much better than the raw power hungryness of the erdogans, putins, orbans and bolsanaros of this world.
KevinC
22888
Why do you hate our freedom so, schurem?
schurem
22889
Because I can imagine having to live in your country with a healthy amount of melatonin. You guys aint nearly as free as y’all believe yourselves to be, but @KevinC I think I’m preaching to the choir here ;-)
KevinC
22890
Yessir, my post and had an implied /s, ;), etc. :)
Tortilla
22891
I share your view (and I’m American) but a lot of Americans get really wrapped up in their notion of American superiority and take pride in it. Good luck convincing them that American democracy is not the One True Way ™. It’s an article of faith with them.
And to clarify, I’m speaking to the topic and not trying to diss Dave Long.
